These Nevada poll numbers are disturbing

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Nevada has 36% conservatives and 25% liberals, which is identical to Florida

I have no idea how so many people are taking Nevada for granted. We have been overachieving lately, thanks to early emphasis and sophistication in Clark County, which dictates the state. But because one county has been so vital, it is equally available for the other side to figure things out and make gains, just like the GOP has done in Florida with Miami-Dade County.

I lived in Las Vegas for 24 years. I've mentioned many times that many white male friends who supported Gore and Obama then switched to Trump in 2016. That dynamic is playing out all over the place. So it is a battle between our steady demographic gains elsewhere and the simple fact that white non-college educated types were moving right in the first place, and then Trump yanked many more of them.

Hispanics have a tendency toward benefit of a doubt toward the incumbent. I mentioned that last year before any related polling. Now it has shown up in polling. Nevada is one of the states that is up for grabs depending on who squeezes out of Clark County and whether or not there is some shift in the other direction among Hispanics.

Bottom line, Florida is not as hopeless as some here prefer to believe, and Nevada is not as guaranteed. It is amazing how many states we are depending on that are in that teeter totter area of 6-11% more conservatives than liberals. The national gap is 9%.