Sanders has pulled ahead on this betting site

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Reference point toward wisdom of the crowd at a point in time

Red board players love to mock the betting sites if a favorite doesn't cash. Somehow they fail to recognize that a favorite is not always supposed to cash. For example, the favorites in this market right now are in the low 20s, which theoretically means 1 chance in 5. Hillary was the favorite but always modest, and in the 65-72% range in the closing days. That is a very minor favorite but people who don't speculate have no clue about that and somehow assign anything above 55 or 60 as a certainty. The betting sites didn't get it wrong nearly to the extent of Sam Wang and his 99% absurdity.

Market sites don't always get it right but they would absolutely crush the opinions of isolated individuals. For example, based on posts here the odds of a Democrat winning Texas in 2020 would be ridiculously favorable. The market sites would know to laugh at that. Fundamentals rule. Another example: Bredesen was always the betting underdog in Tennessee despite leading the polling for a long stretch. Day-to-day detail types wouldn't understand how that could be possible but it was a big yawn on sites like Predictit