March 16, 2016

The only votes left to count in MO are St. Louis, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

Could be good news for Hillary.

March 16, 2016

I'm calling Missouri for Trump

it's so close that I don't know what it means in terms of delegates.

March 16, 2016

I'm calling Illinois for Hillary

March 16, 2016

Florida Man loses to Bad Combover

Just called by the networks.

March 15, 2016

I'm calling FL for Tr(D)umpster

22% already in. I don't see Rubio making up the difference.

March 15, 2016

Missouri DU'er. Can you tell us what's going on?

There's been very little polling for either party primary. I have an idea where candidates will do well. I think Hillary and Trump will do well in St. Louis, Kansas City. Trump and Hillary should do well in the Ozarks and Cruz and Sanders will win everywhere else. Is this your sense of the race? Where am I off?

March 15, 2016

FINAL March 15 predictions.

My final March 15 primary predicitons


Florida:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)

Illinois:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)

Missouri:
Sanders/Clinton Tie (D) (In terms of delegates. Raw vote could go either way)
Cruz (R) (But close)

North Carolina:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)

Ohio:
Sanders (D) (Close)
Trump (R) (Previously Kasich)


The states that keep us up late will be Missouri for Dems and Ohio for the Republicans.

March 14, 2016

PPP Poll: Trump leads in North Carolina. Cruz distant second.

Way back on July 8th PPP released a North Carolina poll that was the first survey to find Donald Trump leading the Republican race anywhere in the country. 8 months later our final poll of the GOP race finds Trump primed to book end that first poll with a victory in the Tar Heel State. Trump is polling at 44% to 33% for Ted Cruz, 11% for John Kasich, and 7% for Marco Rubio.

Compared to a month ago Trump's support is up 15 points and Cruz's is up 14 points. Kasich's remained in place, and Rubio has seen his support collapse 9 points. Trump appears to already be building up a lead among early voters- he's at 46% to 38% for Cruz, 11% for Kasich, and 4% for Rubio. Among those planning to vote on election day Trump gets 43% to 32% for Cruz, 11% for Kasich, and 8% for Rubio.

If there's a path to #NeverTrump in North Carolina it's Kasich and Rubio voters uniting around Cruz. Trump's lead over Cruz declines to 49/43 when the two are matched head to head because Rubio voters overwhelmingly move to Cruz in that scenario (70/20) and Kasich voters move to Cruz as well, although by a pretty narrow 39/34 margin.

One big thing Trump has going for him is that he has the most committed supporters. 89% of Trump voters say they'll definitely cast their ballots for him, compared to 84% of Cruz, 68% of Rubio, and 65% of Kasich supporters who say the same for their candidate. Cruz needs to hope those Rubio and Kasich voters open to changing their minds gravitate toward him if he's going to have a chance to win the state.

Interestingly Kasich is now the most broadly popular candidate in North Carolina, with a 60/23 favorability rating. Trump's next at 56/38, followed by Cruz at 51/35, and continuing the recent trend Rubio is now under water in his image with North Carolina Republicans as just 39% see him favorably to 48% who have a negative opinion.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-still-leads-nc-bond-likely-to-pass.html

March 14, 2016

This is really happening, isn't it?

Through all of 2015, I assumed Trump was such a joke that he would drop out by Summer. After that, I assumed primary voters would end their flirtation and choose a "serious" candidate from their party. Every day before New Hampshire, South Carolina, Super Tuesday, Super Saturday and Michigan, I waiting for him to implode and voters to suddenly rush to someone else. Even now, pay of me thinks where no way he's going to win Florida. But he's really going to do it, isn't he? Is this how people felt when Ronald Reagan kept winning? I still think something will happen between now and Cleveland, but I don't know how they pull it off without blood on the floor.

He'll implode eventually, right?

March 14, 2016

My revised March 15 primary predicitons

Florida:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R) (Previously Rubio)

Illinois:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)

Missouri:
Sanders/Clinton Tie (D) (In terms of delegates. Raw vote could go either way)
Cruz (R)

North Carolina:
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)

Ohio:
Sanders (D) (Close)
Katich (R)


Rubio will drop out of the race, and the Republican establishment will latch onto Kasich but Cruz will continue to make the case that he's earned the right to be the alternative to Trump. This will continue at least until next week when Trump wins Arizona.and Cruz wins Utah.