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Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I believe that Sanders is not electable. You can argue, but this is true [View all]Gothmog
(181,155 posts)285. Nate Silver- Sanders Can Win, But He Isn't Polling Like A Favorite
Nate thinks that it is possible for sander to win the nomination but this is not likely. sanders is not going to be the nominee of the party. sanders thinks that getting 30% of the primary vote is sufficient which means taking the fight to the contested convention. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/
Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys dont have a great track record. From our research on the history of past primary polls, I found 15 candidates from past nomination processes who, like Sanders, (i) polled at an average of between 15 percent and 25 percent4 in national polls in the first six months of the year before the Iowa caucuses5 and (ii) who had high or very high name recognition.6.....
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
sanders will not be the nominee if sanders only gets 30% of the primary vote. There are too many real democrats who have long memories and who will not forgive or forget. If this gets to a floor fight, the delegates for the other candidates will not support sanders and the super delegates will get to break any deadlocks after the first ballot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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I believe that Sanders is not electable. You can argue, but this is true [View all]
Stuart G
Mar 2019
OP
I never vote in a primary with my heart. I have always voted for the primary candidate
Autumn
Mar 2019
#125
I always vote wisely. I vote for the Democratic candidate in the primary who best
Autumn
Mar 2019
#129
You have a right to express your opinion but Your stats on how Sanders supporters voted are bizarre.
hedda_foil
Mar 2019
#131
Jill Stein wasn't the only one who tried to convince voters that Trump and HRC were both "evil". N/T
lapucelle
Mar 2019
#219
Those were the republicans Bernie won over that went back to the repub candidate
onit2day
Mar 2019
#192
Do you have a link with stats showing that BS to Trump voters were mostly Republicans?
lapucelle
Mar 2019
#214
That is pure speculation. Bernie has nothing to do with Stein and worked hard to get dems elected
onit2day
Mar 2019
#187
Guess that's why he leads in all the polls, why polls showed him beating Trump
onit2day
Mar 2019
#177
Yes, unlike much of Sanders' top campaign staffers, we'll vote for the DEMOCRATIC nominee.
George II
Mar 2019
#90
The terms of service for DU members state that they can be banned if they discourage other members
TexasTowelie
Mar 2019
#24
Because E. Warren would be vice president and Bernie believes He is best candidate& wants the job
onit2day
Mar 2019
#191
That is funny because Rachel Maddow used the Intercept whenever they break stories
JonLP24
Mar 2019
#197
I like living in the real world and I have a subscription to the Washington Post
Gothmog
Mar 2019
#213
That's nonsense. He has a great deal of support from A-A voters. He won key primaries last time
onit2day
Mar 2019
#179
Seriously! Somebody should tell Bernie, who's leading all fellow Democratic candidates who've
InAbLuEsTaTe
Mar 2019
#11
Could've sworn I said all fellow Democrats who've declared they're running in 2020...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Mar 2019
#97
Interesting that a guy who hasn't even announced yet is in first place, by a LOT.
George II
Mar 2019
#99
He will not win the nomination. He'll probably be in the lower tier of candidates delegate-wise...
George II
Mar 2019
#91
We don't need another center right corporate dem with years of baggage that's for sure
onit2day
Mar 2019
#194
Why not at least nominate a progressive Democrat this time who is more representative of what
InAbLuEsTaTe
Mar 2019
#206
No. But we need more than regular voters coming out to vote. We need passionate, all out, support --
pnwmom
Mar 2019
#35
No, he's saying that moderate Republicans and Independents will never vote for a socialist
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#79
I don't think anyone said that at all. And you're talking about "making this shit up"?
George II
Mar 2019
#87
No u can't Daisy...these endless Bernie bashin threads are gettin repetitive & frankly a lil boring.
InAbLuEsTaTe
Mar 2019
#152
For all candidates we need to think how they can handle the republican attack machine.
California_Republic
Mar 2019
#4
Mayor Pete has a LOT working for him to offset the attack machine for being gay
mr_lebowski
Mar 2019
#18
I agree-- he seems to be the "Trump of the Left" preferring fighting to governing...
TreasonousBastard
Mar 2019
#5
"there is a large and virulent anti-Bernie faction here and I worry about PUMAs."
Jarqui
Mar 2019
#121
Like BS's campaign co-chair, and his speechwriter, and his press secretary, and . . .
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#86
Since most Sanders supporters voted for Hillary in 2016 I think they will again. We know the
Nanjeanne
Mar 2019
#73
Of course. Dont know anyone of my Bernie supporter friends who didn't. But we are all
Nanjeanne
Apr 2019
#284
Almost certainly, because they will double down on the "he got robbed" canard
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#84
If you look at some of his top staffers, they won't stay home but they won't vote for the Democrat.
George II
Mar 2019
#102
The "safe candidate lost", because some self-identified progressives refused to vote for the
still_one
Mar 2019
#66
A lot of people thought Trump was electable; that's why we tried to warn Sanders supporters
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#80
Exactly. It's why he says in his rally speeches that he will support the Dem nominee and
Nanjeanne
Mar 2019
#76
The single most important idea that we have in this forum in this group of people: honesty.
Stuart G
Mar 2019
#74
Sanders is wasting people's time and energy. And they will be angry when he goes nowhere. Again.
PubliusEnigma
Mar 2019
#78
A guy that ran an extension cord to his basement apartment because he couldn't pay his bills
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#103
Anybody that reads my posts knows I am one of the most sanguine posters on our chances.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2019
#106
The idiot is no Superman. But we need a strong turnout driven by a strong ticket.
dalton99a
Mar 2019
#115
Exactly. You want to get people to vote for him again? Nominate a socialist carreer politician
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#123
If it's a referendum election Trump is likely done. If he can make it a choice he isn't.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2019
#130
Opinion: The myth of ideology, and why Democrats' energy isn't all on the left
Gothmog
Mar 2019
#142
Maybe you are right or maybe you are wrong but regardless if Sanders should win the nomination
cstanleytech
Mar 2019
#183
You haven't learned yet what a corporate centrist with years of baggage does for the race?
onit2day
Mar 2019
#184
A Warren Sanders ticket will lose badly in the rustbelt states we must win.
Demsrule86
Mar 2019
#190
I have removed some language from the original post. Sorry if I offended anyone
Stuart G
Mar 2019
#216
Didnt see the original post. For me this is simple, I will ONLY vote for a Democrat.
Eliot Rosewater
Mar 2019
#227
If he is nominated, I will zealously promote him to the very best of my ability. Period.
LongtimeAZDem
Mar 2019
#238
If he is nominated, I will support him as best I can. With money and work. We must win
Stuart G
Apr 2019
#265
What "institutional support within the Party" that "went to Nixon" are you talking about? (nt)
ehrnst
Mar 2019
#239
Unfortunately I think you are correct..Using Florida as an example is perfect.
Stuart G
Mar 2019
#263
So, I will say again..If Bernie is nominated, he already has divided the Democratic Party.!!!
Stuart G
Apr 2019
#270
He is unless moderates decide to sit out the election if they don't get their way.
doompatrol39
Apr 2019
#278
Yeah, just like the bloated asshole currently sitting in the WH wasn't electable in 2016 either.
mtnsnake
May 2019
#298
I understand what you're saying and if things stay the same, you'll be right.
aikoaiko
May 2019
#309
New CNN poll: A majority of Americans say they think President Trump is going to win a second term
Gothmog
Jun 2019
#318