https://twitter.com/charlescwcooke/status/1504499552476442635

Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy

A brief note on a very strange day

Molly McKew

This article is an excerpt of a longer piece that will be posted shortly on Great Power — but given the strange events of the past 18 hours or so, including Putin’s “fifth column” speech from the bunker and a lot of strange flight traffic out of Moscow to points east and south, I wanted to post this section now. Maybe, sitting in Estonia as I write this, it just looks worse from here and will come to nothing. But, something feels … not great. This excerpt examines how to think about what previously seemed unthinkable, and urges us to be prepared for every eventuality. Not to engage in a cycle of escalation — but to decisively end it when the moment comes.

I think there are two points worth dwelling on.

First, there will always be fresh terror from Putin. A show trial. Chernobyl. Chem/bio insinuations. Sometimes I feel we go looking for new terror to control us when there is already terror enough. Until we take control of the pacing and strategy of this war, the fears Putin creates for us are boxing us in. This has been the Russian strategy from the start. I don’t know why we are not more clear on this. It is the clear reason why we have so much intelligence on what they planned to do and what it would look like. Because they wanted the White House to see it, because they knew what the likely reaction would be. And they were right. We put ourselves into the box and took actions off the table that could have changed the outcome. We accepted the stage that Putin set. We still are. I will always believe that this is the wrong course of action. It has led us to this situation where Putin seems to be unraveling and the danger increasing before our eyes.

This fear is absolutely useless. “Russian warship, go f*ck yourself” must be the mandatory attitude of whoever will lead us through this confrontation with Putin.

Second, on nukes and Putin’s nuclear blackmail. Putin is a coward — by which I mean, he is not brave. He plans and acts in ways where he believes he has the greatest advantage and will endure the least costs for the greatest rewards. He does take risks — when there is empty space before him into which he can move before an opponent can. But he is not the type to die bravely and nobly in heroic sacrifice for his nation — as evidenced by his broadcasts from a bunker in the Urals (or wherever).

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We are approaching an end stage where the only possible way out is a military defeat of Putin — a strategic defeat of Putin, before everything unravels too far to stop a worse calamity. Are we ready for that? Not on old paper plans, but in our minds? It is imperative that we stop reacting, and start to set the terms, while this is still possible.

We must stop being afraid of Putin — as the Ukrainians have done. It is the only way ahead.

More: https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

1. Lavrov was halfway to Beijing last night when his plane turned around abruptly and returned to Moscow
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1504407969735364615
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1504429016329109506

2. Planes leaving with transponders on to make it look like the Russian elite being evacuated from Moscow to more secure location in the south Urals? This is probably just signaling and Putin just wants everyone to know. https://twitter.com/TeslaAgnostic/status/1504390902554505220

3. A large exodus of private jets out of Moscow towards Dubai this morning too.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

Daily Beast contributing editor Craig Copetas says he’s been told that Putin has people tasting his food before he eats it and that last month, he replaced his entire personal staff of 1,000 people.

Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian state TV today to denounce Russians who opposed his war with Ukraine as “scum” and “traitors.”

But behind the scenes, the dictator is increasingly paranoid and fears that someone in his inner circle will poison him, a new report says.

Daily Beast contributing editor Craig Copetas says he’s been told that Putin has people tasting his food before he eats it and that last month, he replaced his entire personal staff of 1,000 people.

“Laundresses, secretaries, cooks — to a whole new group of people. The assessment from the intelligence community is that he's scared,” Copetas said.

More: https://www.insideedition.com/fearing-poisoning-vladimir-putin-replaces-1000-of-his-personal-staff-73847

Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place

LONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.

More: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-put-its-enemies-such-united-states-their-place-medvedev-says-2022-03-17/

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1503481678681067530

Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite

As the west focuses on oligarchs, a far smaller group has its grip on true power in Moscow. Who are the siloviki — and what motivates them?


In describing Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, I have often thought of a remark by John Maynard Keynes about Georges Clemenceau, French prime minister during the first world war: that he was an utterly disillusioned individual who “had one illusion — France”.

Something similar could be said of Russia’s governing elite, and helps to explain the appallingly risky collective gamble they have taken by invading Ukraine. Ruthless, greedy and cynical they may be — but they are not cynical about the idea of Russian greatness.

The western media employ the term “oligarch” to describe super-wealthy Russians in general, including those now wholly or largely resident in the west. The term gained traction in the 1990s, and has long been seriously misused. In the time of President Boris Yeltsin, a small group of wealthy businessmen did indeed dominate the state, which they plundered in collaboration with senior officials. This group was, however, broken by Putin during his first years in power.


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These men are known in Russia as the “siloviki” — “men of force”, or perhaps even, in the Irish phrase, “hard men”. A clear line should be drawn between the siloviki and the wider Russian elites — large and very disparate and disunited congeries of top businessmen, senior officials outside the inner circle, leading media figures, top generals, patriotic intellectuals and the motley crew of local notables, placemen and fixers who make up the leadership of Putin’s United Russia party.

More: https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd007?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9