RandySF
RandySF's JournalNate Silver is beginning to hedge.
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: 63 percent.
Republicans’ odds have never been higher than 66 percent — a figure they reached late last week — or lower than 53 percent. The informal model updates we published going as far back as March also had Republicans as 55 or 60 percent favorites.
To an extent, this stability reflects the noise-reducing features of the FiveThirtyEight model. Our program examines the polls for signs of statistical bias, and weighs them more heavily when they have larger sample sizes, better methodologies and better track records — which can reduce the impact of outliers. The FiveThirtyEight model is also fairly conservative in estimating the uncertainty associated with each race and the disposition of the Senate overall. At times in the past, the polls in most swing states have been biased in the same direction (either toward Democrats or Republicans).
But this degree of stability is unusual. In pretty much every election we’ve covered, the polls have more clearly broken toward one or another party by this point.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-the-republican-advantage-is-consistent-but-not-decisive/
U.S. Marines end Afghan operations, prepare to come home
CAMP LEATHERNECK, Afghanistan - In a ceremony Sunday morning in dusty desert sunlight, U.S. Marines and British combat troops officially marked the end of their operations in Afghanistan, transferring Camps Leatherneck and Bastion to Afghan control. As national anthems from the three countries played, service members from all three countries stood at attention. The Marine flags were ceremoniously furled and cased, in recognition of the end of mission.
"This transfer is a sign of progress," said Brigadier Gen. Daniel D. Yoo, Commander of Regional Command South West. "It's not about the coalition, it's really about the Afghans and what they've achieved over the last 13 years. What they have done here is truly significant."
Every single combat Marine and British troop will soon board planes to head home - the exact date has been withheld for security reasons. It's a milestone in Helmand, the deadliest province for coalition forces throughout the war, with more than 940 troops killed, including 360 Marines. Five have died this year.
"When you think about the cost (of this war) it's been expensive, and I'm not talking about the monetary costs," said Yoo. A hallway in the command post here had been lined with photos of the Marines who died here. Those pictures have since been packed up.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-marines-end-afghanistan-operations-prepare-to-come-home/
Patterns seen in two cases of unlawful donations to SF mayor’s 2011 campaign
Two allegations of donors laundering campaign contributions that went to Mayor Ed Lee bear stark similarities.
The most recent case involves a rental property firm and its director. They were fined $40,000 by the state's Fair Political Practices Commission last week, the maximum penalty allowed, for laundering a combined $4,000 into both Lee's and Phil Ting's 2011 mayoral campaigns.
That fine against Archway Property Services LLC and its director, Andrew Hawkins Cohen, come on the heels of a recent lawsuit alleging Lee's campaign accepted $20,000 from an FBI agent, a case that is ongoing.
"These people lied to the campaign, perjured themselves, and the mayor is pleased that they are being held accountable," mayoral spokeswoman Christine Falvey told The San Francisco Examiner. "He has called for full accountability since this issue came to light."
http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/patterns-seen-in-two-cases-of-unlawful-donations-to-sf-mayors-2011-campaign/Content?oid=2909960
San Francisco tour guide goes on racist rant targeting Chinatown
SAN FRANCISCO — A San Francisco tour bus guide went on a bizarre racist tirade on her last day on the job that was captured on cell phone video and later posted to YouTube.
In her rant she insulted people in Chinatown. In part of the rant the tour guide stated, "When you come to America you gotta assimilate a little bit, OK? And here in America we don't eat turtles and frogs." People on the bus could be heard clapping.
During the rant the tour guide took swigs from a brown bottle, presumably alcohol. She bashed just about everything in Chinatown from its noise, to its laundry and even its dragons.
The reaction KTVU received about her tirade was mixed. KTVU found one woman who agreed with the rant, while another said the tour guide's musings were out of line and ignorant.
"It's definitely hurtful. I'm of Filipino Asian descent and don't tolerate ignorance really and for people in a bus to clap for something like that - that's really unbelievable," said Nesha Hill of San Francisco.
The supervisor of the district, David Chui, said he wanted an apology. He wanted the tourist bus company to come forward and the tour guide as well.
http://www.ktvu.com/news/news/local/san-francisco-tour-guide-gives-racist-rant-targeti/nhqZp/
CHP officers suspected of sharing nude photos of arrested women.
California Highway Patrol officers have been sharing explicit photos of female suspects for years as part of a “game,” an officer implicated in the scandal told investigators, court records show.
CHP Officer Sean Harrington, 35, of Martinez, acknowledged to Contra Costa County prosecutors that he had forwarded photos from the cell phone of a woman he had arrested in a DUI case, sent them to his own phone and had shared them with at least two other CHP officers, according to a search warrant filed in Superior Court.
Harrington said he had done the same thing to at least six other female arrestees in the past several years, authorities said. After taking arrestees’ photos, officers would share pictures with one another and exchange comments about each woman’s looks, Harrington told district attorney inspectors. Harrington said he first learned of the practice while working for the CHP in Los Angeles, investigators said.
“Harrington described this scheme as a game,” Darryl Holcombe, a senior inspector wrote in a search warrant affidavit.
http://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/Disturbing-texts-in-CHP-officers-nude-photo-5846327.php
Confession: I once voted for a Republican.
Back in Michigan I voted a Republican district judge in suburban Detroit. Judicial elections in Michigan are non-partisan but he was appointed by a GOP governor. Solid, fair and had no ambitions beyond deciding traffic tickets and other petty offenses. So yeah, I admit that I voted for the guy.
PA-Gov: President Obama to Campaign with Tom Wolf on Nov. 2
The President is coming to the Keystone State.
Yesterday, the White House announced that President Obama will hold a “campaign event for Tom Wolf and other Pennsylvania Democrats” next Sunday, November 2nd.
The event appears to be the last scheduled campaign stop for the President before Election Day. The goal is likely to drive up turnout in the state’s largest city, Philadelphia, which has a heavy concentration of Democratic and black voters.
Pres. Obama has so far limited his campaigning to blue states and gubernatorial races. He has already appeared in Illinois and Maryland. The President is also planning to stump for Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Wisconsin and Maine.
http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gov-president-obama-to-campaign-with-tom-wolf-on-nov-2/61325/
GOP candidate jokes about killing his dog (Yes, he really killed his dog).
The Illinois congressional candidate who once killed a beagle that bit his daughter is not happy the story resurfaced after all these years, but he was willing to crack a joke about it in an interview.
State Rep. Mike Bost (R), who has been dubbed "Mad Mike" by Democrats who want to stop him from unseating Rep. Bill Enyart (D-Ill.), has become famous for his angry rants on the state House floor that have gone viral on YouTube.
But he acquired a new layer of infamy after HuffPost reported on his 1986 shooting of a 10-year-old beagle named Rusty. The dog bit Bost's 4-year-old daughter in the face while she was chasing it, according to court records. She needed 24 stitches. Unsatisfied with officials' response, Bost got his gun, went to the pen where Rusty was locked up, and shot the dog, scaring neighbors, according to records.
Bost admitted to being unhappy about the shooting story to a Politico reporter, saying, “It brings back memories I don’t really like. No one wants to go kill an animal.”
But then, when his own labradoodle ran in front of his car, with Politico's Alex Isenstadt in the passenger seat, he dropped a one-liner:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/24/mike-bost-dog-killing_n_6044114.html
My voting ordeal in California
I had to walk all the way down the stairs to the lobby, open the mailbox, pull my ballot out and walk back up stairs. THEN I had to sit down, and fill it out all while avoiding paper cuts. THEN stuff all four pages into another envelope, sign it and take it to the mailbox down the street. Good thing I didn't need postage or I wouldn't know what to do. Voting is such hard work in CA.
Rick Scott sends white supporters to harass black voters
What began Saturday afternoon in Fort Lauderdale as an early voting rally for Charlie Crist turned into a shouting match, featuring the former governor’s supporters squaring off against those backing his opponent Rick Scott.
Crist’s bus pulled into the parking lot of the African-American Research Library and Cultural Center at about noon Saturday and was greeted by a crowd of supporters, mostly black Democrats. Also on hand were Scott supporters, mostly white, carrying “shame on you” signs. Scott’s group included one person barking into a megaphone.
Crist did not step out of the bus to address the crowd. Instead, he waved and smiled to supporters from the bus entrance before quickly departing the library parking lot.
When Republican Party of Florida chairwoman Leslie Dougher held a media gaggle to bash Crist, she was drowned out by the din of pro-Crist supporters.
Later, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera gathered at an adjacent parking area farther from the library and echoed Dougher’s attacks against Crist.
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/10/crist-rally-turns-into-shouting-match-at-african-american-library-in-fort-lauderdale.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#storylink=cpy
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Gender: MaleHometown: Detroit Area, MI
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Current location: San Francisco, CA
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