****BRAND SPANKING NEW MICHIGAN POLL**** Biden 54% Sanders 33%

[Jarqui]

29. Compared to the 2016 exit poll for Michigan primary

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/mi/dem

The recent poll has 59% women vs 55% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 27% blacks vs 21% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 14% age 18-29 vs 19% in 2016 - which favors Biden
The recent poll has 29% age 65+ vs 20% in 2016 - which favors Biden

The demographics in this poll slant towards Biden
Therefore, the poll probably overstates his lead.

The problem for Sanders is that he needs to win Michigan BIG to keep his campaign alive because he's probably going to lose Missouri and Mississippi big and may lose Washington (polling behind), North Dakota (polling behind) & Idaho (whose Democratic politicians endorsed Biden 100%)

So even though this poll may be slanted demographically to favor Biden, there's no way you could adjust it and extrapolate a lead for Sanders because the margins for Biden are simply too large.

Michigan is quite important. Since taking office, Trump's approval in the state has fallen 18 points
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
So Michigan is a prime state to flip back to blue.
It now has a Democratic governor so it is harder to steal the vote.

If Biden wins Michigan, he can also claim having the best shot to win Pennsylvania since he was born in Scranton, PA and those two states along with Hillary's blue states get Biden to 269 Electoral votes.

If Sanders doesn't win Tuesday, it get really hard for him to win anything in the rest of March. At that point, he's down too far to come back.