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Loki Liesmith

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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Today's polls show that the Kerry Wall has held

That is a massive advantage for Democrats in this election and going forward. If the last two weeks didn't breach that wall, I don't think that much can.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Sep 22, 2016, 10:43 AM (15 replies)

Election Model Update

Last Update
######################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
######################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 0.676879661359
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 285.7502
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 304

######################################
#
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
######################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 0.632426988922
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 283.84
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 285.5
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 288


Estimated National Spread: +3.04, Clinton


Instantaneous Win probability has shown some decline from last update, but given a bad few weeks of polls, I think the hints of recovery today have helped a lot.

No more analysis, somehow someone will accuse me of concern trolling for posting what I think are some positive numbers.

Maybe I'll post some graphics later.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 09:21 PM (2 replies)

Hypothesis on the nature of this election: 1980 redux

Hackneyed pols often trot out the example of 1980 and Ronald Reagan as key to understanding the effect of debates.

In that election, RR was tied or trailing Jimmy Carter for months until the debates "showed" that RR wasn't a complete corpse on stage. It

assured the public (or so we are told) that Reagan was ready...and people fell in line to vote for him.

A lot of people have been presuming this to be the template for the current election...believing that HRC is carter and Trump is Reagan.

But what if this is wrong? Clinton's numbers are the most elastic: she passes 50% frequently in the polls, when not under press attack.

Trump NEVER does. People want to vote for her over Trump, but are concerned about the bad press she has gotten.

So maybe this means that people are waiting for a reason to get on board with Hillary. Maybe SHE is Reagan in this scenario.

Just a thought.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 04:17 PM (10 replies)

Trump has made essentially no progress in Wisconsin for months

Clinton has only slumped a bit. She wins this on turnout

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 01:46 PM (3 replies)

New Hampshire Monmouth Poll

HRC 47
DJT 38
GJ 10
JS 1

Epic result.

We own the map now. Probably.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 01:32 PM (9 replies)

If Marquette's Wisconsin poll is good for Clinton I'll eat my hat

They have had Trump closing for weeks. Brace yourselves...incoming.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 11:34 AM (17 replies)

NC Poll by PPP: not a great result

Donald Trump 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Gary Johnson 6
Clinton/Trump head to head is tied at 47

This is not a "sick Hillary effect". Poll was Sunday-Tuesday.

NC will be a hard state to win.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Sep 21, 2016, 10:41 AM (58 replies)

Here is why 538's odds on Hillary are decreasing while The Upshot is increasing.

I knew this, but had put it out of mind. 538 aims to be a predictive model and in doing so it projects trends in horse race numbers forward in time. Today's polls by Monmouth and St. Leo in Florida both had larger leads for HRC way back in August. So todays lead for her is indicatrive of downward trend in her numbers. So her numbers, coupled with weirdo Reuters semi-polls, actually got WORSE.

Frankly, I think this methodology makes no sense. If you do believe in statistical momentum (and I'm not sure I do), incorporate it into your model using the agggregate horse race numbers, not individual polls. If you fit the trendlines to individual polls, you effectively penalize that poll for having drawn an outlier in the past. I can't see a rationale for that at all.

Fitting data in this manner will cause your model to jump around haphazardly, based on the coupling coefficients to each polls trendline, because the polls come at stochastic time. Using an aggregate trend over all polls makes more sense if you value consistency in a model.

Nate Cohn, at NYTimes Upshow seems to have noticed this as well, and I don't think he agrees with Silver based on his twitter timeline.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Sep 20, 2016, 07:11 PM (30 replies)

T+1 in North Caroline over Clinton's Hell Week

https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.html

Not bad. Very gettable.

Once the bad days shake out of everyone's samples, things are looking much rosier.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Sep 20, 2016, 11:04 AM (4 replies)

Ipsos poll of Ohio has HRC up +3

But Ipsos 50 state polling is very iffy. Take with grain of salt.

It's a two week window. Yikes.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Sep 20, 2016, 10:41 AM (7 replies)
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