CBS News/YouGov poll: many voters are clueless

[TwilightZone]

I debated whether or not to post this. I decided to do so to provide a glimpse into how well the propaganda on the right works on voters and in part because I think we tend to underestimate Trump and his appeal (for lack of a better word). There's plenty of time to shift the narrative before November, but I think there's little argument that we'll need to do so.

Setting aside the war-of-the-polls, it's just one set of data and a snapshot of the present. That being said, some of the results are pretty perplexing. Some can be explained by partisanship. Some can't.

Choice for president, likely voters
48/52 Biden/Trump (MOE is 3.5%)

How would you rate their presidencies.
Excellent/Good
Trump, looking back: 46%
Biden, so far: 33%

How was the economy under Trump
Good
Trump, looking back: 65%
Current economy: 38%

Has a vision for the country
Biden: 50%
Trump: 63% (In fairness, I suppose that "authoritarian hellhole" is technically a vision)

After 2020 Election, Trump planned to:
44% Stay in office by illegal means
35% Stay in office by legal means
21% Did not plan to stay in office

12% of those who think Trump tried to stay in office by illegal means support him anyway.

Democracy and Rule of Law will be safe
34% Only if Biden wins
33% Only if Trump wins
13% If Either wins
20% Won't be safe either way.

Side note: er, what??

Trump and Roe V Wade: Do you give him:
19% Credit
33% Blame
48% Neither

Mental & Cognitive Health to Serve as President
26% Only Biden
43% Only Trump
6% Both of them
25% Neither of them

Physical health to serve as president
17% Only Biden
45% Only Trump
9% Both of them
29% Neither of them

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy/

[Johonny]

1. Polling may be useless as Trump is a cult

He could set them on fire and they'd look back favorably on his presidency.

[TwilightZone]

3. This looks like more than just the cult.

How can 63% think that he has a vision for the country? That includes a not-insignificant chunk of the voters supporting Biden, roughly a third of them.

As I sarcastically joked, I suppose Trump's apocalyptic vision of the country still technically qualifies as a vision, so maybe that one-third is just as sarcastic and cynical as I am.

[mvd]

2. I see these polls and just

If voters are as stupid as the poll says, there is no saving this country.

[Dave says]

10. That's pretty much where things stand - it's going to be monumentally hard to reverse these trends

[JCMach1]

46. I agree. If that is actual voters we are DONE

[Chainfire]

4. The election odds are about the same as I saw on an on-line gambling site.

If we don't elect Biden, Americans will sure as hell get the government we deserve. Whether we can survive it is another matter.

Trump is determined to go all Old Testament on his enemies, and his enemies are anyone who doesn't kiss his nasty ass on any given day.

[Blaukraut]

5. If these polls are accurate, we are doomed

Anybody who can look back and objectively say that Trump's presidency was more successful than Biden's, was not paying attention or has selective amnesia.

[Dave says]

12. Or has swallowed the propaganda hook, line, and sinker

[All Mixed Up]

21. Most Americans are completely disconnected from current events.

They look at things through their own personal lens.

Under Trump, gas was cheaper.

Under Trump, housing and rent were cheaper.

Under Trump, food was cheaper.

They don't care that Trump inherited a strong economy and coasted until COVID undid all that.

All they know is that under Biden, inflation surged, gas prices surged and cost of living surged.

So they equate that to things being better under Trump - therefore Trump's presidency was better.

The reality is that even with these bad of numbers, Biden is trailing by like four-points in this poll, which is within the MOE, or close to it.

I liken these numbers to a team entering the half up four despite shooting 75% from the field and their opponent shooting 35%. They can still win but if things even out a bit, they're about to get crushed.

[TwilightZone]

34. "within the MOE"

Yeah, that's what I took away from the poll, too. A lot of problematic results, and yet it's a statistical tie at the top.

As you said in other responses, it may not take much - not as much as many, myself included, might expect - to make significant gains.

[Takket]

6. i know it look bad but.......

honestly, the campaign hasn't even started yet.

Biden's people need to make sure he is speaking publicly and making headlines EVERY DAY. The more he speaks, the more active he is, the more this "he's senile and drooling in the corner" perception will fade away, at least enough to ensure he wins.

[TwilightZone]

7. Agreed.

I don't think he necessarily needs to be speaking publicly every day at the current time, but a routine and consistent presence would help dispel the myth while the campaign ramps up to full speed once the primaries are resolved. The trick is ensuring that he gets coverage.

I think the SOTU will also help, though I don't know how many "average" voters still tune in.

[DemocratInPa]

8. I have said this before and will again..

As unpopular as it is, emotionally, I am preparing myself for a Trump second term.

[TwilightZone]

9. Being prepared isn't unreasonable.

His level of support is inexplicably stable, but he also doesn't seem to be gaining much support. Much will depend on turnout, as it always does, especially in swing states, which are a little different this time around. Turnout at similar levels to 2020 or better will undoubtedly help us.

[shrike3]

18. As am I.

[betsuni]

11. Really embarrassing. Democrats are blamed: why aren't they saying all the right magic word-messages

that will instantly change hearts and minds and earn votes? It is so easy.

[TwilightZone]

13. Agree completely.

[WarGamer]

14. Red jerseys, Blue Jerseys...

I don't think anyone is analyzing policy positions and legislation.

It's your team or it's the enemy...

That's where we're at in 2024.

Eventually... we'll see another Obama-like leader who will unite a good 60, 70% of the US... (69% approval in 2009)

[TwilightZone]

15. He didn't stay there long.

"That's where we're at in 2024."

For the most part, we've been there since mid-2009.

Partisanship reared its ugly head shortly after that 2009 peak. 41% of Republicans approved in that first poll (January 2009). By August, he was in the teens and rarely broke 20% after that.

He spent a lot of time in the 40s in overall rating and ended with around 49% average. Other than that first honeymoon period, it was partisan split, all the way.

[WarGamer]

16. but 332 electoral votes in 2012... 26 States and DC

[TwilightZone]

17. It doesn't take 70% approval to do that.

Obama's approval ratings were in the low 50s in October/November 2012. His approval among Republicans was in single digits.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[WarGamer]

19. Been a long time since a POTUS has had 50%+ approval...

I just like the guy... the first POTUS of my generation and looked and spoke like someone I'd chat with at the water cooler.

He'll always be MY best POTUS ever.

I slept great those 8 years knowing a firm hand was on the tiller.

AND he was loved, globally... those years I was still traveling a lot... and he was nearly universally popular.

[TwilightZone]

20. Biden, August 2021

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Gallup says July, but it's a monthly average. Some individual polls had him in the 50s in August.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx

[All Mixed Up]

22. If Biden's approval improves by five-points between now and election day, he wins every state he won in 2020 + NC.

[TwilightZone]

23. I think that might be a little low.

He's at 38.5% average per 538. He started his presidency in the mid 50s, and the race was very close in some of the swing states. I've feel a lot better if he was in the upper 40s or low 50s.

I have no idea why he's not there now, though it's early and low-information and disinterested voters seem to be part of the problem. Right-wing propaganda also clearly works, and I'm not sure how best to combat that.

https://democraticunderground.com/100218740568

[All Mixed Up]

24. I would agree if this opponent wasn't Trump.

But the fact it's Trump likely means he can get away with a mid-40s approval rating and win decently-ish.

FWIW, RCP has his approval average at 40.5, so that would put him at 45.5% approval on election day if he sees a five-point bump. I think that would be substantial.

[TwilightZone]

25. Also depends on how RFK Jr does.

And where he draws support from. There really isn't much of a consensus yet and his polls are all over the place.

Third parties almost always start strong, then fade. Johnson was in double digits early in the 2016 campaign and ended up with 3.3%. I'm hoping that RFK Jr follows a similar path.

[All Mixed Up]

26. Even on election day, Johnson did 1.4 points worse than he was polling.

That doesn't sound substantial but it kinda is when you realize he was polling at 4.7%. That's a bit less than half his polling support on election day.

Meanwhile, Hillary saw an increase of 2.5 points compared to her final average of polls.

The devastating change came from Trump. He saw a near-four-point increase.

Stein also saw a drop in support. She went from an average of 1.9 to 1.1 in the final vote total. Again, it looks small but that's essentially losing half her overall support from the average of polls. That's a lot.

A big reason third party candidates do so poorly is that they don't have near the money for GOTV efforts, especially in swing states where the party plays a vital role in pinpointing areas they need to get the vote out and how to track who is and isn't voting so you can get 'em to the polls if needed. Couple that with the fact third party voters in general are way more fickle than party-line voters and you run into situations where they don't vote or decide last minute to vote for one of the two major candidates. RFK will not have that level of organization.

[TwilightZone]

29. Third parties are also the shiny new thing early in the cycle.

That's particularly true when a lot of voters are averse to the impending match-up, as many are with Trump and Biden. They start out looking at the shiny new thing, then realize the shiny new thing isn't going to solve their problems and/or is a bit off their rocker.

That being said, your point about organization is obviously true, though RFK Jr is getting a significant amount of outside help, so much so that his methods (having a Super PAC help get him on ballots, for one) are being questioned. It'll be interesting to see how long big donors hang around.

[womanofthehills]

32. Not looking that way - last 3 NC polls

Trump up 9 in all 3.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/north-carolina

[TwilightZone]

37. You're looking at the wrong column in your link.

"Other" is at 9% in the three most-recent.

Recent poll average has Trump up 5. He's up 9, 3, and 3, in the three most-recent polls.

[All Mixed Up]

39. I don't think you're reading those polls right.

You're looking at 'other' - only one poll has him up nine.

Emerson has Trump up 3.
East Carolina Univ. has Trump up 3.
Fox News has Trump up 5.
Meredith College has Trump up 5.

[Polybius]

28. So who was the most popular President of the past 50 years?

As far as average approval rated from start to finish. Sorta total-time approval rating.

[TwilightZone]

31. George H W Bush

Then Clinton, then Reagan.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx

[Polybius]

36. Wow, and he still lost in 1992

I knew that Poppy Bush saw a 89% approval rating during the war, but I thought it ended too quickly to average very high. I do recall that his approval ratings reached abysmal levels. Odd, since he wasn't as divisive as Jr. or Trump. Don't like the guy, but high 20's? Come on, he didn't deserve that when Trump's lowest was 34% (right after January 6th).

I'm also surprised that Reagan is in third place, since he hold the record (at least modern record) of back-to-back total Electoral Votes: 489 in 1980, 525 in 1984. That's a staggering 1,014 EV's.

Finally, I'd like to see this updated, to see where Biden has averaged so far.

[TwilightZone]

38. Bush was in the 30s at the time of the election.

His approval on the economy was in the teens. He was doomed.

What's really interesting is that his overall approval immediately improved after he lost. Final poll had him at 54%. We like you now that you're gone! haha

I always used to joke that Reagan was a much better actor as president than he was as an actor. He certainly sold (and sold out) the masses.

[All Mixed Up]

40. Bush had survivable approval up until 1992.

Literally - it's like once we entered 1992, his approval tanked.

The final Gallup poll of 1991, done 12/12/91, had Bush's approval at 50% and disapproval at 41%.

Their first poll of 1992, done 1/3/92, Bush's approval was at 46% and his disapproval 47%.

The big differences between that era and this comes down to disapproval.

Even Obama never saw the disapproval numbers Biden or Trump has seen.

Obama was routinely under water but he'd be like 45% approval 47 disapproval or something like that.

Now, Biden might be at 43% approval in one poll and 55% disapproval. You look at it and think, "ah, he's only two-points off Obama's approval ... that ain't bad..."

But then you see Obama was -2 approval/disapproval and Biden is -12 or something crazy.

[MFM008]

27. Look

2 years ago all the polls said there was a 'red tsunami' coming. Republicans sweeping everything. I just don't think we can put anything into these polls with this crazy as things are today.

[TwilightZone]

33. The polls weren't all wrong. The partisan polls were wrong, and media interpretations were wrong.

When the polling averages narrowed in the fall, it was partially because partisan polls commissioned by Republican organizations were bringing them down for Democrats. Rosenberg was one of the first to identify the phenomenon, which he described as an “unprecedented campaign by Republicans to flood the polling averages in the final month to create this impression of the red wave.”

If you were looking at polling averages that included Republican polls, “you were looking at a completely different election than we were looking at,” he added.

When Rosenberg stripped out the partisan polling, he foresaw an election in which New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania were leaning Democrat, Nevada was too close to call, and Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin were leaning a little Republican. That’s consistent with what actually transpired.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats

[lees1975]

42. Ah, another "after the fact" polling apologist.

Wrong like crazy in the weeks before an election and then, presto! Afterward, well we got it closer than you think we did.

Like they're getting it in the primaries now. How do you account for all of those Republican voters not showing up for Trump like the polls are saying they will and then, telling exit pollers they're not voting for him in the general election?

Polls are for one thing. To create sensations that generate higher ratings. The New York Times is losing money and has sagging ratings so they are the ones to create excitement by publishing polling data from skewed samples.

Here's something to think about. Biden is ahead 55-42, wins over 400 electoral votes and has a Democratic house and senate. Betcha!

[TwilightZone]

43. They were wrong because partisan polls flooded the market.

This was a known issue at the time. It got tons of coverage on DU.

You could have actually read the article, but hey, why bother? Your predetermined conclusions might take a hit, and we can't have that.

When Rosenberg stripped out the partisan polling, he foresaw an election in which New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania were leaning Democrat, Nevada was too close to call, and Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin were leaning a little Republican. That’s consistent with what actually transpired.

Take out the partisan poll flood, and polling was consistent with the results.

[lees1975]

30. YouGov explains a lot.

Their disclaimer is that they aren't conducting a genuinely random survey.

But a late February poll from the same source gives Trump a 61% disapproval rating. Biden gets 55% in the same poll.

[SoFlaBro]

35. Wonder how long it will take to get someone credible to debunk this dogshit poll? The shit never stops.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

41. A question that should be on every poll: Where do you get your information?

If the electorate has a failing grade for awareness of issues, it is a failing grade for the press.

[TwilightZone]

44. That would be helpful information.

Obviously, we have our suspicions but it would be nice to see real numbers and compare them to the poll results.

[muriel_volestrangler]

45. Yet another poll that doesn't ask about Trump raping a woman, or his moral fitness

I hope that DUers, whenever Trump is mentioned by anyone, bring up that he's a rapist, and thus unfit to be president. Anyone who has the slightest chance of voting for him must always be reminded it would make them pro-rape.