RandomNumbers
RandomNumbers's JournalChanging my preference to Warren.
Truthfully, I like both Joe and Liz, but I can only pick one here. I could go back to "undecided", but since I am down to two that I feel strongly in favor of, and we are close to the first primaries, I felt I had to pick one.
I was backing Steyer here for a while. I think he has a lot to offer, but it's been clear for some time that he is going nowhere in the prez primary. So again, with first primaries upon us, it is time to make a real choice.
Why Warren, not Joe? I think, all other factors being equal, Joe is inherently stronger against Trump in the GE. But all other factors aren't equal. I don't have actual numbers but sense from my experience with people IRL, Warren would be a far preferable choice for Sanders supporters than Biden. We need that energy in the campaign, and keeping those folks in the fold helps build the party for the next generation. (I don't agree with their assessment of Biden, by the way, but I'm a big fan of reality-based decision-making.)
Also, the "first choice Warren" voters I've met IRL are almost universally respectful and supportive of Biden as a solid choice, recognizing the need to beat Trump is absolutely the essential goal here. Policy platforms are good for knowing the candidate's governing philosophy, but get real, without the Presidency AND the Senate, it will be tough even to get good judges on the bench let alone pass progressive legislation. Someone with Warren's persona (and Biden's too) has a better shot to unite the country behind moving forward on some goals, even if only a little compared with where we want to go. Moving forward a little, is massively better than going backwards at light-speed, as we do under continued reign of Trumpism. So, the flexible and congenial nature of her supporters, combined with very progressive legislative philosophy, helps me make this selection. (Again, reflecting just my personal experience, I don't count DU for judgments like this so I am not speaking of DU members)
Either way, of course in the General Election I will vote for the nominee. I hope and do believe it will be either Joe or Liz.
Time to revisit: Joe Biden and VAWA
A reply on another thread suggested that there was some similarity between Biden, Sanders, and their common generation's attitude toward women.
I have to call BULLSHIT in the strongest way I can.
There's some old stuff on Sanders that illuminates his attitudes towards women, I'm not going to dredge that up here. (Though others probably will if someone begs hard enough, by claiming they have no idea what I'm talking about.)
Biden, on the other hand, pushed VAWA through. (the landmark Violence Against Women Act, in case anyone is not familiar.
https://time.com/5675029/violence-against-women-act-history-biden/
(emphasis added)
...
In Nourse’s opinion, then-Senator Biden was motivated to push for the bill because of his empathy for women who had approached him about the idea, and those who testified in the hearings in the House and Senate.
...
In terms of the passage of the Violence Against Women Act, Nourse says Biden’s empathy was an asset.
“He’s criticized for his emotion and his empathy. But it also means he has grit; when it gets in that he’s got to do something, he’s not taking no for an answer,” Nourse says. “That bill could only have been passed because of Joe Biden.”
Biden has his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate, and in his history in the Senate. But he's gotten shit done that mattered to women's rights. So anyone trying to equate him with Sanders in that area ... no. Just no.
Steyer made the debate.
Heard it on Rachel. Here's an article.
I don't have much to say other than, maybe he's a better politician than I had been giving him credit for.
I have him as my "choice" here because he talks about the right things in the right way, and I think it would be great for him to have a larger audience. I have no delusion that he has any chance to win, among lifelong politicians. (Not sure I would want him to, either. Maybe we need someone who knows how the sausage grinder works.)
In the actual primary, if he is still there, I may or may not vote for him. But either way, I'll be glad he had a chance to be heard. Yes, he can buy that chance, and he has been ... not just now that he's running for Prez. I'm not one who assumes anyone who has money is necessarily a complete asshole. At least he's been putting his $$$ behind good causes for a while now. I respect that. And I think he's a good addition to the debate.
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/10/21060196/steyer-democratic-debate-polling-qualifier
Steyer’s debate qualification came in one fell swoop Thursday night, when Fox News released new polls for the Nevada caucuses, which will take place February 22, and for the South Carolina primary on February 29. Though Biden still leads the field in both states, Steyer came in third in Nevada — tied with Warren — and was catapulted to a narrow second place in South Carolina, just slightly ahead of Sanders.
In Nevada, Steyer claimed 12 percent of caucus-goers, albeit with a 4 percent margin of error. He did even better in South Carolina, earning 15 percent support with a 3.5 percent margin of error, representing an 11-point jump since October 2019. Both polls were conducted earlier this week, from January 5 through January 8.
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