White House official calls PA governor "weak" for not greeting Trump

FL-18: Brian Mast moves to Lean Republican

Republicans were convinced Mast was pulling away from Democrat Lauren Baer in September, but the political environment in Florida has deteriorated for the GOP as Democrat Andrew Gillum has taken a lead in the race for governor. There's a sizable African-American community in St. Lucie County, and the NRCC is concerned enough that it parachuted in with ads last week.

Mast, an Afghan War veteran who lost both legs in an IED blast, has struck a moderate tone by writing an op-ed in favor of an assault weapons ban after the Parkland massacre and talking about fighting toxic algae. And Baer's elite degrees and role at the Clinton-run State Department aren't ideal for a district President Trump carried by nine points. But both parties now view the race as competitive.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/one-week-out-six-rating-changes



LAUREN BAER







https://laurenbaerforcongress.com

IA-04: Steve King moves to Lean Republican

King's tweets that “we can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies" and his travels to meet with far-right European figures have made him a pariah in the House and enraged Democrats. It's less clear his views have damaged his political standing back home in northwest Iowa, where King has routinely won easily and President Trump took 60 percent in 2016.

However, a poll this week by Democratic firm Change Research found King leading by just 45 percent to 44 percent against his first credible challenger in six years, former minor league baseball pitcher J.D. Scholten. Even in an R+11 seat, the poll makes some sense because Scholten and an anti-King group, American Values PAC, have been on the airwaves totally unanswered the past two weeks.

Scholten has outraised King $1.7 million to $741,000 this cycle in large part thanks to disgusted national donors who view King as a racist. But in his ads, Scholten attacks King as AWOL from the district rather than criticizing the incumbent's views on western civilization. Instead, it's American Values PAC that's savaging King for "flying around Europe meeting with neo-Nazis."

Unlike in 2012, when King ran a vigorous campaign to beat former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, King isn't mounting a serious defense. Of the $782,000 King has spent this cycle, most has been spent on fundraising or salaries. With a week to go, he's yet to air an ad. And amid tariffs, the political environment in Iowa is much more challenging for the GOP than it was in 2016.

Scholten grew up in Sioux City (where his father coached the Morningside College baseball team), attended the University of Nebraska and pitched for the semi-pro Sioux City Explorers before playing in Europe. His recent time as a paralegal in Seattle and 2016 vote for Hillary Clinton are big liabilities, but it's unclear King has the resources to air them, and few seem willing to bail King out.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/one-week-out-six-rating-changes



J.D. SCHOLTEN







https://www.scholten4iowa.com

PA-11: Justice Democrat Jess King within 4 points of incumbent Lloyd Smucker

MI-GOV: Schuette pulls most of his ads from the air.

MT-AL: Williams is tied with Gianforte

48% - 48%


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf



KATHLEEN WILLIAMS






https://kathleenformontana.com

CA-50: Hunter leads by only 3 points

1 week till ballots are counted in California's 50th Congressional District, with many votes already cast, incumbent Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter clings to a 3-point lead over Democratic challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego and the Union Tribune newspaper.

At this hour, it's Hunter 48%, Campa-Najjar 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 08/27/18 --- shortly after Hunter was indicted for misuse of campaign funds --- Hunter is down 1 point, Campa-Najjar is up 6 points. Hunter had led by 8, now 3.

* Of those voting Republican, 55% say they are voting "for Hunter"; 39% are voting "against Campa-Najjar."
* Of those voting Republican, 54% say they do so "enthusiastically"; 42% do so "with reservations."
* Of those voting Democrat, 55% say they are voting "for Campa-Najjar"; 43% are voting "against Hunter."
* Of those voting Democrat, 80% say they do so "enthusiastically"; just 16% do so "with reservations."

* Just 26% of voters have a favorable opinion of Hunter, compared with 49% who have an unfavorable opinion.
* 37% have a favorable opinion of Campa-Najjar, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion.

* 53% of likely voters say that based on what they know so far, Hunter broke the law.
* Just 19% of likely voters say that based on what they know so far, Hunter did not break the law.
* Just 24% of voters find Hunter's explanation, that his wife is to blame, believable.
* 57% of voters say Hunter's claim that his wife is responsible for all wrongdoing is unbelievable.

If Hunter wins re-election, which he well may, it will be because men (among whom Hunter leads by 10 points), evangelicals (among whom Hunter leads by 57 points), voters in military households (among whom Hunter leads by 28 points), voters who approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President (among whom Hunter leads by 78 points), affluent voters (among whom Hunter leads by 15 points), rural voters (among whom Hunter leads by 26 points), voters focused on immigration (among whom Hunter leads by 80 points), and voters focused on taxes (among whom Hunter leads by 50 points) turn out in large numbers.

If Campa-Najjar stuns with a political upset, it will be because suburban women (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 12 points), lower-income voters (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 13 points), voters who disapprove of President Trump (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 79 points), voters focused on corruption (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 56 points), voters focused on health care (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 61 points), and voters focused on the Presidency (among whom Campa-Najjar leads by 27 points), turn out in large numbers.

Of those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Hunter leads by a nominal 1 percentage point, 49% to 48%. Of those voters who say they have not yet marked a ballot but who promise to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline, Hunter leads by 5 points, 47% to 42%.

Hunter holds 82% of the Republican base; 11% cross-over and vote Democratic. Campa-Najjar holds 88% of the Democratic base; 9% cross-over and vote Republican. Independents favor Campa-Najjar by 13 points. Moderates favor Campa-Najjar by 13 points. Of those who voted for Hunter in 2016, before he and his wife Margaret were charged with spending $250,000 of campaign funds to pay for personal expenses, 81% stick with Hunter in 2018.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6eb82edf-81cd-4528-ae67-3d8371e94eaf



AMMAR CAMPA-NAIJAR







http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6eb82edf-81cd-4528-ae67-3d8371e94eaf

MI-GOV: Detroit's latest abandoned property: Bill Schuette's campaign office

The door is locked — gated, in fact. Chairs are empty. Cookies have been left uneaten. Poorly drawn poster boards festoon the otherwise barren walls. A message of hope is draped over a shuttered storefront. Next door is an overgrown, barricaded children's playscape.

A stroll past Republican candidate for governor Bill Schuette's Detroit campaign office just a week before the midterm election feels more like a horror film scene than bustling headquarters. In fact, it's downright spooky.

Located in Detroit's North End neighborhood at 9033 Woodward Ave., the neglected office for the Schuette campaign (or "Shoe-Tee" as a sign in the headquarters' window informs) has been far from a torrent of political activity. It came to our attention thanks to political advocate Graham Davis, who has been using Twitter to unveil perhaps one of the most intriguing subplots of the Michigan gubernatorial race yet.

Davis first pointed out the curiously dormant and inaccessible headquarters in a Tweet last Wednesday, which has since spurred several followup videos. Each one is absent of a single volunteer.

"Totally empty yet again," Davis says on his Saturday visit. "A perfect day for volunteering. But no one is here."



https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2018/10/29/detroits-latest-abandoned-property-bill-schuettes-campaign-office



GRETECHEN WHITMER








https://www.gretchenwhitmer.com

SC-01: Republicans suddenly playing defense in usually safe SC GOP House district

WASHINGTON - Steve Stivers, the head of the House GOP’s campaign operation, told reporters on Sept. 25, “I don’t expect we’ll have to spend any money” to get Katie Arrington elected.

Just over one month later — and one week before the midterms — Republicans are about to pour $87,000 into the race, hoping to give their 1st District congressional candidate a crucial boost.

On Monday, the National Republican Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm announced it would spend that sum on television advertising for Arrington between Oct. 30 and Nov. 6, Election Day.

The state representative from Summerville is running against Democrat Joe Cunningham for a seat left open by Republican Rep. Mark Sanford, who Arrington bested in the primary.

Though the NRCC, House Republicans’ main fundraising apparatus, and its independent expenditure department are separate entities, Stivers, an Ohio congressman, would be aware of major spending decisions.

Maddie Anderson, an NRCC spokeswoman, said there was no cause for alarm.


https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article220797500.html#storylink=cpy



JOE CUNNINGHAM







https://www.joecunninghamforcongress.com

ME-GOV: Caron drops out of Maine gov. race, endorses Janet Mills

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — Independent entrepreneur Alan Caron made good on his promise Monday to drop out of the Maine governor’s race if he didn’t think he could win.

Caron announced he’s abandoning his bid for governor — and he’s endorsing Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills for governor, who joined him at a news conference.

Caron has decried partisanship and the reliance on more taxpayer spending alone to solve Maine’s pressing issues. But he said independents only have a chance when major party candidates falter, said Caron, who said Mills would bring people together to improve the economy and health care.

“I’m not a person that quits things easily,” Caron said.

Also in the race are independent state Treasurer Terry Hayes and Republican businessman Shawn Moody, whose campaign adviser called Caron a “longtime Democratic party activist and commentator.”

Critics who feared Caron or Hayes simply siphon votes away from other candidates, making them spoilers, have been on the attack.



http://www.fosters.com/news/20181029/caron-drops-out-of-maine-gov-race-endorses-janet-mills



JANET MILLS







https://www.janetmills.com