October 14, 2019

Nate Siver (538): Warren's Rise Hasn't Come At Biden's Expense

I thought this was worth posting.

Oct. 14, 2019, at 5:45 AM
Biden’s numbers are steady in post-Ukraine polls.
By Nate Silver
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elizabeth-warren-rise-hasnt-come-at-joe-biden-expense/

Snip//

I just want to make a narrower point: Joe Biden is still doing reasonably well in the polls.
Elizabeth Warren’s doing well, too! She probably hasn’t overtaken Biden in national polls, yet, but it’s pretty darn close — close enough that she was momentarily ahead in one national polling average (from RealClearPolitics) last week. You’d certainly rather be in Warren’s shoes than Biden’s in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Although not in South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states aren’t so clear.) In fact, if you want to argue that she’s the most likely nominee, I don’t have any real problem with that. I also don’t have any real problem if you think it’s Biden, or that it’s too close to call.

But Warren’s gains have come mostly at the expense of the rest of the field — from Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, in particular — and from other candidates, such as Cory Booker, whose campaigns never really took off in the first place. Relatively little of Warren’s increased support has come from Biden, whose topline numbers have mostly been steady
.
In fact, Biden’s numbers haven’t declined at all since President Trump’s phone call with Ukraine became the dominant political story. We can see this by taking a before and after comparison of polls that have come out in the past couple of weeks. It’s hard to pinpoint an exact date when Ukraine and impeachment rose to the top of the news. But Monday, September 23, when seven first-term Democratic members of Congress published an editorial calling for Trump’s impeachment over allegations that he encouraged Ukraine to investigate Biden and and his son, was probably the closest thing to an inflection point. .... So here are the results from nine pollsters who have conducted a national poll since Sept. 23.1
National Democratic primary polls since Sept. 23
Average results of Democratic primary candidates in national polls conducted after Sept. 23, 2019, op-ed calling for Trump’s impeachment
Candidate Fox Har YG Q’pac M.C. IBD Ipsos Mon. DFP Avg
Biden 32% 36% 25% 26% 33% 26% 21% 25% 23% 27.4
Warren 22 16 28 29 21 27 15 28 36 24.7
Sanders 17 14 13 16 19 10 16 15 15 15.0
Buttigieg 4 6 5 4 5 7 4 5 6 5.1
Harris 5 6 5 3 6 3 4 5 5 4.7
Yang 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.7
O’Rourke 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2.0
Booker 2 2 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 1.4
Klobuchar 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1.3
Castro 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1.0
Gabbard 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0.7
Steyer 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.6
Only candidates who have qualified for next week’s debate are listed in the chart.
FOX = Fox News; HAR = HarrisX; YG = YouGov; Q’PAC = Quinnipiac University; M.C. = Morning Consult; IBD = IBD/TIPP; MON. = Monmouth University; DFP = Data For Progress / YouGov Blue

In an average of those polls, Biden’s still on top at 27.4 percent, with Warren in second at 24.7 percent. I don’t necessarily buy that Warren pulled ahead of Biden last week, as the RCP average briefly showed; for some reason, RCP’s average didn’t include HarrisX, which is usually one of Biden’s better polls. It’s also sort of a moot point, though. There’s no national primary, and if Warren keeps gaining ground at the rate she has been over the past few months, she’ll surpass Biden eventually.
What there hasn’t been, though, is much sign of a decline in Biden’s numbers, despite all the media narratives constantly predicting one. Here was the most recent pre-Ukraine version (all interviews conducted before Sept. 23) of those same national polls.
National Democratic primary polls before Sept. 23 [Go to the link for the chark]
****
So Biden was at 26.9 percent on average in the pre-Ukraine polls … and he’s at 27.4 percent now. There’s been no decline at all, obviously.

Warren has gained quite a bit of ground, though, having gone from 19 percent to 24.7 percent. Where is that support coming from?
Biden is steady, and Warren is gaining, post-Ukraine news
Average results of Democratic primary candidates in national polls before and after the Sept. 23, 2019, op-ed calling for Trump’s ****

Some of it has come from Harris, whom Warren is competing with for college-educated voters. Some has come from Sanders. And some of it may have come from second-tier candidates such as Booker, whose solid debate performances seem to have been forgotten and who is back to just 1 or 2 percent in the polls. YouGov’s polling of early-state voters suggests that relatively little of it has come from Biden, on the other hand.
If there’s a bit of bad news for Warren, it’s that she’s already picked off a lot of the low-hanging fruit. She can perhaps grab a few more Sanders voters, especially if some are concerned over the heart attack he suffered two weeks ago. But Sanders has already lost around two-thirds of the voters that he had in 2016, so the ones that remain with him may be a relatively hardy lot. Meanwhile, there aren’t that many more Harris supporters to win over.
That’s not to say that it’s all going swimmingly for Biden, either. Although his topline numbers haven’t changed much, Warren has surpassed him on measures of enthusiasm, she tends to have better favorability ratings than he does, and, obviously, Iowa and New Hampshire are huge potential liabilities for Biden if he loses them.

But our thesis about Biden’s candidacy has never been that he’s the most perfect candidate or has run the most flawless campaign, but rather that he commands deep loyalty from constituencies that often receive little coverage from media elites, including seniors, non-college-educated whites, African Americans and moderates. There aren’t many signs that these voters support Biden solely because of name recognition, or that their support is otherwise superficial. In fact, Biden — like Warren — often does better among voters who are paying the most attention to the campaign.

Now, if you want to argue that the 70 percent of Democrats who don’t have Biden as their first choice are cooling on him, I think you’re on firmer ground. And that could absolutely be a problem for him if he and Warren — perhaps along with other candidates — are scrambling to pick up additional supporters after the early states.
To a first approximation, though, Biden’s numbers have been quite steady. Other than a post-announcement bounce, when he briefly surged to near 40 percent, he’s been somewhere between 26 percent and 32 percent in the RCP average for literally the entire campaign:

In contrast to certain other campaigns, which naively thought that Biden’s support might just up and disappear, Warren’s team has caught up to him the hard way: by building a coalition of around 25 percent of the Democratic electorate on her own, including many voters that were initially skeptical of her.

Empirically speaking, the mid-to-high-20s in the polls tends to be a fairly robust and sustainable position. It doesn’t necessarily make you a favorite to win the nomination, especially when there’s another candidate who’s polling at about the same number. But through this point in a presidential primary, few candidates who have sustained numbers in the mid-to-high-20s have completely flopped. Those numbers tend to be good enough that you’ll win your share of states (past Iowa caucus winners have often gotten around 25 to 30 percent of the vote) or at least your share of delegates. They mean that you’ll probably be one of the trains leaving the station as the field starts to winnow. They reflect a measure of success unto themselves.

All right, this is getting a little grandiose, so let’s save the rest of the analysis for after the debate. Besides, the Democratic primary just isn’t all that complicated right now. Roughly speaking, the nomination process is going reasonably well for both Warren and Biden. And while there are other candidates who are exceeding expectations,2 it isn’t going all that well for anyone else.

To a first approximation, though, Biden’s numbers have been quite steady. Other than a post-announcement bounce, when he briefly surged to near 40 percent, he’s been somewhere between 26 percent and 32 percent in the RCP average for literally the entire campaign:

[RCP tracking chart here]

In contrast to certain other campaigns, which naively thought that Biden’s support might just up and disappear, Warren’s team has caught up to him the hard way: by building a coalition of around 25 percent of the Democratic electorate on her own, including many voters that were initially skeptical of her.

BTW

October 12, 2019

The Poll Wars: To HarrisX or not to HarrisX

I would like to see more Humor in the back and forth on polls for the upper tier candidates, Biden, Warren and Sanders. I am going to vote BLUE in the GE and I am fine with the co-front-runners Joe and Liz. Either would make a fantastic president thugh I am an unabashed Biden supporter. And Bernie makes Trump look like a fool.

So I am listing the All-Poll-Averages of those listed by 538 in two groups with a further average of all of them. Take your pick and have your say. We have great candidates and I love the enthusiasm of their supporters -- Vote blue to take our government back...

I. Good News Biden

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/8-11: JB 36, EW 16, BS 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 32, EW 22, BS 17
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6: JB 33, EW 21, BS 19
Rounded Averages: Biden 34, Warren 20, Sanders 17 (Biden +14)

II. Good News Warren

YouGov Blue/
Data for Progress LV: 9/23-10/: JB 23, EW 36, BS 15
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 25, EW 29, BS 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7: JB 26, EW 29, BS 16
Rounded Averages: Biden 25, Warren 31, Sanders 15 (Warren +6)

All-Poll-Averages: Biden 30, Warren 26, Sanders 16 (Biden +4)

Biden holding steady overall, Warren rising, Sanders static

October 11, 2019

All-Poll-Averages (from 538 listing) Democratic Primary: Averages: JB 30, EW 24, BS 15 (UPDATED)

All-Poll-Averages Democratic Primary: Averages (rounded): Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +6.6)

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls (only excluding duplicates, I.e., only the most recent HarrisX) and limited to October polls only. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

October Polls Only:

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/7-10 35 17 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8 32 22 17
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8 25 29 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7 26 29 16

Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +5.25 - Corrected)

If I did the last 6 as RCP did (but with the last six as in 538), the result is not much different. It would include polls that overlapped the end of September and the begining of Ocober,keeping it within the October range at any rate.

Morning Consult ( LV 9/30 - 10/6 33 21 19
IBD/TIPP VRV 9/26 - 10/3 26 27 10

Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.16, Sanders 15 (Biden +5.34)

On my last post there was a lively discussion (mostly Warren supporters) about HarrisX and Morning Consult as online outiers. Given the results from FOX News they seem perfectly in line, but here all polls exclusive to October (the last five listed) with no prejudice against YouGov and Quinnipiac which show different results. Morning Consult and IBDF/TIPP both had initial dates in September and therefore not reflected here. So it is alliteratively balanced. Biden supporters can be encuraged by FOC and Warren supporters by YouGov and Quinnipiac, but it all levels out.

RCP with its selection of polls shows a slight uptick for Biden and a slighter downtick for Warren. There is also an uptick for Sanders.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

October 10, 2019

Americans have more confidence in Biden's ethical standards than Trumps

Glad they are waking up. These figures will get better for Bien and worst for Trump as the impeachment revs up.
Biden 47% would vs Trump would 35%
Biden 38% vs. Trump would not 60%



Biden's support for impeachment is not too little too late, but the right amount at the right time.

The Pelosi/Biden strategy is roke up the coals, put the irons in the fire, and strike when the irons are hot.

With over 5% favoring impeachment, it is the right time to strike.

October 9, 2019

Where do we stand on state polls -- a selective compendium

Not all states, but a bunch of them. Mostly September; It will be interesting as they are updated.

The Latest State Polls for the Democratic Primary

Pa: Biden 17, Warren 9; Buttigieg 8, Sanders. 6 1
Wis: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17. 2
SC: Biden 41, Warren 12, Sanders 10. 3
Ohio: Biden 29, Sanders 27, Warren 21 4
Ariz: Biden 15, Warren 35, Sanders 19, Buttigieg 13. 5
Calif: Biden 22, Warren 23, Sanders 21. 6
Iowa: Bidden 20, Warren 22, Sanders 11. 7
N.H.: Biden 25, Warren 27, Sanders 12, B uttigieg 10. 8
Fla.: Biden 43, Warren 26, Sanders 10. 9
Nev: Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 18. 10
Texas: Biden , 28, Warren 18, Sanders 12, O’Rourke 12. 11
Wisc. Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17. 12

1 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (C+) 9/30-10/6 (RV)
2 Fox News (A) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
3 Fox News (A) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
4vEmerson College (B+) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
5 Change Research (C+) 9/27-8 (LV)
6 Public Policy Institute of California (A), 9/16-25 (LV)
7 Selzer & Co. (A+) 9/14-18 (LV)
8 Monmouth University (A+) 9/17-21 (LV)
9 Tel. Opinion Research (B) 9/15-18 (LV)
10 CNN/SSRS (A-) 9/22-26 (LV)
11Quinnipiac University (A-) 9/4-9- (RV)
12 Fox News (A) 9/29-10/3 (LV)

October 9, 2019

NIX RCP No Cherry Picking: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)

NIX RCP No Cherry Picking Polls: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Let’s keep our perspective: You can’t just say HarrisX and Morning Consult are outliers and ignore them. Here there is no eliminating polls we don’t like but just as 538 posts them. There sampling includes a broader sampling of critical states (see recent polls for Ohio and PA).

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls. The sample means LV (likely voters), RV (registered voters), etc. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders

HarrisX (10/4-8)(C+)(LV): JB 36, EW 18, BS 15 (Biden +14)
Quinnipiac (10/4-7)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 29, BS 16 (Warren +3)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6)( (LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) JB 22, EW 26, BS 14.75 (Warren +4)

Averages (rounded): Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)

I will update as new polls are released.

October 8, 2019

Trump Lashes Out At Biden (MSNBC): Biden 48 vs Trump 39

Trump Lashes Out At Biden; Biden Leads Trump In Polls | Morning Joe | MSNBC

&list=PLDIVi-vBsOEy6jMSt_r_SMj9F5tuqdtKe&index=4&t=0s

Warren 45 to 41 and Sanders 45 to 40.
I suppose most people have seen this. The Morning Joe hosts were incredulous about Joe's lead over trump and how trump fears Biden. It's woth watching if you haven't watched it live.

October 8, 2019

538 National Polling Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)

538 National Polling Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls 538. Like RCP, the following averages are given according to the last four polls released. The polls include both online and live polls. The sample means LV (likely voters), RV (registered voters), etc. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders

HarrisX (10/4-10/7)(C+)(LV): JB 33, EW 19, BS 16 (Biden +14)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6) B- (LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) Biden 22, Warren 26, Sanders 14.75 (Warren +4)

Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)

I will update as new polls are released.

October 7, 2019

NBC: Trump is pushing a baseless conspiracy about the Bidens and China

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/trump-pushing-baseless-conspiracy-about-bidens-china-here-s-what-n1062551

Trump is pushing a baseless conspiracy about the Bidens and China. Here's what we know.
There's no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of either the former vice president or his son, in China or elsewhere.

Hope this gets traction to break through the fog Trump is laying on voters heads...


After weeks of pushing debunked conspiracies about wrongdoing by former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter in Ukraine, President Donald Trump publicly urged China Thursday to investigate unfounded allegations that the younger Biden received a "payoff."

The invitation to the Chinese government, denounced by Democrats and excoriated by two Republican senators, mirrored the private behavior on which the House is partially basing their formal impeachment inquiry — using the office of the presidency to press a foreign leader to investigate a political rival. Trump has defended his actions in recent days by saying he has a right, even a duty, to root out "corruption" around the world.

But much like the president's Ukraine conspiracy theories, the serious accusations that Trump and his allies, including personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, have leveled against the Bidens with regard to China are unsupported. All the details of Hunter Biden's business dealings aren't known, since he has always been a private citizen, but there’s no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of either Biden. Trump and his allies has yet to offer evidence of the claims, while the former vice president has said the president is the one who is corrupt.

October 7, 2019

Biden faces dual challenges from Trump, Warren

By Amie Parnes and Jonathan Easley - 10/05/19 05:13 P
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/464445-biden-faces-dual-challenges-from-trump-warren

Not really a hit piece. It acknowledges Biden's frontrunner status but shows the challenges he faces. Biden supporters need to step up and give Joe a boost. He is our best bet.

Joe Biden is at a crossroads in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, as President Trump fights an impeachment inquiry by unloading on the former vice president and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) overtakes him in some polls.

Trump and his allies are placing a big bet that they can tear Biden down by implicating him in a Ukraine scandal that has engulfed the administration and provoked House Democrats to launch an impeachment inquiry.

The Trump campaign is putting millions of dollars behind Biden-Ukraine ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, with the sole intention of damaging him among Democrats in the early-voting states.

Warren’s rise has also become a real threat to Biden, whose front-runner status is being challenged in earnest for the first time this year.

Four months out from the Iowa caucuses, Biden’s team is already talking about looking beyond the Hawkeye State, where the two most recent surveys show Warren with a slight edge. Warren has also caught Biden in recent national polls and surveys of New Hampshire and Nevada.

Third quarter fundraising numbers also have set off alarms in Biden World after he placed fourth among White House hopefuls, bringing in just over $15 million, a $7 million decline from the second quarter.

Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) posted totals in the $25 million range, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg brought in $19.2 million.

“This is either the beginning of the end, or the moment where they flip the switch and it all comes together,” said one Democratic fundraiser who supports Biden. “But the signs are not pointing in a good direction right now.”

Trump’s Ukraine scandal has become a major drag on Biden’s campaign, leaving allies split over the best way forward.

There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that Biden sought to have a Ukrainian prosecutor fired to protect his son’s business interests in the country, although the appearance of a conflict is a problem.

Biden’s role in the impeachment drama ensures the matter will stay in the headlines, playing into Trump’s strategy to keep Biden on the defensive and at the center of melee.

Biden has been hitting back at Trump, most notably during a speech in Reno, Nev., this week in which he accused a “desperate and defensive” president of “smearing” his family.

The former vice president believes the attacks are borne out of Trump’s fears that he’d lose to Biden in the general election.