Food will get scarce. Depression and inflation are coming.

[lostnfound]

I’ve been right about a lot of stuff with this pandemic. Told my boss back in January we needed to start planning work-from-home strategies for everything. Needed to consider supplier shutdowns. Needed to recognize revenues would be dropping.

Every few weeks he says “all the executives are talking” about this or that now.

And then the shoes keep dropping.

So a few weeks ago I realized that food growers, pickers, packers, processors can’t isolate. And they are treated badly. So the illness will spread, and they won’t find enough workers. Add on to that the climate change induced crop problems, and the shortage of immigrant labor, and there’s plenty of opportunities for food prices to clim and eventually turn into serious shortages.

Enter black markets. I think Trump is doing a black market with masks and medical equipment right now. I think he wants to destroy city centers to open up real estate opportunities for his russian owners, or himself, or both. I think he will create black markets, loot the treasury, self-deal, and kill off many people without batting an eye.

After greed and ego, revenge is his middle name. When food is scarce, the coastal cities will starve. Sonny Perdue announced something new prop up “the farmers” bill which is really going to turn out to be selected trump supporters.

Don’t think that any of this is unthinkable. A corrupt man with unchecked power will stop at nothing. I am writing a kind of history book right now, and it includes serious famine and massive looting and black markets in what had been an advanced country. What I see is more of the same coming to us.

[gibraltar72]

1. Trumpcession.

[roamer65]

56. +100000

[roamer65]

2. California won't starve, that's for sure.

A lot of food is produced there and they have enough economic power to import what they need.

[stopbush]

4. 25% of US produce is grown here in CA.

And, lots of food imports come thru our ports.

At some point the state may want to start instituting “CA first” policies when it comes to who gets food.

[roamer65]

5. I would like to see us in MI adopt the Canadian dollar as legal tender.

That would start the process of entry into the Canadian confederation.

[Celerity]

8. good luck selling that

[roamer65]

16. Better than a worthless US dollar.

If there is hyperinflation that exchange rate will change.

I would like to see dual legal tender system.

[Celerity]

21. Hyperinflation is not coming, the USD is the world's reserve currency, plus the main exchange

currency for petrol.

Gold bugs, for instance, have been ranting about hyperinflation since the 2007-2009 crisis, and will be raving still in 2030, 2032.

[roamer65]

24. Not for much longer.

Just wait until unlimited QE really kicks in.

Gold is already up quite a bit since the announcement.

[Celerity]

29. So you are saying that the USD will no longer be the global reserve currency?

I will SO take that wager.

Hyperinflation is simply not going to occur with the USD unless we are into a situation where there is a real threat for the partial dissolution of the union.

[Disaffected]

23. The exchange rate

really doesn't matter that much - it is simply taken into account when pricing goods. IOWs, the "exchange" rate between a one dollar bill and a five dollar is five to one. You can still pay for a five dollar item with one five or five ones.

[Celerity]

25. I have massive doubts that a dual legal tender system is going to be set up in Michigan or elsewhere

[roamer65]

26. It already defacto exists in Canada.

You can pay in Canadian or American dollars.

[Disaffected]

30. Not really.

It's very problematical (at other than a financial institution) when the exchange rate fluctuates as it does. Most businesses would simply direct you to a bank or ATM.

[roamer65]

32. I pay that way all the time in Windsor, Ontario.

They take Canadian or American dollars just about everywhere, including the Beer Store.

[Disaffected]

34. OK,

in "border" cities I guess it might be more common. And, there have been instances in American towns, mostly in the north, who take Canadian dollars at par for a while to attract Canadian customers.

The US dollar is not BTW "legal tender" in Canada though i.e. a business cannot be compelled to accept US notes (it is at the discretion of the business).

[Celerity]

31. The Canadian dollar is not legal tender in the US, nor can I see it becoming so unless there

is a dissolution of the union coming that entails multiple US states actually joining Canada. We are nowhere near that scenario yet. A Trump reelection makes it more likely down the road (for systemic reasons I have laid out in the past), but nowhere near an imminent thing.

[Disaffected]

27. Agreed

The chances are m/l zero.

[getagrip_already]

9. fema will seize it and send it to red states...... n/t

[Grasswire2]

14. not when there's a Democrat in the WH.

[getagrip_already]

40. I'm trying not to dream happy thoughts...... ;)

I've got to stay angry to get through this crap.

[NickB79]

12. Unless you have another bad drought year

Most of that food CA grows is dependent on irrigation. Also dependent on migrant labor, which is also in short supply.

Long-term, CA won't be able to support it's farms as climate change fuels another mega-drought.

[not fooled]

47. Transcontinental water pipelines

They're inevitable, although not under Dark-Ages Donnie and his red state minions.

[NickB79]

51. The energy required to pump water over the Rockies is impossible

This has actually been calculated. A pipeline the same size as the Alaskan oil pipeline would require the energy equivalent of 50 nuclear reactors to operate. And that amount of water is not even close to satisfying demand.

Besides, me and about a million other Great Lakes Midwesterners would be lining up with our deer rifles to shoot holes in that son of a bitch for stealing our water.

[tritsofme]

66. No one is touching the Great Lakes.

Full stop. You all can move East, but we’re not sending our water West.

[Blue_true]

39. Exactly. The key is economic power. Those places that have it will get all they need.

The starving will happen for places that don't have overall financial clout.

[dixiegrrrrl]

64. Import from where?

I just read about a 8.2 $ billion global industry that has been killed off by the virus, because it counts on products that are grown mostly in Kenya, with cheap labor, and reliant on a chain of workers on 3 continents, all decimated by the virus.

there have been warnings about the 3,000 mile salad before, now this virus is showing how utterly dependent everyone is on global trade.

[badhair77]

3. The black market with masks and medical equipment could be a possibility.

He tends to accuse others of the exact same thing he is doing.

[MarcA]

7. Projecting/falsely accusing others. Same for his followers, supporters and handlers. n/t

[jimlup]

6. We have not begun to consider the finanical ramifications of this crises nor is it applicable.

nevertheless, the market is dead wrong. Just say'n

[Grasswire2]

15. I agree that the market is wrong.

And I can't say that I will be sad if the fat cats take a beating.

I do feel bad for any worker whose pension funds are compromised.

[jimlup]

19. Yes

my thoughts exactly.

[Grasswire2]

35. I have been remembering watching how the Walton family lived in the 30s (on TV)

multi-generations, thrift ---- lessons we will likely learn, too

[jimlup]

44. yes

that is true. This will test out basic sustainability plans/

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. Inflation never happens w depressions. Deflation does. In depression cash is king & assets cheap.nt

[lostnfound]

11. Except for food, right? Everyone needs food, and there won't be enough.

Also the cost of goods being imported from China is rising. The value of the dollar will be worth less relative to foreign currency.

[roamer65]

17. Hyperinflationary depressions do happen.

Zimbabwe. I used to be a trillionaire in Zimbabwe.

Venezuela as well.

Watch gold. As the main reserve currency, we devalue against gold. Other currencies will devalue against us until it gets too painful. Then we will see them replace the dollar as their reserve currency. Then all inflationary hell will break loose here in the US.

[Celerity]

22. gold and silver prices

[roamer65]

28. I predict $2000 by years end.

In fact it is near it right now. Physical gold 1oz American Eagles are around $1800. Physical gold and silver are selling for sizable premiums over the paper contract price.

[Celerity]

33. I can absolutely see 2000 USD per ounce prices. nt

[roamer65]

36. I definitely hope so.

[Blue_true]

41. It also happened in post WWI Germany, the main reason why Hitler rose to power. nt

[roamer65]

55. Thank you!

Bingo!

[First Speaker]

59. No. It was the Depression that brought Hitler to power, *not* the inflation...

...the inflation was deliberately engineered by the Weimar government as a response to the French occupation of the Ruhr. When the crisis eased, so did the inflation, very rapidly. Hitler then attempted his Beer Hall Putsch, which was a fiasco. For years afterwards, he was a political joke, and only the Depression brought him and the Nazi movement back to life.

[roamer65]

60. Hitler used the resentment to the Treaty of Versailles to gain power.

One of his first acts was to end reparations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zsrwjxs/revision/4

[Blue_true]

63. Correct.

Hitler used the brutal conditions that the allies subjected Germans to enhance his standing. One thing that he told Germans was that they would never be treated like dogs again (even though they weren't treated like that).

The hyper-inflation that the average German went through left a bitter taste in their mouths. The average German grew to resent the welloff and merchant class, and intelligentsia many of whom were Jewish. The average German was suffering, having to take a pile of money to buy routine food items, then the Great Depression hit them. Hitler used all that pent and mis-directed rage to his advantage.

Hitler actually started his ultimate rise to power in the mid 1920s, after serving about two years in prison. During the late 1920s, the Nazis rose to become one of the largest parties in the Riechstag, rising to the largest in the early 1930s, using anti-Semitism and resentment of the harsh conditions of the treaty of Versailes to fuel it's rise. Hitler became Chancellor in 1933 and enacted a law that basically gave him dictator powers.

Donald Trump seems to be using Hitler's playbook, using open appeal to racism and xenophobia, along with economic resentment, and appeal to his masses to use violence as a tool to get their way. If he is not stopped, Trump will try the ultimate Hitler move, gain dictatorial powers, he is desperately trying that now.

[roamer65]

67. I believe that Ivana Trump said COVID-45 had a copy of My New Order readily available.

It is a compilation of Hitler’s speeches.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

49. Somehow I find it hard to consider Zimbabwe or Venezuela

as models for what could happen here.

[roamer65]

50. How did Venezuela get where it is now?

A collapse in the oil market. Sound familiar?

Venezuela was dependent on $100 a barrel oil.

I think they are on the second rendition of the bolivar now.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

53. How much of their economy was dependent on oil?

How much is ours? I'm guessing, without bothering to Google anything, that they were vastly more dependent on oil income than we are.

[roamer65]

54. Ours is a lot more dependent than it used to be.

We produced more oil than Saudi Arabia before this crisis. Right around 18M barrels/day.

[TexasBushwhacker]

65. Yes, but our economy is far more diverse

Saudi Arabia has oil and sand. We increased oil production after the oil embargo in the 70's so that we would never be in that situation again, with people waiting in line for hours to get gas.

[MLAA]

13. I don't think you are far off. In fact you might be a bit optimistic.

[Demsrule86]

18. Depression causes deflation. farmers who are destroying crops and not sending them to food

Farmers should not get anything in terms of stimulus until they stop it. That occurred in the 30's too.

[jmg257]

37. Not surprised...been preparing for it somewhat. Nt

[Blue_true]

38. BS.

The coastal cities, all of which tend to be wealthier will simply import what they need. The suffering will be in the interior, landlocked cities and town that depend on items that must go through ports, which will eventually include food. Also, American farmers will send products to the highest bidder, which will be coastal cities and rich cities and surburbs.

[femmedem]

42. I live in a coastal city in Connecticut with a poverty rate of 28%.

Plenty of cities, including coastal cities, have high poverty rates, the enduring legacy of subsidized housing and racist restrictive covenants in the suburbs, and redlining in the cities.

[Blue_true]

43. There are exceptions, but coastal cities are wealthier.

If you look at the list if the nation's wealthiest cities, except in Texas and Oklahoma (oil), you will be hard pressed to find an interior city.

[Eko]

45. I agree.

The only way our food supplies will get processed will be if the national guard steps up. See here also. https://democraticunderground.com/100213306063

[ALBliberal]

46. Witnessing recently some bizarre behavior. Off the rails

Road rage (even parking lot rage at my daughters apartment lot).

Let’s pray good and love will win.

[Mr.Bill]

48. If unemployment hits 20%

there will be no shortage of inexpensive labor to harvest or process food.

[NRaleighLiberal]

52. the last 3.5 years show us all that anything is possible, that's for sure.

We are sinking into the depths, real time, right in front of us. The media continues to think it is just revenue - producing entertainment.

We are in deep shit.

[Joinfortmill]

57. At the least it's going to get worse.

And do not doubt that Trump is a monster.

[thenelm1]

58. And to think that some of the complete fools on other sites...

like HP, think that as long as they're "owning" the libs" things are going great"!!

Jeebus, how much of a complete maroon do you still have to be to think Dump is the greatest thing ever.

It boggles the mind. "I have no responsibility at all", but every state has to do what I say.

And now pushing 2nd Amendment solutions to protest lock down orders?

Completely incomprehensible and irrational to anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together.

Was it always this bad? If so, how did this country ever survive for 250 or so years?

[meadowlander]

61. 40% of the food we grow in "normal" times ends up in landfills.

We have some runway.

People might not have the same choice that they normally have and the prices on some hard to get items may go up, but people are not going to starve.

Look at all the restaurant and institutional food that it being destroyed because they can't work out how to repackage it for domestic buyers. If there was an actual shortage of food, and an opportunity to make a profit, those logistical problems would get worked out quick smart instead of the food being destroyed.

I read some grocery stores in the weeks before the shut down were selling enough food for the average customer to survive for eight months on. Lots of people have massive personal stockpiles as well.

And lots of types of food can still be harvested and processed using social distancing measures. You just space workers further apart.

Depression, yes. Starvation, unlikely.

[lostnfound]

62. Thank you. That's reassuring and good logic.nt

[lostnfound]

68. Update on food supply

I’m afraid that the actions of the Trump administration is close to sabotage. Are farmers who lose so much on their spring crops going to go under and decide they can’t afford to plant again?

“Farmers in Florida, which provides much of the fresh produce to the eastern half of the U.S. during the winter and spring, left about 75 percent of the lettuce crop unharvested, along with significant portions of the state’s sweet corn, cabbage and squash. Up to 250 million pounds of tomatoes could end up left in the fields, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services. Florida officials estimate produce growers there have taken a half a billion dollar hit. In California, the industry is projected to lose more than $1 billion per month.”
https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/04/26/usda-let-millions-of-pounds-of-food-rot-while-food-bank-demand-soared-1279616