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Gender: Female
Hometown: New Jersey
Home country: USA
Member since: 2001
Number of posts: 43,935

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Trump's (AND Biden's) "new voters" ALL came from those who didn't vote at all in 2016

Trump lost because Biden got most of them (which is why I consider the premise of WaPo's analysis to be faulty):

In 2016, 129 million people voted Democrat or Republican.
In 2020, 155 million people voted Democrat or Republican -- an increase of 26 million.
In 2016, Trump got 63 million votes and DIDN'T get 66 million votes.
In 2020, Trump got 74 million votes -- an increase of 11 million votes over 2016.
Add the 15 million votes that Trump DIDN'T get from those who voted Democrat or Republican in 2020 but didn't vote in 2016
to the 66 million votes that Trump DIDN'T get in 2016 -- and you get 81 million votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden got 81 million votes.

PS: Add the 4 million votes Biden got in excess of the 11 million votes Trump got from those who voted Democrat or Republican in 2020 but who DIDN'T vote in 2016
to the three million votes by which Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 -- and you get seven million votes.
Biden's 2020 margin of victory was seven million votes.

Analysis accomplished -- you're welcome.


In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1%

or nearly 2.9 million votes, according to Wikipedia. What has kept me sane since that day was the fact that more people voted against Trump than for him.

Well, once it became clear that Joe had enough of both the popular and electoral college votes, I began quietly fantasizing about Trump losing the popular vote by TWICE as much as he did in 2016, with a side order of Joe getting at least 50% of the popular vote. You say that Biden now has fifty-ONE per cent of the popular vote, as well as surpassed margins of victory of 5.8 million votes AND 4.2 per cent? Woot woot -- trifecta accomplished!


I concur with your diagnosis: It was a perfect storm of sorts

From 2016:

From 2020:

According to USA Today, 65 million 2020 election votes -- FORTY per cent of the nearly 160 million total -- were cast by mail, and in addition, 35 million people voted early/absentee. Compared to nearly 129 million votes cast in 2016, where did those extra 31 million votes come from? That apathetic "green zone!"

With a combination of overall higher turnout (despite the voter suppression attacks); most of Biden's votes being cast early or by mail; and only about just one third of the votes actually being cast on Election Day, maybe there just weren't enough blue in-person machine votes to flip.


I consider four percent to be a "cheatproof" margin of victory

and I would be thrilled if President Duh Don could lose the popular vote by twice as much as he did in 2016. But that seemed like asking for the stars after having reached the moon...

Well, guess what? The stars answered anyway!


Ironically, it was when I read about the site on Nov. 4 that I knew it was all over

Since I saw no reason to expect the election to be settled on election night, I didn't bother with watching the returns. The next morning, I worked without radio or internet, then took a deep breath and logged on for what I did expect: to spend the rest of the week on a stressful emotional roller coaster.

The first thing I read was a message of disappointment from a pro-Trump acquaintance, which ignited a spark of hope. I found my way to an electoral college map page -- it took a second for it to sink in that Joe was leading 243-214. Equally important, the map also indicated that Joe was ahead in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada: winning those three states alone would give him exactly 270 electoral votes!

About three hours later (during which time CNN called Wisconsin for Biden), I came across a story about Joe's transition team Web page. That's when I knew it was over -- that's when I knew that Joe knew he had those three states in the bag. He would never have deployed the page if there was even an outside chance that he'd have to retract it. Ironically, it's precisely the sort of thing that Trump would do...and blame on Biden if it backfired!


I'm "betting" on Nevada to give Biden the win

I beg to differ, Nate: there are 254 reasons for Nevada to take its sweet time about giving Biden the win -- and for saving the counting of the county that virtually guarantees him the most blue votes until last.

Biden's 253 electoral votes, plus Arizona's 11 votes and Nevada's six, gets him to 270. And the remaining reason is how pleasurable it will be to watch Trump have to suck it up even if he were to win all of the other contests!


As of now, there are three states unaccounted for: GA, NC, and PA

Including WI, Biden has a total of 253 accounted-for electoral votes, and with NV (6 votes) and AZ (11) in the bag, he's already got the 270 he needs. Including AK, Trump has a total of 217 accounted-for electoral votes: winning all three of the unaccounted-for states (16 plus 15 plus 20 votes respectively) would give him a grand total of only 268.


This is already outdated -- the chaos is over.

Biden needs 17 electoral votes to hit 270 -- and thanks to Nevada and Arizona, he's already got them. Via either collusion or Biden's request, they're simply waiting on orders to drop the other shoe.

Why do you think Biden posted a transition team Web page yesterday? To do so without knowing his win was definite is definitely something Trump would do -- and blame on Biden!


"Court house in Louisville is being boarded up right now..."

I've been speculating the same thing: Technically, the cops didn't do anything criminal.

They were going after someone who they were TOLD was a suspect, and they had a legal right not to knock on the door. But that means that Taylor's boyfriend didn't act illegally, either -- he had a right to defend themselves from what he believed were home invaders.

The people responsible for the information and communication breakdowns that led to the cops being misinformed are the real culprits.

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