Fiendish Thingy
Fiendish Thingy's JournalHopium Chronicles: 16 polls have Biden ahead
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hopium-in-the-nytimes-16-polls-show52-48 Marquette (this week)
47-46 Data For Progress (this week)
50-48 NPR/Marist (this week)
42-40 Big Village (this week)
44-42 Morning Consult (this week)
48-45 Quinnipiac
44-43 Noble Predictive
44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)
47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)
46-45 Public Policy Research
50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
45-44 Civiqs
47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
51-49 Emerson
43-42 TIPP
-snip-
In 2022 there were polls showing Republicans with an advantage (many paid for or conducted by GOP aligned organizations), and lots of other polls showing the election close and competitive. Many commentators choose to dismiss the polls more favorable to Dems, and focused on those more favorable to Rs. (Note: that is the likely reason Nate Silver got fired from 538) It is how so many fell for the red wave that that never came.
The responsible thing for commentators and analysts to do now, in 2024, is to point out that not all the data is pointing in the same direction; that there are polls favorable to the Rs (like the new WSJ polls) and there are all these other polls favorable to Biden and the Dems. Another responsible thing to do is to point out that in a week of very good polling for Biden and the Dems the one major poll showing good news for Rs - the low-sample size/high margin of error WSJ polls - was paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trumps own pollster; and thus centering ones understanding about the 2024 election around data they provide is, um, not a reasonable thing to do. This is particularly true given Murdochs Fox News was found guilty in court of maliciously lying about the 2020 election.
My view is the election is becoming bluer, we are gaining ground. Trump is no longer ahead in the election or favored - saying so is outside the data in front of us. It has long been my view, and the view of the Biden campaign, that as we got deeper into the general election and our coalition started paying more attention, Biden would jump out to a modest lead. That appears to be what is happening now.
I also do not subscribe to the school of thought that the battleground leans more Republican than the popular vote. It may happen. But it didnt happen in 2022, and the 2024 battleground knows and has repeatedly rejected MAGA. Post Dobbs MAGA had a disastrous showing in the battleground in 2022, and we just dont know what is going to happen this year. I think Dobbs changed everything, and so comparisons to 2016 or 2020 are in my view very very risky.
(Italics mine)
Now, I havent examined the methodology behind each of these polls, and some may have flaws worth noting. In any case, I never put much stock in any single poll, and neither should you. Its the trend that batches of multiple polls can capture that is often the most revealing and valuable information.
My Eulogy for Lieberman:
https://twitter.com/jeremysaul/status/1773101266274562196?Fuck That Guy.
(Note: The speaker in the clip is John Lovett, the Jewish former Obama staffer who is now a co-host of the Pod Save America podcast)
What can we do about a SCOTUS packed with corrupt extremists?
?1711449391I know which option I would pick.
This issue should be a litmus test for every Dem running for federal office, right along with codifying Roe.
Former polling house staffer: The data says we are winning, even though the media says we aren't
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/10/2228469/-The-data-says-we-are-winning-even-though-the-media-says-we-are-not?utm_campaign=trendingFinally, pollsters are increasingly weighting responses to get the results they want. The Times poll for some reason weighted the voter poll to make it go from a +1% Democratic electorate to a +3% GOP electorate. The electorate in 2020 was +1% Dem and the trend is that the electorate is getting more Democratic and not less. The Times did not explain why they did this but presumably believe that the Trump electorate will increase from past historic levels of turnout (in 2020 and 2016). Its a massive assumption that was made somewhat casually. Unfortunately, this kind of weighting to result seems to be happening more and more as pollsters try to work with models and responses they dont view as ideal or that correspond to the results they want or believe is correct.
In addition, while it has gotten more expensive to do good polling, it has gotten cheaper to do bad polls (via robocalls, email, internet response). Polling has also now become widely accessible (whereas in the past it was a specialized field). You or I could do a very bad poll right now via existing online tools. The margin of error for polls done cheaply (and with small samples) is huge and not predictive. Unfortunately, the prominence of the polling averages a valid way to reduce margin of error when the average was of a lot of high quality polls and the low cost and availability of bad polling has meant that political actors can and are flooding the polling averages with bad polls designed to support their candidate (and the narrative they are pushing to further that support). You just need to create a seemingly credible group name for the pollster and you are in, like this one from Mainstream Research that polled only 250 respondents to make claims about North Carolina. Its absurd.
So, polling, while another point of data, is a much diminished tool and is no longer nearly as predictive of actual electoral outcomes as it was in the past. .
Its a great, informative article, and I highly recommend everyone read the whole thing.
Marcy Wheeler: Fridays w/Nicole Sandler (summary of the news and issues of the week)
Marcy summarizes the weeks news, including the SCOTUS decision to hear Trumps immunity claim (and the new complexities that may have led to that decision), the Cannon hearing, potential timelines for trial schedules, Hunter Biden, and more!
Interesting, informed analysis that you wont hear from the TV lawyers
Email tonight from Katie Porter:
In October, former baseball player Steve Garvey got into the race. Polls initially showed him in third, behind us and Adam Schiff.
Then the Schiff campaign decided to go all in for Steve Garvey. The campaign itself has spent more than $10 million to consolidate conservative support behind Garvey. Their super PAC has spent millions more, with ads from both airing on Fox News constantly.
Garvey has risen in the polls, despite not running a single TV ad of his own or taking any sort of real policy position in our debates. In polls, hes now consistently tied with Katie or slightly ahead.
This cynical play to boost a Republican into the top two may work to further Schiffs own career, but it threatens to box out qualified Democratic women (and leave CA without a woman Senator for the first time in over thirty years).
As reporters have said, If Schiff succeeds in juicing Republican turnout for Garvey, it stands to reason that those Republicans will also vote Republican down the ballot. Garvey himself has no shot of winning, but there may well be closer races in purple House and state legislative districts, school boards, and more that could be swung by a surge in Republican turnout that Schiff is spending millions to stoke.
This is a dangerous play that has national implications. Republicans hold the House majority by just a few seats, and several flippable districts are here in California. If our state has a competitive Democrat on Democrat contest in November, it will encourage Democratic voters to tune in and show up. But a Republican on Democrat race for Senate here in California threatens to depress Democratic turnout, as folks know this is a safe blue seat.
Career politicians shouldnt get to manipulate the electorate and buy themselves a promotion.
New Head of 538: lots of errors in current polls
This is stuff Nate Silver never talked about- questionable methodology and adverse polling conditions.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1759789956321407059?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1759789956321407059%7Ctwgr%5E9b21b959e7eb2f9d8fee767c3cc3373a5f32f158%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1759790646980677815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1759794102843920712%7Ctwgr%5E9b21b959e7eb2f9d8fee767c3cc3373a5f32f158%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1759794102843920712/photo/1
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1759719457562239416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1759720355038425178%7Ctwgr%5E9b21b959e7eb2f9d8fee767c3cc3373a5f32f158%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
Anyway, I find this new perspective and analysis from 538 refreshing- it will be interesting to see how they proceed during this election year, especially if they get a bunch of phony polls close to election day, as was the case in 2022.
Rosenberg: Since Dobbs, Democrats Keep Overperforming, Winning and Republicans Keep Struggling
Go here now, read the whole thing, and subscribe (free):
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/since-dobbs-democrats-keep-overperforming
Rosenberg provides evidence-based optimism to counter the hand-wringing doomerism that is so prevalent these days.
And now this same basic dynamic - overperforming and struggling - is showing up in 2024 now too. We took away a critical state House seat in Florida last month, HD-35, Tom Keen.( Note: Rosenberg was the only one to project Dems would win this seat) We took away NY-3 last night, turning an 8 point loss in 2022 to a 8 point win, and outperformed public polls, as weve been doing repeatedly since Dobbs. Joe Biden had a higher margin of victory in NH than Trump as a write-in candidate, and got more votes than Trump in Nevada. Our party committees and candidates are outraising Republicans across the US, as we did in 2022. And look at them. Turnout in their Iowa Caucus was anemic despite $100m spent and lots of candidate time. Trump only received 56,000 votes of the 750,000 registered Republicans there - big yikes stuff. The heir apparent, DeSantis, flamed out, spectacularly. Trump underperformed public polls in NH by 10-15 points. Polling in these early states showed a very large number of Republicans very worried about Trump and willing to vote for Biden. The RNC is broke, and broken. State Republican Parties in the battlegrounds have atrophied under MAGA extremist leadership. Dozens of prominent Republican Party leaders in the states have been indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election, many more are under investigation. GOP Party Chairs in Arizona and Florida just resigned due to epic scandals. Ugly MAGA candidates are winning primaries again. They tossed their Speaker. The new one is a coward and a traitorous fool. Trumps putting his family in charge of the RNC. We keep overperforming and winning. They keep struggling.
MAGA is a failed politics. It lost in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023, and is losing 2024. And this struggle Republicans have seen could get worse for them in the coming months. Their nominee is far weaker than 2020. He is campaigning from the court house not the White House this time. He is far more degraded, extreme, dangerous. His performance on the stump more unhinged, erratic, distributing. Because of his decline and uncontrolled impulsivity, he is making huge traditional political errors - like coming out against the ACA - that cause candidates to lose elections all the time.
-snip-
I think we are going to win the Presidential election in November. We should flip the House, and if we work really hard we should keep the Senate. The Democratic Party is a force for good in America and the world, Joe Biden is a good President and we are far better off today. We have a very strong case for re-election and the President will be laying out his agenda for his second term in the coming weeks. We keep winning elections of all kinds, all across the country, over many years now. And they are the worst group of political leaders our history. No one has deserved to get their asses kicked more than these cowardly betrayers of everything that has made America great. We should keep winning, and they should keep struggling.
More heart-warming goodness at the link, plus guidance on how to get involved and actually do something to beat the fascists at the ballot box this November.
NYT: He has a charming home, tomato garden, loves chocolate, gooseberry pie & naps
Some things never change at the NYT:
On 9/20/1939, NYT published an article about Hitler's charming home; tomato garden; love of chocolate, gooseberry pie & afternoon naps.This was 9 mos after Kristallnacht, 6 yrs after the Dachau Nazi concentration camp opened, 12 days before he invaded Poland & started WWII. pic.twitter.com/4aJotYivbk 𝔅𝔬 𝔊𝔞𝔯𝔡𝔦𝔫𝔢𝔯 🌎 (@Bo_Gardiner) February 11, 2024
https://twitter.com/Bo_Gardiner/status/1756689463722312016/photo/1
MSNBC: Melber and Maddow on SCOTUS disqualification hearings
?si=bIPGh0cBpgVYtdzfMelber gets to the core issue -
The question SCOTUS is focusing on isnt Is Trump disqualified under the 14th amendment? But rather does one individual state have the authority to disqualify someone from a federal office?.
The implication being, if a single state can disqualify an individual for a federal office under the 14th, which can then be appealed to SCOTUS, that would mean SCOTUS would have to adjudicate an individuals disqualification FIFTY SEPARATE TIMES.
Best case scenario is, SCOTUS overturns the Colorado case, leaving the door open for a suit in federal, rather than state, court to establish Trumps disqualification, nationwide, for federal office under the 14th amendment.
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