Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!


(3,493 posts)
46. Biden's numbers have been constant.
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 03:16 AM
Mar 2020

In the primaries he was national leader for a long time, then slipped, then his numbers snapped back to form on Super Tuesday.

Biden has consistently led Trump in national polling by +7 on average. (Harry Enten spoke about this the other day).

Biden is boring and gaffe prone but is viewed as genuine and empathetic - and experienced. I think this is what insulates him from attacks. People know/like 'Uncle Joe' even though he's not exciting.

He did much better with white working class voters (including in the Midwest/blue wall states) this time than Hillary did, who struggled against Bernie in this regard.

Biden's weakness is youth and progressives. Latino support is OK but could be better. Harris is still the best choice for VP because she's a star with the resume to be president. Warren may boost progressives but has little appeal to PoC. Klobuchar is another Kaine would not inspire the Obama coaliton enough.

This could be more 1980 than 2004, as the economy falls apart (recession, high unemployment) due to the pandemic and Trump's bungling of it.

The lack of rallies etc and social distancing helps Joe and hurts Trump.

Basically I think Joe will win the GE the same way he won the primaries. It will seem as though he's running a weak campaign, then will suddenly spring back and win by a good margin.

But we're going to have to work hard, also on downballot races.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
It better be way more than 289. drray23 Mar 2020 #1
That's with 68 still in the toss-up category. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #3
Depending on the body count come November, I think Trump could lose all 50 states nt Fiendish Thingy Mar 2020 #4
Not happening. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #5
I agree! MyOwnPeace Mar 2020 #8
And three are even higher Polybius Mar 2020 #22
Gallup is right-leaning, open-ended shit poll, YouGov is an online poll. LenaBaby61 Mar 2020 #31
Maybe I was just being too pessimistic Polybius Mar 2020 #34
This wish is why I pasted the bits I did about Republicans. Hortensis Mar 2020 #10
Trump transcends their identity with the GOP. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #11
She seems so agree. Except that the pathology is the extreme Hortensis Mar 2020 #13
That's an interesting thought. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #14
Never in a million years Polybius Mar 2020 #18
America is ready for an adult in the WH. IluvPitties Mar 2020 #2
Not only READY...... MyOwnPeace Mar 2020 #9
Full Speed Ahead! nt. BlueIdaho Mar 2020 #6
Does this take into account Trump soaring COVID approval? Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #7
Oh, yes. She has real doubts that the kind of erosion Hortensis Mar 2020 #12
Where are you reading that? Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #15
Look at any recent polling Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #16
Also, a link Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #17
Gallup is utterly discredited DarthDem Mar 2020 #19
Why are you rockfordfile Mar 2020 #49
Who is Rachel B.? DarthDem Mar 2020 #20
She's an elections forecaster, but a bit of an outlier, Hortensis Mar 2020 #24
Thanks! What makes her an outlier? DarthDem Mar 2020 #33
:) Didn't come in the usual path. Methodology. Results. Hortensis Mar 2020 #35
Thanks DarthDem Mar 2020 #36
So, Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #21
Just out of curiosity, what did she predict in 2016? n/t totodeinhere Mar 2020 #23
She was new and didn't do a forecast. But it was a huge Hortensis Mar 2020 #25
Thanks. n/t totodeinhere Mar 2020 #27
Ohio cancels in person primary Aerator Mar 2020 #26
Not sure what's going up faster BidenBacker Mar 2020 #28
:) Not sure there'd be an "or." It would be very risky to Hortensis Mar 2020 #29
I'm almost positive Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #30
I was just being a little sarcastic in that last post and agree BidenBacker Mar 2020 #32
Yes, but factor in that COVID will be killing in November. Hortensis Mar 2020 #37
We're going to have to get incredibly lucky in two respects Awsi Dooger Mar 2020 #40
It would help Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #42
I don't blame the media BidenBacker Mar 2020 #43
What you're saying is no doubt true, Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #44
Vent away, buddy! BidenBacker Mar 2020 #45
wtf are you talking about? rockfordfile Mar 2020 #50
I had just seen BidenBacker Mar 2020 #41
Most likely rockfordfile Mar 2020 #51
It's not rockfordfile Mar 2020 #47
Rachel Bitecofer has no clue regarding situational influence Awsi Dooger Mar 2020 #38
Trump will lose a lot of States rockfordfile Mar 2020 #48
Holy cow!!! Peacetrain Mar 2020 #39
Biden's numbers have been constant. radius777 Mar 2020 #46
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»Rachel Bitecofer electora...»Reply #46