Hillary and Trump both spent three days in Michigan during the final month of the campaign. Clinton spent five days in Pennsylvania, including her final major rally in Philadelphia with the Obamas on the eve of the election, while Trump campaigned there seven days that final month. Neither campaigned in Wisconsin, which, I guess Hillary could have made pushed for, and maybe it would've won her the state, but that doesn't win her the electoral votes.
Hillary could have spent an extra day or two in Pennsylvania but it's easier to say all this with the added benefit of hindsight.
The fact is: Hillary did campaign in PA that final month - spending nearly as many days there as Trump. The fact is: no one really expected PA to shift like it did - as most every poll had Clinton leading, in some instances by a margin outside the MOE. The fact is: even Trump probably thought he had an uphill battle in PA and it's why he spent a bulk of his time in Florida (10 visits).
Pete's rationale is too easy. It's a big reason I've become disappointed with his campaign.
Hillary didn't do that much worse than Obama among white, male voters. Trump won 64% in 2016. Romney won the group with 60%.
Hillary actually did better among white women than Obama did - winning 47% of the vote, while Obama won only 45%. That difference almost entirely negates the decline she saw among white men. Overall, Hillary lost the white vote by sixteen points in 2016. Obama lost it by fifteen - essentially the exact same.
Where Hillary struggled was matching Obama's enthusiasm with minorities in PA.
Blacks made up only 10% of the voting in PA in 2016. In 2012, they made up 13%. Obama won blacks with 93% of the vote. Hillary won 'em with 92%. Essentially the same. But that three-percent was significant enough that had turnout been the same, Hillary wins PA.
Whites aren't going to vote Democratic again. Democrats have to stop chasing this mythical unicorn. Minority voters is where it's at. No amount of pandering to whites is going to bring PA back in the Democratic column. It might make a win bigger - but Hillary did about as well as Obama did in 2012 with white voters all things considered. She did worse, though, with black voters since they didn't turn out at near the level and frankly, that's where the nominee has to tap into - and I only see a handful of candidates who can energize minority voters.
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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