RandySF
RandySF's JournalOH:Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties claw their way back to 2012 levels.
OH: Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to surge back to '12 levels. Chart shows share of EV/AV relative to '12 final share from 10/20 to 11/2.
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/794146635240632320
Hillary draws 15,000 people to Tempe, AZ rally.
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?@kylegriffin1 Kyle Griffin Retweeted Hillary for Arizona
Clinton campaign, citing the fire marshal, says 15,000 are at HRC's rally in Tempe, AZ.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794016369062903809
Slate panel of Trump-averse Republican voters on who they have finally decided to vote for.
Hillary: 5
Trump: 3
Others: 4
Undecided: 1
Unscientific, but interesting nonetheless.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/gop_voters_who_don_t_like_trump_reveal_their_votes.html
The FBI strikes again.
“Secret recordings of a suspect talking about the Clinton Foundation fueled an internal battle between FBI agents who wanted to pursue the case and corruption prosecutors who viewed the statements as worthless hearsay,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Agents, using informants and recordings from unrelated corruption investigations, thought they had found enough material to merit aggressively pursuing the investigation into the foundation that started in summer 2015 based on claims made in a book by a conservative author called Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich.“
https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/02/secret-recordings-fueled-fbi-feud-clinton-probe/#disqus_thread
If you need a sanity break, Dr. Strange opens this weekend
Big departure from standard Marvel movies and the critics love it. And yes, I chose this forum because we need the pause.
Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren't always what they seem
Most telephone polls use independent samples, so the respondents in one week’s poll are different from those in another week’s. This makes it impossible to distinguish change in individual vote intentions from changes in sample composition from week to week. It is possible that five percent of the electorate switched from Clinton to Trump over the past week (decreasing Clinton’s lead by 10 points). But it’s also possible that nobody switched and apparent swings are due to differences in sample composition.
YouGov draws its samples from a large panel of respondents. In most of our polls, there is little overlap from one sample to another. However, sometimes the same respondents are recontacted to see whether their opinions have changed. For example, after the first presidential debate in September, we reinterviewed 2,132 people who had told us their vote intentions a month before. 95 percent of the September Clinton supporters said they intended to vote for her. None of them said they intended to vote for Donald Trump, but five percent said they were now undecided, would vote for a third party candidate, or would not vote. Of the Trump supporters, only 91 percent said they were still planning on voting for Trump. Five percent moved to undecided, one percent to Clinton, and the rest to third party candidates or not voting. The net effect was to increase Clinton’s lead by almost four points. That was real change, though significantly less that the ten point change to Clinton’s lead seen in some polls.
Other events, however, have not had any detectable impact on voting intentions. We did not see any shifts after the release of the Access Hollywood video, the second or third presidential debates, or the reopening of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails. When the same people were reinterviewed, almost all said they were supporting the same candidate they had told us they were supporting in prior interviews. The small number who did change their voting intentions shifted about evenly toward Clinton and Trump so the net real change was close to zero.
Although we didn’t find much vote switching, we did notice a different type of change: the willingness of Clinton and Trump supporters to participate in our polls varied by a significant amount depending upon what was happening at the time of the poll: when things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls. For example, after the release of the Access Hollywood video, Trump supporters were four percent less likely than Clinton supporters to participate in our poll. The same phenomenon occurred this weekend for Clinton supporters after the announcement of the FBI investigation: Clinton supporters responded at a three percent lower rate than Trump supporters (who could finally take a survey about a subject they liked).
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There
Nevada is fairly unusual among states that allow early voting because it releases data on the party registration of early voters. Most people in the state vote early, and it hasn’t changed its early voting rules, giving us the 2012 election as a baseline. That means we can know if one party is voting in large numbers while at the same time understanding whether that large lead is going to hold through Election Day. Of course, it’s always possible that the early vote can mislead, so some caution is warranted.
Still, many more Democrats than Republicans have voted in early balloting. Through early Tuesday, 43 percent of early and absentee votes have been cast by registered Democrats and just 37 percent have been cast by registered Republicans. Democrats have a lead in the number of raw votes of greater than 30,000 out of more than 500,000 votes cast, which is about 50 percent of all votes cast in the 2012 presidential election.
Indeed, the pattern in early voting looks pretty much the same as in 20121. After one week of early voting in 2012, Democrats made up 45 percent of early voters and Republicans made up 37 percent. Those numbers held through the second week of early voting and into the general election. Democrats had a 7-point edge after early voting that year and a 6-point edge after all the votes were counted. The fact that the registration numbers didn’t change very much after early voting shouldn’t be surprising, because absentee and early voters made up about 70 percent of all ballots cast.
The similarity to 2012 in the early numbers in Nevada is good news for Clinton. Obama won the state by 7 points (or about the Democratic edge in the registration of those who voted). Some polls have given Clinton the same-size lead in the past month, but the current FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast puts her advantage at between 1 and 2 percentage points in Nevada. If Trump were to lose Nevada, the polls-only model gives him just a 9 percent chance of winning the election. It’s a near must-win for him, as most swing states are.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/
FBI never asked top aides for devices used while Clinton was secretary of state
The FBI never asked Hillary Clinton's top aides to turn over all the computers and smartphones they used while Clinton was secretary of state, an omission that is now triggering questions from Republican lawmakers.
While the FBI made a concerted effort to obtain all the computers that were used as Clinton's private server and ultimately asked two of Clinton's lawyers for laptops used to review her email messages, investigators never requested or demanded all equipment her top staffers used for work purposes during her four years at State, a source familiar with the investigation told POLITICO.
"No one was asked for devices by the FBI," said the source, who requested anonymity.
The decision left the FBI at least partially dependent on the aides' attorneys' decisions about which messages were work-related and therefore might have contained classified information the agents were looking for. Those messages were turned over to State in response to its request last year.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/fbi-hillary-clinton-devices-230592#ixzz4Op86CW1j
Nephew: George W. Bush may vote for Clinton
George P. Bush said Tuesday that his uncle, former President George W. Bush, may join his grandfather George H.W. Bush in casting his ballots for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to the Associated Press.
The Texas land commissioner made the comments while addressing a small Republican rally in San Marcos, Texas, on Tuesday night, saying that both former presidents in the family may "potentially" vote for the Democratic presidential ticket come Election Day.
Later asked to clarify his comments by the AP, George P. Bush said that he was just "speculating" and couldn't say with certainty how they'd vote.
POLITICO reported in September that George H.W. Bush plans to vote for Clinton over Trump on Nov. 8, according to the member of another prominent political family, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/george-bush-hillary-clinton-230620#ixzz4Op2eTAUV
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Gender: MaleHometown: Detroit Area, MI
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Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
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