Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I think the Primaries are going to tear the Democratic base apart aren't they? [View all]CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Note: For the record I am a lifelong Democrat. I registered at 18 in 1978. I haven't missed an election. I was an ardent supporter of Hillary in 2008 .
I state that IMO and by the numbers Sanders voters in 2016 were far more loyal to the party the previous Democratic primary voters whose candidate lost. I've quoted the relative supporting analysis from the article linked below. IMO the most obstinate block of voters are Hillary supporters. I got over myself in 2008 and voted ted Senator Obama. I also voted for Hillary in 2016 after Bernie lost.
For 2020 I think that Bernie Sanders is the best candidate. However should he lose I will of course vote for the nominee.
The group I would worry not following suit if Bernie wins are the Hillary supporters ftom 2008.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/
Sander-Trump voters in 2016
"How many Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump?
Two surveys estimate that 12 percent of Sanders voters voted for Trump. A third survey suggests it was 6 percent.
First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump."
"Second, the same 12 percent figure emerges in the 2016 VOTER Survey, which was also conducted by YouGov and overseen by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (of which I am research director). In 2016, this survey interviewed 8,000 respondents in July, when they were asked their primary vote preference, and then in December, when they were asked their general election preference. This has the advantage of measuring primary preference closer to the primaries "
Hillary McCain in 2008
"Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.
An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent."
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided