Democratic Primaries

Progressive2020

(713 posts)

43. Yes, Agreed

Wed Feb 20, 2019, 08:50 PM

Feb 2019

They will split the progressive/left vote. I would say that perception does matter, as you say. Just because two people have similar voting records does not mitigate that some people might be viewed as a "true blue progressive" versus someone who votes based on a political calculus that gets them ahead.

I am not accusing anyone of this, but what I am saying is that hard core progressives want someone who is progressive in their core, not just someone who votes on their issues. That said, I am a pragmatist. If someone votes in a way that I like, is a person of good character, and can beat the tar out of Trump, then I very likely will support them.

Just a minor note- I am not sure that Biden is from New England as you say. My understanding is that he is from Pennsylvania, a mid-Atlantic state, not a New England state.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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What, aside from wishful thinking, makes anyone think... [View all] Garrett78 Feb 2019 OP

Who is this Harris person you speak of? Dennis Donovan Feb 2019 #1

It's not a diss, and I made no mention of Harris. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #26

Who is the Harris person YOU are speaking of? The OP didn't say anything about Harris. My fear pnwmom Feb 2019 #64

I am not sure Bernie will have the same following as before katmondoo Feb 2019 #2

No, in all likelihood, he'll do worse than last time. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #3

Agreed! NurseJackie Feb 2019 #7

I don't know that familiarity will hurt or help him, but... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #27

Another Point Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #38

That's what I mean by appealing to the same constituency. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #39

Yes, Agreed Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #43

Progressive, of course, is an ambiguous term that nobody owns. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #46

Is That Accurate? Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #53

He's been very dismissive of "identity politics" and the role racism played in Trump's so-called win Garrett78 Feb 2019 #55

Fair Enough Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #57

I mean...that's just a function of math. TCJ70 Feb 2019 #10

There won't be 10+ candidates for long. By Super Tuesday, maybe 5 or 6. If that. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #19

agreed. lindysalsagal Feb 2019 #109

He's not looking good in NH already where he has near 100% name recognition. honest.abe Feb 2019 #4

Right, so why is anyone concerned and fretting KPN Feb 2019 #5

I'm sure you know why. CrossingTheRubicon Feb 2019 #6

I frankly don't and don't understand it. KPN Feb 2019 #17

A person can stand no chance and cause harm. Those aren't mutually exclusive. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #15

I don't think anyone can say that with any KPN Feb 2019 #20

And history tends to repeat itself. MrsCoffee Feb 2019 #67

I understand the concern, but here's why I don't think history will repeat itself, per se: Garrett78 Feb 2019 #68

He is a bull in a china shop. honest.abe Feb 2019 #76

Wrong post placement. Self deleting. n/t Tom Rinaldo Feb 2019 #106

I'm gobsmacked. WheelWalker Feb 2019 #8

lol Cha Feb 2019 #16

Yeah, it's pretty gobsmacking. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #63

Most of the declared candidates' campaigns are based on wishful thinking. Skinner Feb 2019 #9

That's not really true. The reason we knew on Super Tuesday in 2016 that the race was over... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #18

It's the equivalent of February 2015 now BeyondGeography Feb 2019 #78

It's not about thinking any candidate is the one. But it's simply not the case that... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #85

Too much of a choice. Butterflylady Feb 2019 #11

I dunno. He has some advantages this time around. TCJ70 Feb 2019 #12

another one KayF Feb 2019 #13

Vote-splitting has a variety of causes and impacts. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #21

So it could go favorably or unfavorably... TCJ70 Feb 2019 #73

2016 was much more favorable for Sanders. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #22

Losing a lot of the votes he got last time. smirkymonkey Feb 2019 #118

Yep, as I suggested in the post (#22) right above yours, a large field doesn't... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #120

That is why we hold elections. CentralMass Feb 2019 #14

But it's not purely a guessing game. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #23

Demographics Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #40

I'm not talking about where one campaigns, nor am I talking about a general election campaign. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #45

He won't be the nominee. IluvPitties Feb 2019 #24

That's really the only question, and it'll depend on IA and NH. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #25

He keeps half of his support in a twelve person field. WeekiWater Feb 2019 #28

See posts #21 and #22. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #30

I strongly disagree with 21. WeekiWater Feb 2019 #32

Of course the first 2 states are where he's likely to do best. That's kind of the point. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #37

Votes are votes and there are only so many to go around. WeekiWater Feb 2019 #41

I'm not sure you're understanding what I'm saying. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #47

CNN, MSNBC and Politico just love him and will carry his water comradebillyboy Feb 2019 #29

The last question in my OP is the most crucial. Media love can't overcome that. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #33

Indeed, almost as many people disapprove of Bernie as approve of him comradebillyboy Feb 2019 #36

Even if Sanders isn't disliked, per se, he simply can't win without doing considerably better... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #48

I don't disagree. My point is Bernie is still the media's darling and the media comradebillyboy Feb 2019 #62

Picking ANY likely nominee now is "wishful thinking"! Shemp Howard Feb 2019 #31

It's completely different. Again, this isn't pure guesswork. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #34

Sanders Progressive2020 Feb 2019 #35

With a crowded field, it possible that EW, CB, KH, and AK split up the HRC and ex-Bernie vote aikoaiko Feb 2019 #42

See posts 21, 37 and 47. Vote-splitting isn't a binary phenomenon. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #49

You asked how people can see a path and I gave you one. aikoaiko Feb 2019 #50

And I responded to your post by pointing out that that's not how vote-splitting works. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #52

I've no idea who the nominee will be bhikkhu Feb 2019 #44

Maybe the fact that he got 43% of D primary voters last time shanny Feb 2019 #51

See posts #21 and #22. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #54

... shanny Feb 2019 #56

In 2016, there were people who still thought it was a horse race after Super Tuesday. It wasn't. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #58

"Add ten momentum points for every state he won in a row," LongtimeAZDem Feb 2019 #59

It pretty much was that silly. Hundreds of posts from those in denial. I was here. I remember. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #61

Bernie math. MrsCoffee Feb 2019 #69

I really want to post the video, but who needs another alert? :D LongtimeAZDem Feb 2019 #75

Gonna have to pace myself, lol. MrsCoffee Feb 2019 #77

OK shanny Feb 2019 #60

And there's no reason to think he'll get any more this time. I don't know any Hillary voters pnwmom Feb 2019 #65

There seems to be this assumption that vote-splitting is a binary phenomenon. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #66

What reason is there to think he'd do considerably better among ANY group of Hillary voters, pnwmom Feb 2019 #74

And the Never Hillary voters aren't necessarily going to opt for Sanders in 2020. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #125

223k donors think you're wrong Lazy Daisy Feb 2019 #70

Not stupid but naive, perhaps. And donors don't determine outcomes. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #71

and there you go again being divisive Lazy Daisy Feb 2019 #98

I don't see anyone claiming those you named are likely to be our nominee. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #104

223K donors? Thirty million people voted in the last Democratic primary frazzled Feb 2019 #84

Think about that Lazy Daisy Feb 2019 #99

Frazzled said nothing of the kind, just that Bernie's donors won't determine the outcome. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #101

I never said money doesn't matter, just that it's not dispositive frazzled Feb 2019 #108

I was freaked out by his "If I run" email. betsuni Feb 2019 #72

Bernie is tone-deaf. He's the kind of guy who can't grasp colorblind racism. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #86

When I got that "if I run" email, I fell off my chair. It's as if "if" was equivocal. George II Feb 2019 #117

The betting odds which tend to be pretty accurate. Harris and Sanders are neck and neck Quixote1818 Feb 2019 #79

Vote-splitting won't work the way some are imagining it will. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #90

I think some of them are hoping he pulls a Trump. Amimnoch Feb 2019 #80

We don't have winner-take-all primaries like the GOP does. And vote-splitting isn't... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #91

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2019 #81

The notion that he moved the party left is more myth than reality. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #92

He wont even poll in the top 5 leftynyc Feb 2019 #82

Your last question is irrelevant Cartoonist Feb 2019 #83

The last question is the most critical of all. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #88

Actually, his chances are much better than any of us want to believe Blue_Tires Feb 2019 #87

Vote-splitting isn't the binary phenomenon that some seem to think it is. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #89

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2019 #93

Just wanted to point out that the one block Sanders struggles with is white men Quixote1818 Feb 2019 #94

Primary votes is a whole other matter. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #102

The field will get much smaller after the first few primaries. If Sanders doesn't... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #96

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2019 #97

Some people think he "deserves" to be the nominee because he lost last time Runningdawg Feb 2019 #95

I don't get the sense that people feel that way. Instead... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #100

Once the Mueller stuff fades, Trump's approval rating will automatically rebound Awsi Dooger Feb 2019 #103

I think you posted in the wrong thread. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #105

The first actual votes are almost a year away. ANYONE can catrch fire Tom Rinaldo Feb 2019 #107

The last question in my OP is the critical one. Nobody has addressed it. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #111

I smell fear, and a lot of it at that. liftallboats Feb 2019 #110

LOL. Try answering the last question in my OP. You'd be the 1st to do so. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #112

From Bernie's fans? BannonsLiver Feb 2019 #121

I am glad that all candidates will be vetted this cycle Gothmog Feb 2019 #113

He definitely got treated with kid gloves. And the media was actually quite favorable, contrary... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #114

With two black candidates and several woman running he'll do much worse overall. George II Feb 2019 #115

I think he's essentially done after New Hampshire. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #116

Prediction BannonsLiver Feb 2019 #122

As I said in post #22, I think he'll find it tougher to justify doing what he did last time. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #123

There is a cult of personality built around him Politicub Feb 2019 #119

Agreed. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #124

It is a cult of policy. liftallboats Feb 2019 #126

I don't care about logic or analysis forklift Feb 2019 #127

6 milly on the score board makes me emotional!!! liftallboats Feb 2019 #128

I appreciate your honesty. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #129