RandySF
RandySF's JournalRepublicans suddenly sweating falling deep into House minority
A slew of dismal summer polls and a persistent fundraising gap have left some Republicans fretting about a nightmare scenario in November: That they will fall further into the House minority.
Publicly, House GOP leaders are declaring they can still net the 17 seats needed to flip the chamber. But privately, some party strategists concede it’s a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands.
Far from going on offense, the GOP could be forced to retrench in order to limit their losses. There's a growing fear that Trump’s plummeting popularity in the suburbs could threaten their candidates in traditionally favorable districts, and that their party's eagerness to go on offense might leave some underfunded incumbents and open GOP-held seats unprotected.
Internal Democratic surveys in recent weeks have shown tight races in once-solid GOP seats in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Montana that President Donald Trump carried handily 2016 — data that suggest the battleground is veering in a dangerous direction for the GOP.
"Republicans were jolted by the fact that a lot of white suburban voters abandoned them. The question now is whether that trend will continue," said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who lost reelection in 2018. "If it does, it could endanger some of those districts, particularly in the Midwest."
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/29/republicans-house-seats-385760
KS-02: Watkins admits voting at wrong address, but denies intent Read more her
Rep. Steve Watkins denied Tuesday that he blamed his staff for registering him to vote at a Topeka UPS store, but he also described the completion of his voter form as a “collegial effort.”
In a 29-minute interview with The Star, Watkins, R-Kansas, acknowledged he voted in the wrong city council district in 2019 despite claiming no wrongdoing. And he repeatedly sought to tie the felony charges he faces to his GOP primary rival Jake LaTurner.
“I put my mailing address instead of my physical address on a voter registration and inadvertently received a ballot for the incorrect, I believe, Topeka city council race. Now, that’s a mistake not a felony,” Watkins said.
He attributed the use of the mailing address to his time spent overseas, saying “out of habit my address is my mailing address” after “eight years in the sandbox” with Army in Afghanistan and as a security contractor in Iraq during the 2000s.
However, The Star revealed in 2018 that Watkins had never voted in any election until 2017, several years after his service in the Army ended.
https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article244541302.html#storylink=cpy
MN-05: Omar Hits the Airwaves as Minnesota Primary Challenge Heats Up
ep. Ilhan Omar launched her first TV ad and has beefed up her Facebook presence in response to the increasing threat of a primary challenger.
The defensive moves are a sign that the Aug. 11 race is closer than the Minnesota Democrat’s campaign had previously let on.
Antone Melton-Meaux, a lawyer who has never held elected office, is posing an unusually strong challenge to a Democratic incumbent in the Minneapolis-based 5th District, former Democratic-Farmer-Labor Chairman Mike Erlandson said.
He outraised Omar in the second quarter — $3.2 million to $471,000 — and has spent $1.7 million on TV ads, according to Advertising Analytics. Erlandson said Melton-Meaux has also pushed an aggressive direct mail campaign. He’s targeted the freshman congresswoman for missing 40 House votes and for the lack of bills she’s sponsored, and, without mentioning the incumbent’s name, criticizes her for prioritizing her own profile over representing the district’s interests.
In a recent TV ad, Melton-Meaux touts his progressive bonafides and says he’s “not out to sell books, become a national celebrity or fight for my own agenda.” In another, he says, “I won’t be chasing cameras or selling books.”
https://about.bgov.com/news/omar-hits-the-airwaves-as-minnesota-primary-challenge-heats-up/
TX-25: Roger Williams denies AOC's allegation that he yelled at her about 'throwing urine'
WASHINGTON — New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Tuesday accused Austin Rep. Roger Williams of joining one of his GOP colleagues in yelling at her on the Capitol steps and then proceeding to “blatantly lie” about the exchange.
A Williams spokeswoman denied that the Texan yelled at Ocasio-Cortez, saying that Williams “did not participate in the exchange between Congressman Yoho and Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez, nor did he hear what was said in their conversation.”
“Any comments overheard or attributed to Congressman Williams were part of a separate conversation that he and Congressman Yoho were having,” said Heather Douglass, the spokeswoman. “Congressman Williams would have immediately condemned that type of language towards any colleague.”
Williams had previously said he had not paid attention to the dispute between Ocasio-Cortez and Yoho.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/07/21/aoc-accuses-texan-roger-williams-of-yelling-at-her-about-throwing-urine-during-heated-capitol-exchange/
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones Campaign Hosts '100 Days Out Weekend of Action'
Last month’s virtual Texas Democratic Convention seemed to prove state Democrats’ commitment to doing all they can to ensure Democratic wins in the upcoming general election.
Over the weekend, Gina Ortiz Jones, the Democratic nominee in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, hosted a weekend of action marking 100 days until Election Day. Her team reached out to more than 14,000 voters across South and West Texas, according to a campaign press release.
The stakes are high for Jones; she lost by a mere 926 votes when she ran for the seat two years ago.
Leaving no stone unturned, Jones’ team of grassroots volunteers and organizers hosted virtual, phone and text banks throughout the weekend, directly contacting voters about their candidate’s commitment to fighting for quality, affordable health care and investing in first-class education, trade schools, and skills training.
Texas’ mostly rural 23rd Congressional District stretches from San Antonio to El Paso.
While votes are still being counted in the Republican primary runoff between Tony Gonzales and Raul Reyes, Jones has been reaching out to voters since March from her virtual field office. She has also gone the extra mile to communicate in both English and Spanish in her campaign messaging.
https://www.sasentinel.com/gina-ortiz-jones-campaign-hosts-100-days-out-weekend-of-action
TX-23 Runoff Becomes a National Laughingstock
This Saturday will mark one year since Congressman Will Hurd’s shock retirement left Texas Republicans deflated and rudderless heading into 2020. It will also mark 365 days of Gina Ortiz Jones running for Congress in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District virtually unopposed.
Today, more than three months since Gina Ortiz Jones sailed through her primary, Republicans Tony Gonzales and Raul Reyes are still locked in an “expensive,” “ugly,” and protracted runoff that was hijacked by a “Cruz-Trump proxy war” at the 11th hour. And unfortunately for all players involved, this “comical” primary is still “far from over” as Gonzales and Reyes careen toward a likely recount.
As of today, NRCC-favored Tony Gonzales allegedly leads by a whopping 46 votes over his vastly underfunded opponent Raul Reyes, after the outgoing Bexar County GOP chair led an insurrection and delayed the vote count. With the Allen West-led Texas GOP yet to complete their canvass and Raul Reyes actively raising funds ahead of a recount, there’s no end in sight to the GOP’s utter disaster in TX-23.
https://dccc.org/tx-23-runoff-becomes-national-laughingstock/
MI-13: Rashida Tlaib will not endorse Biden
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) is opening up about why she hasn’t yet joined most members of her party in endorsing presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden.
In an interview with Newsweek published on Monday, the first-year lawmaker, who had previously endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the 2020 presidential race, was pressed about why she hasn’t thrown her support behind the former vice president.
“He hasn't directly called me or anything, but, no, right now I'm focused on my election, my constituents and my residents,” Tlaib told the outlet. “One thing that I know is I'm going to be really focused on turnout in the fall. When I focus on turnout, we will deliver Michigan to Joe Biden.”
“Trump only won Michigan by 10,000 votes. When I turn out my folks and my district, we'll be able to take back the state. When you focus primarily on getting people out to vote in a district like mine, [Biden] wins,” she continued.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/509274-tlaib-opens-up-about-why-she-hasnt-endorsed-biden-yet
NV-03: Ex-wrestler running for Congress (R) subject of 911 calls
Las Vegas police responded twice to 911 calls from Republican congressional candidate Dan Rodimer’s now-wife in 2018 alleging domestic violence and that Rodimer had stolen guns and jewelry belonging to her, according to police records.
In neither case did police arrest or detain Rodimer. No charges were filed. In the initial incident July 20, 2018, police wrote “there was no crime, just a verbal argument and we did not want to embarrass them or make them any more upset.”
The second incident occurred on Nov. 30 of the same year. Rodimer’s then-girlfriend, Sarah Duffy, called 911 saying Rodimer took $200,000 in cash, jewelry and guns from their house before leaving five days earlier, later sending her photographs of what he took. Duffy said she thought Rodimer had spent the days since then at a casino, but police couldn’t find him there.
“I advised (Duffy) to give a 1 week ‘cooling period’ to see if male returns home and they can resolve this matter without police involvement as this is largely a civil matter,” the responding officer wrote. He listed the stolen goods as $20,000, a Rolex watch, an engagement ring from a former relationship and two handguns.
On the 911 call, Duffy can be heard sorting through several objects trying to determine which guns were missing. “There are so many in here, I’m trying to see,” she tells the 911 operator.
https://apnews.com/b6076f09b66405998d4a140da407dcbf
Twitter limits Arizona GOP Chair Kelli Ward's account for spreading COVID-19 misinformation
witter has "temporarily limited" the account features of Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward after determining she violated its policy on spreading misleading and "potentially harmful" information about the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decision by Twitter came after she shared the viral video of a group of physicians making false and misleading comments about the pandemic. Twitter's decision to limit Ward's account came after the social media giant also punished Donald Trump Jr. for posting the same video.
Ward, a physician, has downplayed the severity of the virus's spread in Arizona, even as caseloads skyrocketed and the state spiraled into a national hot spot.
The Arizona Republican Party drew attention to Twitter's decision with a tweet Tuesday that accused the platform of engaging in "Election interference!"
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/28/twitter-limits-kelli-wards-account-over-covid-19-misinformation/5529070002/
Cook Political shifts seven legislative chambers in Democrats' direction.
In the key midwestern battleground of Michigan, a surge by presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads us to shift the state House – the only chamber being contested in the state this cycle – from Lean Republican to Toss Up. We're also shifting towards the Democrats three chambers in southern presidential battleground states where Biden is running tight with Trump. In North Carolina, we're shifting the House from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, where it joins the state Senate, which had already been in the Lean Republican category. In Georgia, we're shifting both chambers from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. As a precaution, we're shifting both chambers in Ohio from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, following the arrest of the Republican House speaker. Finally, we're moving the Connecticut House and Senate, both currently controlled by the Democrats, from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic.
https://cookpolitical.com/july-update-handicapping-2020-state-legislature-races
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