New CA poll post SC: Biden gets 7 point bump [View all]

[honest.abe]

Bernie Sanders still has a large lead in the California primary, but after the South Carolina primary it has shrunk significantly due to a 7-point bump for Joe Biden since Point Blank Political’s last survey. Sanders’ 33.9-percent vote-share is largely unchanged since PBP’s pre-South Carolina poll, but Biden’s support has increased from 14 percent to 21.6 percent after his victory in South Carolina. This is the third California poll Point Blank Political has conducted in the last week; over the last week Joe Biden has seen a 10-point increase following the debates and South Carolina. All other candidates’ support was largely unchanged, except for Pete Buttigieg who’s support dropped 3 percent in the waning hours of his now suspended campaign. The data was collected during the 24-hour period from the evening of February 29th, just as Biden declared victory in South Carolina, to the evening of March 1st, just as Buttigieg was suspending his campaign. The sample size was 1220 and the margin of error is 4.1 percent (95-percent confidence interval).

The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The model’s weighting efficiency was 45 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.

https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/2020-ca-dem-primary-post-sc/

This is good news for Biden but I suspect the vote tomorrow will be even better for him. If accurate this will be a huge blow to Sanders plan to accumulate a big lead over Biden after Super Tuesday. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate (Biden or Sanders) gaining much on the other.