Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Worrying trend with Senator Sanders' supporters [View all]Celerity
(53,508 posts)truly worry me. It is a petrol can looking for a swan vesta. So many structurally dissimilar metrics to 2016 in a negative way. A 40 to 45% (or higher) walk-away ratio, with a 25% or so possible straight to Trump vote quotient contained within that overall yield is not at all a good thing.
If Sanders captures 12 million votes and loses out on the nomination in a contentious multi-ballot convention, that (if the current statistical trend-lines hold true as his percentage of support scales up) extrapolates out to a direct defection rate (even with fewer overall votes captured) of around 3 million votes straight to Trump, and another 2 to 3 million to a 3rd party(s). That is a massive increase over the 2016 numbers. That would be catastrophic. He simply must cement those new supporters to stay in-tent even if he fails to land the nomination. The onus is ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT on HIM and him alone to do that.
The more hostile a stance towards our overall Democratic Party apparatus he himself takes, the more he inculcates a defector mentality into the minds and ultimately the actionable intent of his baseline support to do just that, walk away.
It will become a self re-enforcing negative feedback loop that culminates in a viscous circle that truly raises the re-election chances of the monster orange bloat to a maddening degree.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden