I vote tomorrow in the TX primary. Persuade me to vote for your favorite candidate.

[karynnj]

67. I am in the same situation as you - though voting in Vermont

On 538, there is only one poll - several weeks old. It does not help me choose between Warren and Biden. In that poll, only Bernie is above 15%, but he is nowhere near the 86% he got in 2016. The closest is Buttigieg, who polled at 13%. Warren is higher than Biden, but both are in single digits, with Warren higher. Given the last few weeks, it is likely that BOTH could be higher. (Also, there was some undecided in that poll.) The poll does not reflect Warren's take down of Bloomberg or the stream of Biden endorsements. It is possible that either or both could get above 15%.

I am undecided because I really like Warren on corruption. For a while, a second reason was that she, though limited by a Congress that will not pass many things she speaks of, she would push Congress to get the last inch possible. At this point, I question whether Biden, with his three decade plus time in the Senate, chairing committees where they crafted big bills - including whole stand alone programs as provisions - designed to get the votes needed. It is clear that Obama respected his skills here and he was a top emissary to Congress - if not the top one. Given where even the 51st vote in the Senate is, BOTH Biden and Warren are to the left and on most issues pushing in the same direction, I wonder if what they would get out of Congress might be quite similar.

So, what is the best vote to lead to either of these people becoming the nominee? Obviously, keeping Bernie from getting 100% of VT's votes helps on this. Questions to myself - Do I assume that with the people who dropped out, both will likely get past 15%? Is one more likely than the other? Warren was higher, but Biden almost had a mini Democratic convention with the endorsements in Texas last night. With no data, it is a judgment call which vote is less likely to be wasted by being under 15%.

VT has relatively few delegates - so it will clearly not be a big topic of conversation tonight. It may be the first to report, but that will likely just be to call the state for Bernie. We vote on paper ballots, so it usually is pretty fast. Only later at night will the delegate numbers be determined. Any delegates won by Warren or Biden - help stop Bernie. In addition, delegates won by Biden count twice in terms of Bernie Sanders lead (subtracted from Bernie, added to Biden). VT's numbers are very small, but what if Bernie losing some in VT makes the difference of being above 100 ahead and below 100 - is that a change that is psychologically important. Would Bernie doing less well than in 2016, make a difference.

Still thinking.