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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Trump Aide Secretly Visited Russia...

This is a conservative rag. But the editor in chief HATES Trump.

They have been cut in on an exclusive, it seems.

The only NEW INFO here is an update to the story that is very interesting.

Update:

Carter Page, a then foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump, spent several days in Russia secretly, right before the DNC hack by Russia was released. Not only did he slam the United States, Page met secretly with Russia’s deputy Prime Minister – and possibly another Russian official whom Donald Trump has praised openly on Twitter since 2013.


http://heatst.com/world/update-fbi-investigation-trump-aide-carter-page-secretly-visited-russian-govt/
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 10:42 AM (4 replies)

Trumps in Trouble. Let's review what we learned today, kids...

First, some background
0) Sept. 28 asks Comey if Trump is being investigated for ties to Russia. Comey won't answer.

...

1) FBI has had the Abedin emails for weeks.
2) Only informed Comey (supposedly) last week.
3) Jason Chaffetz re-endorses (after un-endorsing following tape) Trump Thursday before he publically announces receipt of letter by Comey
4) Comey sends letter. Is tweeted out before ranking committee members (our side) see it.
5) Clinton campaign does NOT freak out, and immediately begin pressuring for full release
6) Story in WSJ that there is a group of FBI agents following Breitbart stories and trying to investigate Clinton over them.
7) Group is ordered to stand down, and they rebel, forcing Comey to write letter.
6) Judge to issue a warrant to release emails
7) Harry Reid sends a letter critiquing Comey and asking why there has been no follow up on a request he made about Trump ties to Russia
8) Many current and former high ranking law enforcement officials critique Comey
9) Tonight, calls for Comey to resign begin

Also, just for fun, remember there are two big opposition drops due this week. And consider this tweet from Jesse F. Ferguson
(HRC's deputy press secretary)
https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/792914276600123392

Sleep tight, my monkeys.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 31, 2016, 12:48 AM (34 replies)

Anyone else find it odd...

That the Trump campaign hasn't called out Harry Reid for implying they are being investigated for links to Russia?

Me? I find that very odd.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 30, 2016, 08:53 PM (3 replies)

An "interesting" twitter thread

https://twitter.com/JYSexton/status/792875365253443584

Some of the replies are insightful as well.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 30, 2016, 08:11 PM (3 replies)

Upshot Siena Poll Florida Trump 46 Clinton 42

Republicans in poll unified, Democrats not.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 30, 2016, 08:29 AM (11 replies)

Trump will be tied in WaPo poll shortly because

It user voter intensity to determine who is a likely voter. And Trumpkin voter intensity is going to 11 right now
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat Oct 29, 2016, 07:56 AM (9 replies)

I know I'm in the minority about Comey but

I honestly think he is just too stupid to live.

I don't think he was actually trying to do politics by other means. I think he's just a goddamn moron.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Oct 28, 2016, 10:55 PM (21 replies)

Suspect Massive DDoS today is practice for Nov 8

Consider: internet down, fake reports of fraud, faked documents online alleging fraud.

Point isn't to change election. Point is to sow confusion and doubt so Trumpists think they have been cheated.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Oct 21, 2016, 02:10 PM (24 replies)

Election Model 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 320.2
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 339

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 327.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 331.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 343

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.99


Approaching the consensus 7 point lead in the polling averages.

For my next updates, i'm going to try and add some graphics and state by state projections. It's time.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Oct 19, 2016, 02:24 PM (1 replies)

Election Model Update 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 319.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 327

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.16 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 326.12
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 329.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 329

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.87

Comments: Drift and Instantaneous model continue to converge. Clinton national lead approaching that estimated by national surveys.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 18, 2016, 04:42 PM (2 replies)
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