Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's JournalRemember when Trump promised 5 million to charity if Obama birth certificate real?
Time to pay up, Donny
https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/776816093830778880
#BirtherWhitewash hashtag
Josh Marshall will be aggregating Journalists who allow Trump to skate on his birther history. Help him out.
See
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/776765600123219969
An experiment in manipulating online media.
#Pastorbashing
Can we make it trend on twitter? So that "people are talking" about it?
anyone game?
Stop with the "CNN didn't poll anyone under 50"
They do not report data for subgroups with margins of error above a certain threshold.
If I were Powell I'd endorse HRC immediately
He has a lot of shit talking to make up for.
He usually waits until later in the cycle to have more impact but hard to believe he could more impactful than right now.
Just my thoughts.
Yougov poll over weekend does not show pronounced "bad weekend effect"
H42 T40
About the same.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/14/clinton-maintains-narrow-lead-over-trump/
Still expect QPAC to be devastating for many here.
Average of the national polls this week (thus far)
So far looks a lot like last week:
NBC/SurveyMonkey NEW! Clinton +4
UPI/CVOTER NEW! Trump +3
Morning Consult Clinton +1
ABC/Post Clinton +8
Average is 5, median is 2.5 for Clinton
However, two of these (ABC, Morning Whatever) are prior to the stupidfest this weekend.
UPI has been more pro-Trump than other polls, and has had him leading a few times already. Very sensitive to pro-Trump data.
My own model estimates that we should see a national spread between Clinton and
Trump of ~ 3.8 for Clinton.
Expect a CBS poll any day now
It's been a while (July 31? I think) since we've seen one.
There actually hasn't been much erosion in HRCs poll numbers
Take a look at this graphic:
(courtesy @willjordan, YouGov, on Twitter)
There has been an expansion of one of the tails of the distribution toward Trump, slightly. The body of the distribution is more or less where it's been for a long time. And the sampling density of polls was much higher near the conventions. If we had more frequent polling I am fairly sure we'd fill in the middle of that distribution more!
Some here really need to get a grip.
People vacillate from JOY to TERROR here so quickly, far more quickly than the fundamentals underlying this election can possibly change.
Do yourself a favor, whatever emotion you are currently feeling about this election, examine it. Are you letting the potential consequences of HRC losing overwhelm the actual object probability she does lose? Then put that emotion away, it doesn't affect anything but you.
Throw away whatever your gut feeling is. Go to http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster and count up the states where HRC has a lead. Add up their electoral votes. Try it a few times. Randomly drop a few states from her corner Use electoral-vote.com if you need to see a graphical representation. How many times does she lose the election? Divide this by the number of runs you try.
That's the only number you need to worry about.
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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AMNumber of posts: 4,602
