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Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
Number of posts: 35,195

About Me

Partner, father and liberal Democrat. I am a native Michigander living in San Francisco who is a citizen of the world.

Journal Archives

Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/24/20 - 7:00 p.m.

No SOS update today -- I feel like a man without nourishment -- so can't definitively update statewide outlook with rural numbers.

I did get a deeper Clark breakdown and the underlying fundamentals for the Republicans in key down-ticket races are shaky right now. Let me emphasize: A lot of people have voted in Clark County (426,000, including 231,000 by mail and 195,000 in seven days of early voting), at least 40 percent and perhaps closer to half of all who will vote this cycle in Southern Nevada. But there are still 800,000 or so Clark County active voters who have still not voted, so nothing is set in stone.

But, consider these numbers underneath the 67K-ballot firewall the Dems have in Clark:

CD3 (Lee): D+16K, down slightly from last update. 8-point lead. About 40 percent of the vote is in.

CD4 (Clark part) (Horsford): D+22K, slightly up from last update. 17-point lead. Also close to 40 percent in.

SD5 (Woodhouse): D+3.7K, slightly higher than last update. 12-point lead. Again, about 40 percent in.

SD6(Cannizzaro): D+3.7K, slight decrease. 11-point lead. More than 40 percent of the vote is in.

The story is the same in nearly every key Assembly district, too: Republicans are building up sizable margins in early voting, but they are getting overwhelmed by the mail numbers. You can see the gap slowly tightening in the amount of mail vs. the early numbers, but two questions are fundamental to this election:

No. 1 -- Can the Dems keep doing this in the email?

No. 2 -- Will there be enough votes left on Election Day for the GOP to catch up?

Unless there is more crossover going towards the GOP than usual in Nevada, from top to bottom, if both parties get out their voters, the GOP will always lose here. But if they can hold their own in Week 2 of early/mail voting and win Election Day by a lot, they can still win almost any of these races from top to bottom.

I may update later with Clark and Washoe if they report....


MI-03: Independent poll shows Democrats Biden, Scholten in the lead.


Political Polls
Scholten (D) 50% (+8)
Meijer (R) 42%
Biden 52% (+11)
Trump 41%

Strategic National, LV, 10/15-17

GA-07: These Atlanta suburbs show how Georgia has become a 2020 battleground state

In a suburban county northeast of Atlanta, Melissa Clink has been pursuing an ambitious goal.

We’ve been working on normalizing being a Democrat in Forsyth County for quite some time,” she said.

Clink is the chairwoman of the local Democratic Party in a county that has long been a Republican stronghold. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential race by 71.71% and Republican Brian Kemp won the 2018 gubernatorial race by 70.57%.

Neighboring Gwinnett County tells a different story. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the county with 50.20% — the first time Gwinnett chose a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 2018, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams won Gwinnett County by 14 percentage points.

The reliably Republican Forsyth and increasingly Democratic Gwinnett meet in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District. In 2018, the 7th District was the closest House election in the nation. Incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Woodall narrowly fended off Democratic challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux by 0.2% after a recount.


NEW FLIPPABLE: Steven Polgar for NY-AD03

When we invest in our education system, New York sees that investment pay off. We need to improve our public schools and give affordable options for students that want to go to college. While the Excelsior Scholarship was a great first step towards achieving that goal, it needs to be expanded. Many Long Islanders still cannot afford college, and that is because the current program does not account for the cost of living and the number of children in a household.

We need more science and fact-based policies. I support our doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals. Vaccines helped us stop Polio in the United States. I would support free vaccines for everyone to fight the spread of coronavirus to help keep schools and businesses open.

Living on an island, if we don't take immediate action climate change will devastate our community. That is why we need to invest in green energy, the way of the future.

By investing in wind and solar technology, Long Island can become the green energy hub that powers the entire region. We can create high-quality, high-paying union jobs based around manufacturing, repairing, and selling these upcoming technologies.

We also need to fix our local environmental and public health disasters. That means solving the landfill crisis and ensuring our water and air quality are protected.

COVID-19 has devastated our communities. As your Assemblyman, I will make sure our small businesses get the help they so desperately need in the form of tax credits and grants. This will ensure that in the wake of the pandemic, Main Street will not only survive, but thrive.

Unfortunately, this virus is not going away. It is very likely we will still be dealing with its effects long into 2021. That is why I will make sure testing, contact tracing, and vaccines are easily accessible to all New Yorkers, regardless of their financial situation.

We must also ensure that our schools do not see their crucial funding taken away due to budget shortfalls. I will put pressure on our federal delegation and make sure we get help from the federal government. Our children are our future and should not be forced to suffer due to events that are out of their control.

I support the goals of the New York Health Act, which would give healthcare to all New Yorkers and reduce medical costs and prescription drug costs for a majority of residents and businesses throughout Brookhaven. However, this will take time to implement, and our community needs help now. I will put pressure on our federal delegation to take action and ensure we do not get left behind. This includes ensuring New York and the United States can negotiate with drug companies just like so many developed nations around the world, that way we are no longer forced to pay exorbitant amounts for our prescription drugs.

I support the goals of the New York Health Act, which would give healthcare to all New Yorkers and reduce medical costs and prescription drug costs for a majority of residents and businesses throughout Brookhaven. However, this will take time to implement, and our community needs help now. I will put pressure on our federal delegation to take action and ensure we do not get left behind. This includes ensuring New York and the United States can negotiate with drug companies just like so many developed nations around the world, that way we are no longer forced to pay exorbitant amounts for our prescription drugs.

Supports Repealing the SALT Deduction Cap (Federal law).

Supports lowering taxes on anyone making a million dollars a year or less.

Stop tax loopholes for billion-dollar corporations.

Prosecute corrupt politicians that are giving overpriced contracts to their friends, family, or donors.


NEW FLIPPABLE: Lauren Lareau for PA-HD142

My family is from Pennsylvania; I was born in Johnstown, the grand daughter of a Philadelphia police officer who raised his family in East Falls after he served in the Navy, and the daughter of the first person in her family to get a college degree. When it came time to raise my own family, I moved to Langhorne to make a life for myself, and my son, Lucas.

Education is my life's passion: I graduated from the University of Pennsylvania's Graduate School of Education with a Master's Degree in Human Development, ahead of schedule and with honors. I am a proud small business owner of a tutoring company, and have dedicated my career to helping high school students prepare for success in college and beyond. There's no greater thrill in my life than helping adolescents realize their potential.

My commitment to education is one of the major reasons I'm running to be your State Representative. My son was a member of the last graduating class from Oliver Heckman Elementary, and I was appalled to learn that cuts in state funding contributed to its closure, and the consolidation that recently took place in the Neshaminy School District. We can't afford to put off paying for our children's education-- our future is riding on it!

Prior to starting my tutoring business, and before the Affordable Care Act was passed, I was a Cancer Information Specialist for the National Cancer Institute. I spoke to thousands of callers who had questions about different types of cancer, and where they could get treatment. Ninety percent of our callers also needed help paying for treatment, because so many people were being dropped from their insurance, or denied treatment claims by their insurance company, or couldn’t afford the premiums because of a pre-existing condition. We can’t afford to go back to that, and I will do everything I can to make sure we keep premiums low and healthcare affordable.

I'm also committed to protecting the environment, and I was shocked to learn that Pennsylvania is the only state in the country that doesn't have an extraction tax, while 90% of what gas companies extract is sold out of state. We are destroying our land for this resource, without compensation, while gas companies make a fortune. We need an extraction tax, and I will fight with my fellow Democrats to achieve this goal. We can use the proceeds to invest in renewable energy, so we can finally begin the transition to a green energy economy, with cleaner air and water for our community.

Furthermore, as a small business owner, I know how important small businesses are to the local economy. I will work tirelessly to keep taxes low, and ensure that entrepreneurs have the necessary investment and guidance through the municipal bureaucracy to become successful businesses that hire members of our community.

My core values are determination, character, and commitment. If those sound like the things you want from your state rep then vote for me, Lauren Lareau.

It's been too long since Pennsylvania's 142nd House District had representation that shared our core values, and fought for the things that truly matter to us.


NEW FLIPPALE: Michael Doyle Jr. for PA-HD170

I am running for the 170th Legislative District because we need to see real progressive change in the State Legislature. We need real solutions to the issues facing our community today. From quality of life issues like the opioid epidemic to real police reform that includes solutions to our real mental health epidemic that is on the rise in our city, I am running because our team can bring forth real change that benefits everyone of us in the community. Not just special interests.


TX-23: Republican candidate Tony Gonzales' outreach to men.


AR-02: I LOVE this old fashioned campaign sign.



In the years after a troubling number of suicides rocked his jail, Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls did little to remedy the long-standing problems at his facility. Instead, he posted angry rants about President Trump on Facebook and faced accusations of racially profiling Latinx drivers. Nehls, 52, has served as the sheriff of the Texas county—a suburb of Houston home to more than 800,000 people—since 2012.

In 2017, Nehls took to Facebook to blast the “offensive display” of a local woman named Karen Fonseca who had a sign on her family’s truck reading “Fuck Donald Trump and fuck you for voting for him.” Nehls then threatened to charge Karen and her husband with disorderly conduct. Nehls later deleted the Facebook post and backed off the threats of charges after the ACLU of Texas wrote in a Facebook post “Sheriff Troy E. Nehls, Constitutional Law 101: You can’t ban speech just because it has ‘f@ck’ in it.”

This year, Nehls used Facebook to attack racial justice protesters. “God bless President Trump for taking action to reinstate law and order and God bless all our service members and law enforcement officers out on the streets tonight,” Nehls wrote in a June 1 Facebook post in which he cheered on the president’s decision to send federal agents into cities to crack down on Black Lives Matter protests.

Now, Nehls is seeking the Congressional seat in Texas’s 22nd District, which has, in years past (and through a few re-districtings), been represented by Ron Paul, Tom DeLay, and Pete Olson, the retiring incumbent. The district, which includes parts of Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Harris counties, has been staunchly Republican historically, but is considered very competitive this year.

Even if Nehls is elected to Congress, his family may maintain its hold on the sheriff’s office. Nehls’ twin brother Trever Nehls has secured the Republican nomination to be the next sheriff of Fort Bend County.

Advocates for criminal legal reform are concerned that the brothers could end up controlling Fort Bend politics.


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