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mzmolly

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Gender: Do not display
Current location: Minnesota
Member since: Sun Oct 19, 2003, 11:29 PM
Number of posts: 48,693

About Me

Yada yada yada.

Journal Archives

Minnesota Seemed Ripe for a Trump Breakout. It Has Not Arrived. NYT

DULUTH, Minn. — For a campaign event featuring Donald Trump Jr., the brash-talking, liberal-dunking namesake of the president, it was all rather mundane.

There was no large rally with thronging crowds, but a few hundred seats at a community center, each socially distanced. The signature Trump campaign playlist, usually blared at a volume that makes conversation impossible, was replaced by a selection of library-level soft rock.

“I like the crowds a little bit more packed and a little tighter, but we have to play by different rules, and that’s OK,” he told supporters.

It was not supposed to be this way. If any state is positioned to go from blue to red in 2020, to embrace the fullness of Trumpology and provide the president some much-needed Electoral College insurance, it is Minnesota.



Donald Trump Jr. drew a relatively sedate crowd to a recent campaign event in Duluth, Minn.

More at: NY TIMES

The Lincoln Project - HE IS CRAZY

https://twitter.com/i/status/1301291273089724416

It's about time someone stated the obvious!

Trump is mentally unwell. Dark forces controlling Biden?

Dems need to call out his obvious mental health issues.

He's clearly unfit, in more ways than one.

PLAN YOUR VOTE - Excellent information from NBC

NBCNEWS.COM/PLANYOURVOTE


An AXIOS guest on Joy Reid tonight talked about the RED MIRAGE some of us have discussed here. Joy Reid also covered the possibility that Republican officials in various states, may try to stop the mail in vote count and declare Trump the winner BEFORE all mail in votes are counted. Thus far, officials that were contacted by NBC, with directly related questions, have failed to respond.

I know I'm beating this drum over and over again. But it's best to be proactive, rather than reactive. And, If Joy Reid agrees, I can't be too crazy.

Biden supporters need to plan our votes and be sure they're counted on or before election day.








Trump has slipped among key groups that backed him in 2016

Source: Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president’s reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation’s cities.
Trump’s decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds.

The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest.

During the Democratic convention, Biden gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 2 points; Trump then regained some of that ground during his convention, a week-by-week comparison of the poll’s tracking shows.

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016

Opinion - Why Trump is unlikely to pull off an election surprise against Biden ... Market Watch

Can President Donald Trump do it again? Will he be able to convince enough undecided or uncommitted voters to give him another four years in office?

At the moment the short answer is “No”.

Looking just at the 2020 polls, an election observer could be forgiven for thinking that former Vice President Joe Biden has an easy path to unseating Trump. Yet few prognosticators are proclaiming an impending Biden victory. Perhaps this is because, despite a similar deficit in the summer of 2016, then-candidate Trump surprised everyone with an election night victory over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

A big part of that 2016 story is late-deciding voters decisively breaking towards Trump, potentially handing him victory and several swing states. One post-election analysis (APPOR 2016 Post-Election Report) found that Trump gained an average of 1% nationally and 3% in four swing states due to outperforming Clinton among the roughly one-in-eight voters making their decision in the week before Election Day.


...

This year, undecided voters are more likely to be female, less likely to have a college degree, more likely to be younger, and are more likely to be a person of color.


More at: MARKET WATCH

Interesting analysis.

Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight

... Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud.)

According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)

If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.


More at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

I'm voting early and in person - I want to see my vote counted.

Adding what DrunkenIrishman pointed out below: "... most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted."

Good information! Regardless, vote early and be sure your vote is counted.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

The supposed reason for Trump holding his convention at the White House

was because of the pandemic. Yet the idiot has a rally with no mask requirements.



I texted 'VOTE' to Trumps 88022

and ultimately they have an option to request an absentee ballot. Same damn thing as vote by mail.

I stopped correspondence once I saw where it led. Basically, they stole another idea from the DNC Convention.

RNC Convention - The Musical



Courtesy of South Park.
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