Tom Rinaldo
Tom Rinaldo's JournalThere are no States in "good shape" in regards to Covid-19.
All are much worse off now than the United States was as a whole three months ago, back when we could still count all known cases in the nation on one's fingers and toes. Once upon a time, roughly six months ago, there was just one case of Covid-19 on the entire planet.
Open a container of sour cream and stick it in the fridge. Check it every day, and each day it will still look fine. That is until it isn't. If you time it perfectly you might witness the turning point; some small spot of grayish green fuzz floating on the top. It might not seem to grow much more over several days, but then it will rapidly go to hell. It's called geometric progression, or exponential growth. Unless something radical is done to alter that curve, it's course is set in stone.
I feel horrible about all the souls who will be lost as Trump and a handful of Republican Governors fly into the face of that stark reality.
Any Biden shift toward the Left now should not be viewed through the prior primary prism
TRANSPARENCY DISCLAIMER: I changed the original OP subject line Tuesday at 8:17 AM EST from its original version, which was: "Joe Biden doesn't need to move to the Left to mollify Sanders voters." I did so because after this OP was originally posted Bernie Sanders endorsed Joe Biden for President, which somewhat changed the context I was referencing in the original subject line.
Joe Biden needs to move to the Left to confront the cascading urgent needs of our nation. This isn't about Democratic politics anymore. Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and all rational Sanders supporters (which means the vast majority of Sanders supporters) will vote for Biden over Trump. No, this is about what it will take for President Biden to counter the gravest domestic threat that America has faced since the Great Depression
The disruption that this nation has just begun to face is unprecedented in scope to anything that any incoming American President has faced since FDR was sworn into office. Barack Obama faced a huge challenge when he first took office. This one will dwarf that. Reports are starting to filter out that the Covid-19 does not behave like a conventional flu virus. Warm weather does not seem to appreciatively slow its spread. If true that means we won't receive a summer respite from this pandemic, instead we may face rolling waves of disease peaks and troughs as we alternately loosen and tighten social restrictions. Over the long term, even before the widespread introduction of an effective vaccine, the severity of the outbreaks might be tempered somewhat by growing "herd immunity" if nothing else, as more of us are exposed to and recover from Covid-19 hopefully with some degree of immunity to it built up. But that is a particularly grim version of something to look forward to. Meanwhile our social, medical and economic systems are already breaking under the strain.
The Achilles heel of our employer based health insurance system has been exposed, namely it having been based on secure employment. Those who can still afford to purchase private insurance today will be facing far more expensive premiums next year after private insurers re calibrate their costs from Covid-19 and adjust accordingly. Meanwhile our for profit health care provision system has been severely tested and cracks are emerging and widening daily. What does it say when private hospitals risk closure because they are losing money from an overflow of the wrong kind of patients? What does it say when hospitals are forced to reduce their payrolls during a pandemic? What does it say when only those living in certain states can qualify for Medicaid after they lose their private insurance, and that those states will soon have to drastically slash government spending in areas like education and public safety in order to redress massive budget short falls from increased medical costs AND reduced tax revenues?
What have we learned about the essential services that working class Americans provide our nation, often earning marginal incomes while facing the higher risks of life threatening virus exposure as they venture out of home each day to do the work that all of us who can shelter at home depend on? Even with their sacrifices, and they are indeed sacrifices, will the supply chains of food and other essential goods remain intact over the coming months as inventories are drawn down and illness stalks our workplaces? Who will stamp out profiteering on indispensable items, under what authority?
When the least among us can spread disease to the so called greatest among us through invisible chains of contact, the privileged can only buy limited protection and absolutely no guarantees. But who will drive that reality home to those who occupy the upper strata or our social pyramid by using the force of law? Without a massive redistribution of wealth in America the base of our economic pyramid will collapse, and the efficacy of State Governments to shore up the public need will dissolve in the face of fiscal insolvency. There is still great wealth in America but most of it rests in very few hands. Will our federal government act to pry much of that loose?
History records the bold measures and programs that FDR initiated in his first 100 days in office and then in succeeding months and years. Here is a listing of some of them:
The Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC)
The Civil Works Administration (CWA)
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
The Federal Security Agency (FSA)
The Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC)
The National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA)
The Public Works Administration (PWA)
The Social Security Act (SSA)
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
The Works Progress Administration (WPA)
https://www.thoughtco.com/top-new-deal-programs-104687
One could say that FDR sharply turned our nation toward the Left, and he did so in an America that had just elected two conservative Republican administrations preceding his. When the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary race began we were looking towards an immediate future that no longer remotely resembles the one that the reality has replaced it with. Prior calculations about what is and what is not politically feasible were crunched with now obsolete sets of data. The America we occupy as May approaches barely resembles the America we were familiar with on the eve of the first presidential primaries. Platforms that may have made sense to run on now no longer hold up under the accumulated weight of currently pressing social needs.
This isn't about validating Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. A good case can be made that Joe Biden is precisely the human being who Americans are capable of giving their trust to now as our leader. May he now turn boldly to the left in keeping with the times that we are living in, and the solutions that are called for.
Two potentially worrisome U.S. pandemic scenarios I haven't seen discussed
The first involves the ability of Trump to "open up" the economy without the agreement of various states to comply with his mandates. I assume that Trump lacks the legal ability to force a Governor to relax shelter in place orders or to open up "non essential" businesses. But can he (with the help of congressional Republicans) in essence "starve us out" of our homes into the work place? I am not up to speed enough on standard unemployment insurance regulations, let alone "enhanced" unemployment benefits, to speculate knowledgeably about this. I know that there is both a State and Federal role in the provision of unemployment benefits,, and I know that ALL States will be highly strapped for cash this year with their own tax revenues plummeting.
To the extent that any additional federal legislation will be needed in order to provide continued financial support to individuals, either through extended and/or enhanced unemployment benefits or through direct cash grants, that gives Trump potential leverage to force States to force workers back to work even under unsafe conditions. What made me think of this is that a nephew of mine works at a large postal sorting facility on Long Island. He already knows of two of his co-workers who have died from Covid-19. He obtained a medical statement from his doctor that enabled him to stay off the job for the month of April (I am not privy to what condition was cited in that statement that provided the basis of his medical leave). But here's the point. My nephew is now on unpaid medical leave. He has no income. I assume he does not qualify for unemployment insurance but perhaps I'm mistaken.
Either way it made me think. Unemployment insurance is based on the premise that work is not available. When unemployment insurance is not available, people must somehow work in order to survive. When unemployment insurance runs out people will need to work in order to survive. If unemployment benefits are in the future denied to the self employed or gig workers, people will have to abandon staying at home and venture out to work in order to survive. If States can't fund their medicaid programs because their budgets go bust, people will have to work in order to obtain or
afford medical care. So will people be forced back into the workplace under unsafe conditions by denying them any other means of survival?
The second, in some ways inverted scenario that occurred to me is this. Will people in the relatively near future be discriminated against regarding employment opportunities if they can not provide evidence that they have personally developed anti-bodies to Covid-19? While Covid testing is only available to 1% to 2% of the public, I doubt if many professions would require proof of personal anti-bodies in order to work with the public. Perhaps first responders would be screened in that way. But could employers in the retail sector, or in large office complexes for example, require the provision of anti-body certification from potential hires? If so, might young potential employees be tempted to seek out exposure to Covid-19 on the assumption that it would not seriously sicken them due to their age, so that they could emerge from a minor bout with better job opportunities? A little far fetched, granted, but we will be entering uncharted waters whenever we attempt to reengage in wide spread commerce during a highly contagious pandemic of a disease for which there is no real treatment.
Now that Bernie is dropping out, I feel free to make this post.
First and foremost, I am glad he has suspended his campaign.
Unlike a great many here, I do see some potential good in a candidate continuing a Presidential campaign beyond the point where there is any realistic chance of that candidate winning. For a fairly recent example, John Edwards wasn't pressured by John Kerry to drop out in 2004, even way past the point where Edwards had a ghost of a chance of actually winning. And for all of that Edwards got rewarded with the VP pick.
An active campaign can still promote ideas, policies and programs potentially of long term value to our country. Joe Biden has been our defacto presumptive nominee for weeks now, and our party has already rallied behind him. There was no imperative for Sanders to rush in pulling the plug so early, it is only early April and our Convention is still many months away.
However a powerful new reality has eclipsed politics for virtually every American, and that is the pandemic. To use an apt but chilling metaphor, it has sucked "all the oxygen out of the room". No issue, no matter how profound, can be processed any longer through the prism of a presidential primary. No one has any attention left to spare for that. It made sense for Bernie to stay in the race through the Wisconsin primary because a contested Democratic presidential primary helps drive Democratic turnout on election day, and ALL Democrats in Wisconsin were seen as benefiting from that since the election just held was not just a primary. We wanted high Democratic turn out in order to defeat a conservative incumbent on Wisconsin's Supreme Court. Of course that materially changed when the pandemic made voting in person dangerous and when Wisconsin Republicans slammed the door on safer alternatives to voting in person yesterday.
So now, from any and all vantage points, the advantage for Sanders and all Democrats of his coordinating closely wherever possible with Joe Biden far exceeds the gains any possible advancement of his ideas through an ongoing campaign might offer him or the nation. Joe Biden has been extraordinarily gracious in his stance toward Bernie Sanders over the last few weeks, and I am proud of our presumptive nominee for all of that unifying grace and wisdom he has shown. I am also aware and thankful for the concrete gestures Joe has already made to be more inclusive in his own political platform of some of the policies and initiatives that both Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders ran so purposefully on. I support Joe Biden even stronger and more enthusiastically today than I did a couple of weeks ago when I shifted my preference to him here on DU.
Joe made an extraordinary both insightful and generous comment the other day about the influence on and contribution to American politics that Bernie Sanders has helped foster in the course of his two historic runs for the Presidency. On the occasion of Bernie Sanders now suspending his second and undoubtedly last campaign, let me say that i strongly concur.
Bernie Sanders has been right on the issues all along and it is time for our political establishment to catch up with him. An employer based health care system, even at it's best with strong union representation and/or highly civic minded employers, only works for those who are employed. And only until those businesses declare bankruptcy, which they tend to do when times get rough. This pandemic has exposed which workers are essential to America, and they aren't working on Wall Street (unless they are first responders). They are Nurses and shipping clerks, truck drivers and postal workers, and almost to a person they all deserve raises. The bulk of the people picking our produce, and stocking our grocery stores shelves, work for far less than $15 an hour. And no degree of fame and fortune can protect even the most privileged of Americans from disease and death when a pandemic is on the loose. We are all in this together and ultimately are only as safe as the least safe among us, be they those in homeless shelters or prisons. When they fall ill we all get exposed. If we do not shore up the base of our society than even it's peak will ultimately tumble.
Suddenly, facing an economic collapse, our government will rush to shore up the fortunes of huge energy companies, while creating a half a trillion dollar shush fund to benefit corporations. The impractical,the unthinkable, suddenly become pressing priorities when those who have influence in America feel their fortunes threatened. But it has always been deemed imprudent to guarantee something as basic as a living wage, or universal healthcare to America's working and middle classes.
Bernie Sanders has consistently called out that hypocrisy and pointed to policies that prioritize the interests of the public over those of special interests. I am proud to have supported Bernie Sanders for President. I am eager to help elect Joe Biden as President. There is no contradiction between those statements.
Trump's high water approval numbers are pathetic. By way of comparison:
September 24, 2001
Bush Job Approval Highest in Gallup History
Widespread public support for war on terrorism
https://news.gallup.com/poll/4924/bush-job-approval-highest-gallup-history.aspx
"PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's call to arms in a nationwide address last Thursday evening has elicited widespread public support for a war against terrorism, as well as the highest presidential job approval rating ever measured by Gallup since it began asking the public for its evaluation of presidents over six decades ago.
According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted September 21-22, 90% of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president, up four percentage points from a poll last weekend..."
And that was measuring approval ratings for frigging George W. Bush, not some Winston Churchill or FDR.
This is how Andrew Cuomo's approval numbers have changed since the Covid-19 pandemic hit:
"Andrew Cuomo’s Approval Ratings Are Soaring And Trump Feels Some Type of Way: ‘He’s Gotten Good Marks, I’ve Gotten Great Marks’"
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/andrew-cuomos-approval-ratings-are-soaring-and-trump-feels-some-type-of-way-hes-gotten-good-marks-ive-gotten-great-marks/
"Cuomo favorable bump:
Overall: 44% favorable in February->71% favorable now (+27)
Among Republicans: 20%->42% (+22)
Among Independents: 35%->68% (+33)
Among Democrats: 59%->87% (+28)
Trump’s own approval was in the news, with Gallup noting that his approval was 49%, with 44% disapproval, and 60% approval for his handling of the coronavirus crisis. On that front, Cuomo is at 87% in New York, 70% with Republicans, and 75% with self-identified conservative voters, Gourevitch also noted..."
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/andrew-cuomos-approval-ratings-are-soaring-and-trump-feels-some-type-of-way-hes-gotten-good-marks-ive-gotten-great-marks/
And just to keep these observations "Bi-partisan", here's some recent polling on Ohio's Republican Governor Mike DeWine. (WARNING, this story subject line distorts the contents to make it more Trump friendly):
"Poll: Ohioans Approve Of DeWine, Trump's Coronavirus Response
By Taylor Haggerty • Mar 26, 2020"
https://www.wksu.org/post/poll-ohioans-approve-dewine-trumps-coronavirus-response#stream/0
"The poll asked participants about recent measures taken by both state and federal governments in light of the coronavirus, including the closure of schools and day cares. About 48 percent of the 1,025 Ohioans surveyed said they strongly approve of DeWine’s steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19 overall. About 32 percent say they somewhat approve.
Specific measures also received strong support. The poll found nearly 88 percent of respondents support the governor’s closure of K-12 schools, and 82 percent said they are in favor of the closure of Ohio’s day cares...
...The poll was administered prior to the stay-at-home order issued by DeWine, Copeland said, and doesn’t include approval ratings for the measure...
..Trump’s approval rating is about 31 percent among Ohio respondents, and approval for his handling of coronavirus is about 35 percent"
This is starting to look like the greatest crisis our nation has faced since WWII. Our nation always reflexively rallies behind our leader in times of great emergency's and the best Donald Trump can do is scrape against a ceiling of 50% overall approval ratings? Even that low number is staring to seem like his peak He's been on the air daily for hours for close to two weeks now. There is no rallying behind this President and increasingly the numbers show it.
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