RandySF
RandySF's JournalMitt Romney Chooses New Hampshire for Site of Final Rally Before Election Day
TAMPA — Mitt Romney will hold his final campaign rally in New Hampshire, the very state in which he launched his bid for the White House 16 months ago.
The “Victory Rally” will be held in Manchester, New Hampshire, at 9:30 p.m. on Monday night, Election Day eve. Special guest and campaign-theme song artist Kid Rock will be the special guest.
It is no mistake that New Hampshire was chosen for the final event of Romney’s candidacy. The campaign — as well as the candidate and his family — have a long history with the Granite State.
New Hampshire was the state where Romney launched his presidential campaign that spring day in June 2011, surrounded by hay bales and a picturesque farm house.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/mitt-romney-chooses-new-hampshire-for-site-of-final-rally-before-election-day/
Analyst: Undecideds will likely break evenly for Obama and Romney.
n my earlier post, I modeled the choices of decided voters and then looked to see what that model would predict about the remaining undecided voters. The apparent answer was that these voters will break pretty evenly for Obama and Romney.
My co-author Lynn Vavreck suggested a different approach. In our data for The Gamble, we have interviews from a December 2011 YouGov survey with approximately 44,000 respondents. Then each week from January until Election Day, YouGov reinterviewed a different subset of 1,000 respondents from among these 44,000. In other words, we have a two-wave panel, where the date of the second wave varies.
Lynn’s suggested approach was: take the people who were undecided in December 2011 but decided in a later survey, model their choices, and then see what this predicts for the remaining undecided voters (as in my first post, these are the 195 undecided respondents in the 3 YouGov polls since the first debate). The assumption here is that the remaining undecideds will make up their minds the way the earlier undecideds have—which is more plausible than assuming, as I was, that undecideds make up their minds like the decideds do. (Of course, it’s still an assumption.)
In this case, the answer is much the same: the remaining undecided voters are predicted to split fairly evenly—about 55% for Obama and 45% for Romney. Given the uncertainty in these estimates, I don’t think this implies a definitive Obama “win” among these voters. Ultimately, these models do not suggest either candidate will get a significant advantage from late-breaking undecided voters. The same caveats noted in my earlier post apply here as well.
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/10/30/a-bit-more-on-how-undecided-voters-might-break/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+themonkeycagefeed+%28The+Monkey+Cage%29
Florida County GOP memo: "Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clocks"
Evan Axelbank ?@EvanAxelbank
Worried GOPer leaked memo to me because they wanted to motivate the base, show that loss is possible @MittRomney @OFA_FL @wptv at 11
Evan Axelbank ?@EvanAxelbank
PBC #GOP chair told me boots on ground at polling sites, "For most part not relevant." @OFA_FL @MittRomney
Evan Axelbank ?@EvanAxelbank
http://twitgoo.com/68vgv6 ok folks here's the memo. Directly from GOP campaign adviser to candidate. Story on @wptv at 11
Evan Axelbank ?@EvanAxelbank
@DavidSay2 "Democrat turnout machine (in pbc) is cleaning our clock." @OFA_FL @MittRomney
https://twitter.com/EvanAxelbank
What's more powerful than Mother Nature? Goldman Sachs.
This morning's skyline.
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NV: Republicans have the better day in early voting. (Mobile voting sites?)
So the Republicans crushed the Democrats in conservative oldsterville and rural LDSville, where the early voting sites are Monday and Tuesday. I'd expect the same when tonight's numbers come in, then a return to form once the mobile sites go into Democratic-friendly territory for the rest of the week.
Republicans statewide edged the Democrats in voting on Monday (Some Humboldt County ballots are outstanding, but methinks those won't help the Democrats too much). The overall numbers for Monday -- 21,120 Republicans to 20,189 Democrats. Other voters numbered 9,816.
That does not happen often. We'll see if it happens again or if Democrats re-establish control Tuesday.
http://ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UJB2EX13kj4
Romney Now Claims ‘Federal Government And FEMA’ Should Help In Disaster Relief
After major disasters struck the U.S. last year, Mitt Romney suggested closing FEMA, the emergency response agency, so that states could have greater control over disaster relief. “And if you can go even further and send it back to the private sector, that’s even better,” Romney said during a GOP presidential debate in June 2011.
Those words came back to haunt him, though, as Hurricane Sandy slammed the East Coast and left at least $20 billion in damage in its wake. At first, the Romney campaign vaguely stood by Romney’s plan to get rid of FEMA and put states in charge of disaster relief. And one GOP strategist defended Romney’s idea to dismantle FEMA. But as Politico notes, the Republican presidential candidate’s campaign now insists that Romney would keep FEMA in place:
“Gov. Romney believes that states should be in charge of emergency management in responding to storms and other natural disasters in their jurisdictions,” Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said in a statement. “As the first responders, states are in the best position to aid affected individuals and communities, and to direct resources and assistance to where they are needed most. This includes help from the federal government and FEMA.”
A campaign official added that Romney would not abolish FEMA.
Basically, this is exactly how the system works now. But federal emergency response could be hampered by the GOP ticket’s budget proposals, which stipulate that the government should only disburse disaster relief funding if Congress agreed to offsetting budget cuts elsewhere. And House Republicans have repeatedly attempted to slash spending on disaster preparedness and response to offset cuts in military spending.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/10/30/1110921/romney-flips-fema/
Survey USA has Obama up 48-45 in Ohio.
It's Barack Obama 48%, Mitt Romney 45% in SurveyUSA's penultimate tracking poll of the state of Ohio, unchanged from last week, and barely changed over the past month. 4 times in October SurveyUSA has polled Ohio for WCMH-TV in Columbus, and 4 times Barack Obama has led, though always inside of any survey's margin of possible error. Obama has never polled below 45%, Romney has never polled above 45%.
As evidence of how important each Buckeye vote is, half of Ohio voters tell SurveyUSA they have been contacted by both campaigns for President. Another 18% have been contacted by just the Romney campaign, and another 15% have been contacted by just the Obama campaign. That leaves just 1 out of 6 Ohio voters who say they have not been contacted by either campaign for President.
Voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot vote 56% to 40% for Obama. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election day vote 50% to 41% for Romney. Independents today break 48% to 37% for Romney. Romney leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate would do a better job balancing the federal budget. Obama leads today, as he has in each of the 4 polls, on which candidate is more in touch with the average voter.
In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown edges Republican Josh Mandel 46% to 41%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 3 points, Mandel is down 1 point. Week-on-week, Brown has gained ground among both men and women, young and old.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=11cca51d-06ab-40f5-8ba1-0c8ddc33d855
Cook: Private polling gives Obama clear leads in MI, PA, NV and WI while VA, FL and NC "even money".
Right now, Obama is clearly ahead in 21 states (including the District of Columbia), with a total of 253 electoral votes, 17 short of the 270 needed to win. In addition to the 17 states (including D.C.) that have never been competitive, which total 201 electoral votes, I’ve added four states that have been in play, in varying degrees, where Obama now has a clear lead in credible, private surveys from long-standing professional polling firms calling landlines and cellphones (notwithstanding whatever the robo and Internet polling shows). The states are Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10).
Conversely, Romney is ahead in 23 states with a total of 191 electoral votes, 79 shy of 270. Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, which once looked like they were slipping more into the Romney orbit, have pulled back to essentially even-money contests.
The seven jump ball states with a total of 94 electoral votes are Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13).
To win, Obama needs to win states with 17 (or 18 percent) of the 94 electoral votes in the seven Toss Up states, while Romney needs a whopping 79 (or 84 percent) of the 94 electoral votes.
However, the Obama advantage is not as clear cut as this suggests. In each of these states, Obama and Romney are within 5 percentage points of each other and in most they are within 2 or 3 points of each other.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/chance-of-split-electoral-popular-vote-very-real-20121030
PPP makes an important point about North Carolina
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
All three North Carolina polls in the last week done by NC based organizations- one Dem, one GOP, one college- have shown race within 1 pt
https://twitter.com/ppppolls
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Gender: MaleHometown: Detroit Area, MI
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Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
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