CO-03: U.S. House race between Boebert and Mitsch Bush in western Colorado is tied

A closely watched congressional contest in western and southern Colorado is tied, according to a poll conducted in early August and released Thursday.

The survey of 400 likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District found Diane Mitsch Bush, a Democrat, with 43% support and Lauren Boebert, a Republican, with 42%. Four percent of voters were undecided and three other candidates split the remaining 11%.

The massive 3rd District, which spans all of the Western Slope, along with southern Colorado and Pueblo, hasn’t elected a Democrat in a dozen years. Mitsch Bush lost by eight points there to Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Cortez, in 2018.

But Boebert’s shocking primary win over Tipton on June 30 has placed the race in the crosshairs of national Democratic groups, which see an opportunity to flip the seat, and has Republicans on the defensive. A poll showing a tied race is certain to jolt national onlookers and could lead to an increase in outside spending.

Thursday’s poll was conducted by GQR, which has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight and has a record of leaning slightly Democratic. It was sponsored by the Mitsch Bush campaign, was conducted from Aug. 3-6 and has a margin of error of about 5%. It is the first poll released publicly in the 3rd District race.

More surprising than the poll’s congressional race results is that it found a tie in the presidential race among likely district voters as well, with President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden at 48% support each. The 3rd District favored Trump by a 12-point margin in 2016.



https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/13/3rd-congressional-district-colorado-boebert-mitsch-bush/

FL-15: New poll shows incumbent Ross Spano in danger of being upset Tuesday

Polling shows Rep. Ross Spano in a statistical tie with Republican primary challenger Scott Franklin and facing a potential upset.

A St. Pete Polls survey of likely Republican voters found if the primary were held today, 42% would vote Spano while 41% pick Franklin. The 1-percentage-point margin falls well with the poll’s 4% margin of error.

Worse, among those who say they have already voted, Franklin leads with 46% to Spano’s 41%. That leaves the incumbent counting on remaining supporters getting around to casting their ballot soon and hoping they don’t change their mind.

The poll results show the primary on Tuesday may just bring to a close a short and controversial reign for Spano. The Dover Republican remains under federal investigation for breaking campaign finance laws in 2018. Spano admitted to using personal loans to finance his initial run for Congress.

Survey results include responses from 594 voters who expect to participate in the GOP primary. More than 37% of respondents have already cast their ballots. The poll was conducted on Wednesday, less than a week before the primary concludes.


https://floridapolitics.com/archives/357579-new-poll-shows-incumbent-ross-spano-in-danger-of-being-upset

Bonus Tweet of the Day

GA-14: Atlanta company files defamation suit against candidate Greene

An Atlanta-based mortgage provider has filed a lawsuit against congressional candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene, saying she defamed the company by spreading misinformation about the firing of an employee.

The lawsuit filed in Fulton County also names Melissa Rolfe, an ex-employee of Equity Prime Mortgage, as a defendant. Her stepson, Garrett Rolfe, was charged in the officer-involved shooting of Rayshard Brooks in June. Both Greene and Melissa Rolfe have claimed that she was fired from Equity after her stepson was charged, but Equity’s attorneys said that was not the case.

The home lender last week asked Greene to retract and apologize for comments on social media that called Rolfe’s termination politically motivated. When that didn’t happen, the company moved forward with its defamation suit.

“We were targeted with death threats, hate mail, and a boycott because of a national media firestorm based on statements by Marjorie Greene’s campaign and Melissa Rolfe,” Equity President and CEO Eddy Perez said in a statement. “We are committed to setting the record straight and defending our good name.”


https://www.ajc.com/politics/atlanta-company-files-defamation-suit-against-candidate-greene-melissa-rolfe/H32QBN6EUJCAZM53DKTKJQQVZA/

Primary sets up November battle for control of Georgia's Legislature

Ballots were still being counted Wednesday in some primary races, but battle lines have been drawn for the November election as Democrats fight to take control of the Georgia House.

Republican groups in Georgia and nationwide have set their sights on taking down House Minority Leader Bob Trammell, who beat challenger Frederick Manley in the primary.

Trammell is one of the Legislature’s few remaining rural Democrats, and the Republican State Leadership Committee — a national group that works to elect Republicans across the country — put a target on his Luthersville-based district that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential contest. The GOP group is pushing retired U.S. Army Capt. David Jenkins, who defeated Gene King in Tuesday’s Republican primary, and it said it has spent more than $20,000 to flip House District 132 — with plans to invest millions more in the state.

“It’s no surprise that the lobbyists and special interests in Washington are coming after me,” Trammell said. “I also think it’s a reflection of the reality that Georgia is a battleground state. And they understand that the state is definitely in play and that the Statehouse is in play in November.”




https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/primary-sets-november-battle-for-control-georgia-legislature/AiX29OorrmRVsCINumZUnN/

Fani Willis unseats 6-term Fulton County (GA) DA Paul Howard

Fani Willis declared victory Tuesday night in her bid for Fulton County District Attorney, soundly defeating her former boss, Paul Howard..

“Y’all we made herstory,” said Willis, who is poised to become the first woman to serve as Fulton’s first DA. “You have my word, during my tenure as district attorney in Fulton County, we will be a beacon for justice and ethics in Georgia and across the nation.”

Howard, seeking his seventh term in office, conceded defeat shortly before 11 p.m., telling reporters, “I came in with pride and I’m leaving with pride.”

With nearly all precincts reporting, Willis dominated with a commanding 73 percent of the vote. Speaking to supporters outside her Midtown campaign headquarters, the 49-year-old mother of two vowed to bring “transparency and accountability” to the DA’s office.



https://www.ajc.com/news/crime/early-results-show-fulton-da-challenger-in-the-lead/X23G6PDMIFBVHJKYH6UVTQMQ54/

Minneapolis breaks 50-year turnout record for a non-presidential primary.

NE-03: On Health Care, Bacon Says One Thing in Nebraska and Another in Washington

Congressman Don Bacon (R-Pharma) is willing to say anything to Nebraskan voters so he can get re-elected and go back to Washington to continue pursuing his corporate-sponsored agenda.

Let’s take a closer look at the evidence:

To Nebraskans: Bacon is “committed to protecting those with pre-existing conditions” [5/11/17]

In Washington: “Hell yes” Bacon will vote to gut protections for pre-existing conditions with his support of the AHCA [8/21/17]

To Nebraskans: “I want to keep parts of the ACA” [8/3/20]

In Washington: Bacon supports a lawsuit to repeal the ACA. Again.[7/30/20]

“Congressman Don Bacon loves to say he’ll protect pre-existing conditions before turning around and voting the opposite once he’s back in Washington,” said DCCC Spokesperson Sarah Guggenheimer. “Nebraskans have heard these false promises from Bacon before and know that when push comes to shove, he will always side with his corporate donors and Washington Republicans over their interests. It’s no wonder voters are ready to kick him out of office.”



https://dccc.org/health-care-bacon-says-one-thing-nebraska-another-washington/

IN-05: Christina Hale releases her first ad of the campaign.

MI-03: Democrat may fare better than usual in West Michigan congressional race.

GRAND RAPIDS, MI — A Democrat hasn’t represented Grand Rapids in Congress since 1976, but the party’s chance of winning Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District seat this November — while still an uphill battle — is improving, one political observer says.

Inside Elections, a Washington D.C.-based nonpartisan political newsletter, has changed its rating for the seat from Leans Republican to Tilts Republican.

Nathan Gonzales, the newsletter’s editor and publisher, said the adjustment was made not so much because of the strength or weakness of the candidates vying for the seat, Republican Peter Meijer and Democrat Hillary Scholten, but because of the man at the top of the ticket: President Donald Trump.

“The 3rd District is vulnerable because of the broader national environment,” he said.

“President Trump is struggling to recapture his 2016 magic across the country, including Michigan. President Trump is underperforming in Michigan compared with four years ago, and that is making a large number of Republican-held districts more competitive than what we would have expected six months or a year ago.”



https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2020/08/democrat-may-fare-better-than-usual-in-west-michigan-congressional-race-political-observer-says.html