February 29, 2016

Suffolk Poll, MA, Clinton +8 (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/28/clinton-leads-sanders-massachusetts/81078554/

As noted, the poll ended Saturday and does not account for any post SC bounce. MOE is 4.4, so the spread is outside that, but with an MOE of that size the poll is of modest reliability only.

Still, Sanders' Tuesday night may be even rougher than we think. Even the smallest win in MA destroys his New England firewall.

February 25, 2016

First Rhode Island poll! Clinton +9 (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://wpri.com/2016/02/25/poll-clinton-trump-on-top-in-ri-primary-races/

Clinton leads 49-40 in the first Rhode Island poll I've seen in a while.

Uh, so about that New England firewall that Sanders has? Um...we may need to discuss that.

February 25, 2016

Monmouth Poll: Clinton +34 Texas (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/fd1752af-cc7a-4b4c-9125-1d26f351cc4a.pdf

I don't think this has been posted yet--admins, please feel free to delete if I missed it in the mass of polls today!

Mrs. Clinton leads the Lone Star state by +34 (64-30), consistent with other current polls.

The fun takeaway here is that 24% of Clinton's voters have already early voted, 18% of Sanders' voters have early voted.

So, where's that lack of motivation among Clinton supporters again? I'm not seeing it in Texas, that's for sure.

February 25, 2016

Austin American-Statesman +40 Clinton (Clinton Group)

http://projects.statesman.com/news/texas-pulse-statesman-poll/

Select the Democratic numbers to view those.

In this poll, probably a slight outlier, Clinton leads 66 to 26, a +40 lead.

February 24, 2016

Kos Straw Poll (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/23/1489795/-Daily-Kos-Democratic-Primary-Straw-Poll-2-23-16

Let's start out by stating, definitively, that straw polls mean diddly squat nothing null zero jack.

Just to be quite emphatic about that.

However, it's interesting to note the erosion in Sanders' numbers even on a sister site that's notoriously liberal. Just working from the very end of last year (when the Sanders campaign really got rolling):

12/29/15: Sanders 73, Clinton 26
1/13/16: Sanders 65 (-8), Clinton 32 (+8)
1/26/16: Sanders 61 (-4, -12 overall), Clinton 35 (+3, +11 overall)
2/23/16: Sanders 53 (-8, -20 overall), Clinton 44 (+9, +20 overall)
(the last entry can be found at the current poll at the bottom of the page)

Again, this means nothing, but I found the trend line interesting. From a very strong +47 dominance, Sanders has fallen to a scant +7 lead in what should be a bastion of very strong support for him.

February 21, 2016

Early SC guesses? (Hillary Clinton Group)

Now that Nevada's behind us and we're doing some well-deserved celebrating, anybody care to guess about SC next Saturday?

I'll put mine in on Clinton +22.

February 20, 2016

Nevada Exit Polls (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-democratic-caucus-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37077053

About an even split, overall, and no clear indication of a winner.

February 20, 2016

Nevada Caucus Results (Hillary Clinton Group)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/nevada/

You can watch them come in live here! Results should start showing sometime from mid to late afternoon, Eastern time.

February 19, 2016

No Dual Voting in NV (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/270051-nevada-dems-threaten-prosecution-for-anyone-participating-in-caucuses-under

The party has threatened prosecution for anybody who votes twice, once in the Dem and once in the Rep primaries.

So although my title's a bit hyperbolic, at least it should reduce the ratty behavior a bit tomorrow...if there's one thing Repubs don't like, it's sunlight when they're trying to cheat.

February 19, 2016

Telemundo Town Hall (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/watch-live-msnbc-and-telemundo-air-town-hall-featuring-democratic-presidential-candidates/

Live feed here, on right now--sorry, I missed the first hour with Sanders except for a very short bit. It should also be on your MSNBC channel.