February 27, 2020

Joe Scarborogh: Biden turns in his best performance of the cycle

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-turns-in-his-best-performance-of-the-cycle-joe-79457861507

He also has a segment on ow Bloomberg is hurting Biden and what would happen to Biden's campaign if Bloomberg dropped out. He suggests that since Bloomberg got in the race because he saw Sanders and Warren tromping him, that if Biden wins big in SC that he should drop out Sunday morning so that Bidens lead in many states will be reinstated.

Joe considered Biden's strong debate performance and the Clyburn endorsement as a game changer.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-20-race-would-mean-for-biden-if-bloomberg-dropped-out-79523397895

538 is also looking at what a big win by Biden would mean for the race.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/?yptr=yahoo

snip//

But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By “momentum,” I don’t mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.1

In the scenario above — after a big South Carolina win — Biden would be the plurality favorite in every Southern state on Super Tuesday, namely: Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas. While Sanders would remain the favorite in every non-Southern state2 except Minnesota3 including — critically — California, where he has a huge polling lead and where 415 pledged delegates are at stake.

But even if Sanders racks up big margins in California, this isn’t a great outcome for him from a delegate standpoint. He’d only be about 150 delegates ahead of Biden out of a total of 3,979 pledged delegates eventually to be awarded.

And from a narrative standpoint — and the polling bounce that results from it — it could be fairly bad for him. Sanders might not get very many wins in the Eastern and Central time zone states that the media will cover heavily early in the evening. And the wins Sanders would get would mostly be in white, liberal states where he was expected to win — until California reports its results, but that creates its own problems for Sanders.

I'M SENDING JOR MY LAST 10 BUCKS IN MY ACCOUNT TODAY!!

BIDEN HAS THE MOJO(e)

February 26, 2020

Another Politico article solely on Biden--good, despite the corny title

Biden finally shows up to the debate stage — just in time
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/biden-democratic-debate-117654

The former VP's strongest debate performance to date could help reassure supporters ahead of a make-or-break stretch for his campaign. By NATASHA KORECKI 02/26/2020 12:33 AM EST

Joe Biden turned in a debate performance Tuesday night that might have just saved him from elimination.

Desperately in need of some positive news heading into the must-win South Carolina primary on Saturday and then Super Tuesday, the former vice president snapped a string of lousy debate outings that had stoked doubts about his viability as a candidate, let alone a frontrunner.

He went on the attack. He defended Barack Obama’s honor. Biden, who rarely riles a crowd, was often greeted by cheers, whistles and applause. When Bernie Sanders tried to hit back at Biden, he was booed.

Though not entirely devoid of the verbal misfires and rambling syntax that has plagued him, it was the strongest of his 10 debates. And it came just in time: South Carolina has long been Biden’s firewall, given his appeal to African American voters, who play an outsize role in the Democratic primary electorate.

The Biden team tried to sell his distant-second finish to Sanders in Nevada as the start of a turnaround. But only victory in South Carolina will truly reset his candidacy. His longtime lead in the polls began shrinking after his losses in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But Biden's outing Tuesday night, coupled with the expected endorsement from powerful House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, will likely help him reassure anxious supporters. Clyburn wields huge influence in South Carolina politics.

Early on, Biden laid into Sanders over the Vermont senator’s past votes on guns and on Sanders’ flirtation with primarying Barack Obama in 2012.

“When we talk about progressive, let's talk about being progressive,” Biden began.

Biden went on to cite the mass shooting at the nearby Mother Emanuel church where a white supremacist killed nine people in 2015. “Bernie voted five times against the Brady bill, and wanted a waiting period … of 12 hours. I'm not saying he's responsible for the nine deaths, but that man would not have been able to get that weapon with the waiting period" he wanted.

Sanders responded saying he regretted some votes in the Senate and pointed back at controversial votes Biden had taken, including on the Iraq war.

Biden also alluded to Sanders’ flirtation with attempting to primary Obama, an issue that’s the focus of a new digital ad from the Biden campaign.

Biden also had his fair share of luck. He was able to escape the crossfire since billionaire Mike Bloomberg played the role of villain all night. And Sanders, as the frontrunner, drew most of the arrows, not Biden.

But Biden likely scored points when Sanders attempted to defend recent controversial remarks about Fidel Castro by likening them to past remarks made by Obama.

“The fact of the matter is [Obama], in fact, does not, did not, has never embraced an authoritarian regime and does not now,” Biden said to applause.

February 26, 2020

Politico snips on Biden's excellent performance

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/democratic-debate-takeaways-117653

Who had the best night? Who had the worst night? Politio seldom gives Biden the time of day, so this is choice.

snips//

For months, Biden only barely survived debates — pummeled here, bumbling there. On Tuesday, he offered a cogent defense of the Obama era, highlighting his experience on issues ranging from gun control to funding for the Centers for Disease Control. He said, “I’m not going to be quiet anymore,” and he wasn’t. Meanwhile, with Biden’s elevation, Buttigieg suffered. He could draw contrasts with Sanders. But Biden has a big part of that lane, and he didn’t give any of it up tonight.

Korecki: The Biden that his supporters and team always wanted finally showed up Tuesday night. He was substantive, feisty and forceful. Biden needs South Carolina to keep his presidential bid alive. He showed that tonight. He began by immediately laying into Sanders on the Vermont senator’s past votes on guns and on Sanders’ flirtation with primarying Barack Obama in 2012. Both points knocked Sanders on his heels — something that so far has rarely happened in this race.

Korecki: This debate may have just helped Biden seal the deal in South Carolina. As POLITICO reported on Sunday, powerful House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is to endorse the former vice president Wednesday morning. Though the deal with Clyburn was already cut, Biden’s performance tonight only makes it an easier sell for Clyburn, who wields huge influence in South Carolina politics. The debate performance and Clyburn’s backing help create much-needed momentum moving into Saturday’s primary.

Despite their negatives on some good previous debate performances, they did not hold back this time. Thye also noted that astronger Biden is a negative for Sanders.

February 26, 2020

Markos Moulitsas: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders winners SC debate

Markos Moulitsas, Founder of Daily Kos <campaigns@dailykos.com>

snip//

Winners and losers from the South Carolina Democratic debate
.
In the order that the winners were presented:

Winner: Joe Biden

Perhaps his best debate to date, he was comfortable in an audience in a state that clearly loves Joe. The fact that this is his make-or-break moment didn’t hurt. He was focused and cogent. Unlike other debates, Biden didn’t lose focus mid-answer, or trail off into incoherence at the end of one. It still grates how he wrote every bill and passed every law and met every person and nothing ever got done without him. Also, his interrupting all over Amy Klobuchar on the gun issue was painful. But overall, in an obnoxious, poorly moderated debate, he did what he needed to do. Perhaps more than anyone on stage, he was cognizant of where he was, and what Saturday’s electorate looked like (Black). His final-answer promise of a Black female Supreme Court justice was pitch-perfect.

Second Winner: Elizabeth Warren

Warren was the only candidate who didn’t think "louder is better”. She kept her composure and demeanor the entire debate, and even exploited the shitty moderation to good effect—more than once stepping in to answer a question without even bothering to raise her hand. Clearly, rules were for suckers, and she took advantage of the chaos.

Unfortunately, her performance wasn’t as strong as last week’s, and she should’ve pivoted off Bloomberg quite a bit more. There was no use in kicking that carcass dead. He isn’t siphoning votes from her. Bernie Sanders is. And other than some nods to effectiveness, she didn’t take him on directly.

Third Winner: Bernie Sanders

As was expected, Sanders took a great deal of incoming. However, he fended most off by simply ignoring the questions and talking about whatever it was he wanted to talk about. Obnoxious? Perhaps, but by the time he finished talking, everyone had forgotten the question. It was an effective debate tactic, and one that frankly, Mike Bloomberg should’ve used himself.

At one point, Sanders began looking flustered, unused to all the incoming, but he was bailed out by an opportune commercial break, and for the most part, in the second half of the debate, the rest of the candidates on stage forgot that they were supposed to challenge the frontrunner. A sustained attack might have damaged him more. So he either emerged with little overall damage, or the gun stuff, in particular, knocked him down a peg or two. I’m guessing the former.

Losers:

Amy Klobuchar: "...she continued to give no reason for sticking around."
Pete Buttigieg: "He, in particular, was a victim to the shitty moderation...".
The billionaires: "Mike Bloomberg’s carcass showed up on stage, just for Warren to kick it dead some more."
Tom Steyer:"there’s no reason for him to be in this race. There never was. There never will be. He should go back to doing what he was doing prior—funding progressive efforts to turn our country Blue."

February 25, 2020

Biden is smaking it in SC Poll Averages-Joe Soaring

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#South_Carolina_primary



Rising in the polls as moderates move to Joe:



And here are the 100% Nevada results.

February 24, 2020

Clyburn poised to endorse Biden in big boost before S.C. primary

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

The House majority whip wields enormous sway in the state, especially among African Americans.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, who wields enormous influence in his home state of South Carolina, is planning to endorse Joe Biden on Wednesday, multiple sources with knowledge of the Democrat’s plans told POLITICO.

The planned endorsement is expected three days ahead of the state's Saturday primary, giving Biden an important boost in a state that will likely determine the fate of his candidacy. Clyburn, the highest ranking African American in Congress, has long been close with Biden and has been open about his affinity for the former vice president during the Democratic primary.

Biden won the majority support of Black voters in Nevada and still holds the lead in SC. The debate, Clyburn's endorsement, and the campaign this week will give Joe momentum this week.

February 24, 2020

Biden to grab second in Nevada, above threshold to win delegates, NBC projects

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-grab-second-nevada-above-021845339.html

Only Bernie and Joe left standing (96.3% reporting). The only candidates to get Nevada delegates. .

NBC News•February 24, 2020

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Former Vice President Joe Biden will finish second in the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses, NBC News projected Sunday night, and will likely earn seven national convention delegates.

The second-place finish, added to the endorsement of South Carolina's top Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn — which will come Wednesday, NBC News has learned — will give Biden momentum heading into this week's South Carolina primary.
***
Official backing from Clyburn, colloquially known as the "South Carolina Kingmaker" for his heavy influence in the state's Democratic politics, could help cement what Biden has predicted would be a first-place finish in South Carolina. Clyburn, who as majority whip is the third-ranking Democrat in the House, will formally endorse Biden ahead of the primary at an event Wednesday, according to two people with firsthand knowledge.

He is the highest-ranking person in House leadership to have backed Biden's candidacy to date.

In a live interview with MSNBC's Kasie Hunt on Sunday night, Biden said he was unaware of Clyburn's backing being made official, adding that it would be "the single most valuable endorsement."

Joe will go to SC with MOMENTUM.

February 23, 2020

Some details in NBC's entrance polls with Biden strengths that might loom large in the SC

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/nevada-results

Exaggerated statements that Sanders won in all demographic regions is not quite true, though he did very, very well across the board. We note the following caveats from NBC’s entrance polls.

While sanders fared better among POC in general (Non-whites (35%): Biden 23, Sanders 42), Biden fared a Great deal better among Black voters (11%): Biden 39, Sanders 27.

Biden also beat Sanders by a great deal for voters who were 65 or older (28%): Biden 29, Sanders 11, though in the age group 45+ (63%)the number was about even: Biden 23, Sanders 20.

Biden also edged Sanders for Moderates (34%): Biden 25, Sanders 22 and on issues Biden beat Sanders 29 to 15. On beating Trump there were about even, Sanders (23) edging Biden
(21) by two points.

Other than these provisos, Sanders win is impressive. But some of these exceptions might figure large in SC and some other states.

February 23, 2020

Biden running strong second at 25%. All others below 15%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada?xid=ec_btn_nevada
Well, Pete is right at 15%

February 22, 2020

Only 9%, but here it is. Go Joe!

Hope his numbers go up.