Let's talk about Canada and China's talks and what it means for Trump and you.... - Belle of the Ranch [View all]

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Canada talking to China and what it means for Trump and you.

Back in May, we talked about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's likely plan for dealing with Trump's tariff nonsense. We said he'd probably keep a low profile until he could secure other trading partners. Then once the Canadian economy had diversified a bit and wasn't so reliant on the US, the economist in him would take over and he'd reapproach Trump from a stronger position. It's probably time to check in on him since he has been keeping a relatively low profile for a while.

Surprise. Carney is headed to China to talk trade and should be there Wednesday. He's scheduled to meet with the Chinese president at the end of the week. Here's a fun little fact about meetings between world leaders. If one leader shows up and has a meeting scheduled with the other head of state a few days after arriving, that generally means that there are some face-to-face meetings between the two country's teams that need to take place. But they expect an agreement to occur. In other words, the bulk of whatever they're discussing was worked out through intermediaries beforehand. I wonder what the discussions have been about.

In a statement, Carney said, "At a time of global trade disruption, Canada is focused on building a more competitive, sustainable, and independent economy. We're forging new partnerships around the world to transform our economy from one that has been reliant on a single trade partner.”

A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said they wanted to consolidate the momentum of improvement in China-Canada relations. Meanwhile, an editorial in the Global Times suggested they really wanted to talk about tariffs. We've mentioned it before, but it's worth repeating that when dealing with Chinese outlets that are state-run, their editorials are, as you might expect, the state's position.

All of that is flashing signs that Carney is doing well at finding other trading partners. Canada has also seen pretty good signs of significant growth with Indonesia and Singapore. In fact, when looking at the year-over-year for January through September of 2025, Canada actually more than made up for the decline in US trade. They lost about $13 billion in exports to the US, but picked up about $17 billion from China, the EU, Indonesia, Singapore, and the UK. If the trip to China goes well and Carney can bolster Canada's position further, he might see it as a time to reapproach the US again.

It's worth noting that while Trump talks about Greenland and potential Chinese influence, his trade war pushed some of our closest allies to grow closer to China and pull away from us. What's it mean for Trump? It looks like the world-renowned economist outmaneuvered him on the economy. Shock.

What's it mean for you as an American? Every time one of our traditional trading partners diversifies away from the US in a formal way. That's a market that is permanently limited. There is no easy way to come back from the damage Trump caused.

Anyway, it's just a thought. You all have a good day.