Some Thoughts on Buttigieg Taking Off and Warren Seeming to be Grounded

[Tom Rinaldo]

52. Warren is still in the thick of it for this stage of the primary season

It might be different if there already were a runaway favorite, but attention is scattered among so many viable candidates. Warren has brought in funds adequate to staff the earliest contests and a basic national apparatus. Unlike other serious candidates like Gillibrand and Hickenlooper and Castro, she gets a reasonable amount of media coverage. And the coverage she gets (aside from the coverage she gets asking why doesn't she have even more support) is generally positive, and focused on the serious policy proposals she is making.

Most public attention so far has focused either on the two familiar presidential war horses, Biden and Bernie, or on our "new blood candidates" like Mayor Pete, Beto, and Harris. That hasn't left much room in the spotlight, but Warren is still outperforming some very serious candidates like Booker and Klobuchar.

Warren needs to begin making a move up in the polls once the debates begin in earnest. She is like a race horse running in the middle of the pack with most of the race still to go. Way too early to tell whether she will fade or instead is actually well positioned.