Jill Biden travels to Matamoros to shed light on how these policies hurt asylum seekers.

Delegate distribution may dilute California primary's impact

California moved up its 2020 presidential primary to give the state more of a say in determining the Democratic nominee.

The March 3 election no doubt means greater clout for the state than if the primary had been scheduled for early June, its traditional spot. But it’s unlikely any one candidate will clean up in the Golden State because of complex rules on how Democratic delegates are divvied up.

The distribution process is designed to spread the wealth and force candidates to compete throughout the state.

That’s not to say the cumulative effect of “Super Tuesday” — when California and more than a dozen other states hold nominating contests — won’t dramatically shape the race or determine the eventual winner. But California isn’t likely to do it alone.

The Democratic rules that govern how California delegates will be split up are esoteric but important.

Those complexities so far have been overshadowed by changes in the primary voting process that have election officials concerned about logistics and taking extra steps to avoid voter confusion.

For the first time, voters can register or re-register through Election Day at any polling place. To handle the load, some counties will be setting up satellite election offices to make it easier for people to register and vote early. The San Diego County Board of Supervisors have approved four, which, in addition to the main Registrar of Voters office, means each supervisorial district will have a regional voting center open a few days ahead of the election — in addition to the traditional neighborhood polling places that open on Election Day.



https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/columnists/story/2020-01-03/delegate-distribution-may-lessen-california-primary

US-led coalition sets aside campaign against ISIS to prepare for possible Iran attacks

According to a report from the New York Times, an American-led coalition in Iraq and Syria has set aside their years-long battle with ISIS to focus on expected attacks from Iran in light of President Donald Trump decision to have Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, an Iranian security and intelligence commander killed in a drone attack.

According to the Times, “In a statement, the American command said that after repeated attacks on Iraqi and American bases in recent weeks, one of which killed an American contractor on Dec. 27, ‘we have therefore paused these activities, subject to continuous review.'”

“We remain resolute as partners of the government of Iraq and the Iraqi people that have welcomed us into their country to help defeat ISIS,” the statement added, “We remain ready to return our full attention and efforts back to our shared goal of ensuring the lasting defeat of Daesh.”



https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/us-led-coalition-sets-aside-campaign-against-isis-to-prepare-for-possible-iran-attacks-report/

Awkwafina first woman of Asian descent to win Golden Globe for lead actress in a comedy

On Sunday, “The Farewell” actress became the first woman of Asian descent to win the award for lead actress in a movie comedy/musical.

“I actually just heard that fact, and it was pretty mind-blowing,” Awkwafina said backstage of the historic nature of her win. “It feels incredible, but I think there’s also this other feeling that you want there to be more. I hope this is just the beginning.”

Written and directed by Lulu Wang, “The Farewell” marked the dramatic lead debut for the actress, who was born Nora Lum. In the acclaimed film, Awkwafina plays Billi, an American woman whose family has chosen to keep the truth of a terminal diagnosis from her grandmother in China.

“I would never have expected something like this to happen, especially when we were filming,” Awkwafina told The Times after her nomination was announced last month. “We just wanted to tell the story. So to see that it’s getting recognition ... is really awesome.”

Awkwafina is the second woman of Asian descent to be nominated in the category in two years. Last year, her “Crazy Rich Asians” costar Constance Wu was nominated for lead actress in a movie comedy/musical. (Olivia Colman won that year for her performance in “The Favourite”).



https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2020-01-05/golden-globes-awkwafina-first-asian-lead-actress-comedy-musical

MA-SEN: Kennedy Outraises Markey In Senate Primary

Rep. Joseph Kennedy (D-MA) raised more than $2.4 million over the last three months of 2019, outpacing incumbent Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA) by about $1 million, the Boston Globe reports.


https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/05/kennedy-outraises-markey-in-senate-primary/

The Moment Many Feared Most About Trump

“For three years, President Trump’s critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences,” the New York Times reports.

“In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran’s top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him.”


https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/05/the-moment-many-feared-most-about-trump/

Pelosi announces war powers vote in attempt to limit Trump on Iran

peaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced in a letter Sunday that the House "will introduce and vote on a War Powers Resolution to limit" President Trump's "military actions regarding Iran."

Why it matters: Pelosi announced the action as Trump doubled down on his threat to target 52 Iranian sites and threatened Iraq with sanctions after Iraqi lawmakers passed a resolution asking the government to expel U.S. troops for the killing last Friday of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and the leader of an Iraqi militia on its soil.

What she's saying: In the letter to Democratic House members, Pelosi states, "Last week, the Trump Administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials. This action endangered our service members, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran." The letter continues:

A war with Iran probably won't help re-elect Trump

Let’s take a little break from the 2020 primary this week and instead talk about the other big story right now, a seemingly-imminent direct conflict with Iran. Unless you live under a rock, you know that last week the US assassinated Iran’s Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the country’s highest-ranking military commander. The strike has caused immediate speculation about an all-out war with Iran—some people are even making memes about World War 3, which seems silly—and about political fallout from the strike.

In particular, some analysts seem convinced that Donald Trump will “benefit” electorally from the strike. Wars cause a country to become unified, they reckon. 7People “rally around the flag” and give improved ratings to the Commander in Chief. And after all, war-time presidents tend to do well electorally. The country didn’t toss out FDR or Wilson, for example, and George W. Bush saw a huge surge in support after 9/11. Of course, it tanked after the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq—but they might not mention this fact.

But these so-called “rally-round-the-flag effects” don’t come equally to all who seek them. Though Trump literally tweeted a picture of the American flag after the strike against Soleimani became public knowledge, I’m not so sure he’ll get one. For one thing, we are more polarized than we were under our 20th-century presidents, or even under Bush. Public approval for the president’s foreign policy actions looks much like his overall approval ratings—high among Republicans and low among Democrats. (And oh, yeah, just think about all those hawkish Democrats out there that will suddenly be persuaded by the air-strike to get behind the president.)

Second, war with Iran—or even conflict in the Middle East more broadly—is relatively unpopular today. And go figure! Americans have spent nearly two decades watching endless media coverage of the back-and-forth over political control of the region. We’ve watched two war-like conflicts and a prolonged struggle with ISIS and other terrorist groups unfold on national television. And people are particularly unhappy about the prospect of war with Iran; only 20% of adults voiced support for it in a September poll from the University of Maryland.

In sum, it seems foolish to me to assume that a war with Iran will help the president politically or electorally. Maybe I’ve missed something here, but the lessons we’ve learned about partisan motivated reasoning over the past decade suggest that very little will change voters’ minds about the president. Given the current state of public opinion regarding the Middle East, it seems especially unlikely that a war with Iran is the event that can do so.



https://thecrosstab.substack.com/p/january-5-2019-a-war-with-iran-probably?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNzI2NjY5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoyMTUxMTYsIl8iOiJHRzRoUSIsImlhdCI6MTU3ODI4MjQ0OCwiZXhwIjoxNTc4Mjg2MDQ4LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNjI3MyIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.LVxVpkz_MdhoWaP27-ODJeHIxaRhvQklpM9WHKUMQcg

The Most Important Dates In the Democratic Primary

Nate Silver ranks the most important dates on the Democratic primary calendar, weighted in his model by delegates awarded and the bounce candidates have typically received winning the early states:

1. March 3 – Super Tuesday
2. February 3 – Iowa Caucuses
3. April 28 – NY, PA, MD, DE, RI, CT
4. March 17 – FL, OH, IL, AZ
5. February 11 – New Hampshire
6. March 10 – MI, MO, MS, WA, ID, ND
7. February 22 – Nevada (tie)
7. February 29 – South Carolina (tie)
7. June 2 – NJ, MT, NM, SD, DC



https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/05/the-most-important-dates-in-the-democratic-primary/

This is why you don't make flamethrowers at home