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Loki Liesmith

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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

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Posted by | Wed Dec 31, 1969, 08:00 PM ( replies)

FBI ‘Granted FISA Warrant’ Covering Trump Camp’s Ties To Russia (including server)

The FISA warrant was granted in connection to investigate suspected activity between the server and two banks, SVB Bank and Alfa Bank. However, it is thought in the intelligence community that the warrant covers any ‘US person’ connected to this investigation, and thus covers Donald Trump and at least three further men who have either formed part of his campaign or acted as his media surrogates. The warrant was sought, they say, because actionable intelligence on the matter provided by friendly foreign agencies could not properly be examined without a warrant by US intelligence as it involves ‘US Persons’ who come under the remit of the FBI and not the CIA. Should a counter-intelligence investigation lead to criminal prosecutions, sources say, the Justice Department is concerned that the chain of evidence have a basis in a clear warrant.

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-fbi-granted-fisa-warrant-covering-trump-camps-ties-to-russia/

(cutting it a bit close guys)

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 11:32 PM (21 replies)

Anyone got any new polling data for Michigan?

That state is impoverished for polls...

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:11 PM (2 replies)

Monmouth National Poll (4 way): C50 T44

BREAKING: National likely voters

HRC 50
DJT 44
GJ 4
JS 1

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:03 PM (0 replies)

Hidden vote: women.

A thought that occurred to me while reading some commentary on polilng. What does the early vote look like with women compared to 2012. If anyone has that data, it would be interesting to share.

It's possible that a "hidden women vote" can in part counteract any "hidden white vote" (which as likely as not does not actually exist).

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:24 AM (4 replies)

I think we have this locked down folks

Mostly I just want this called early. Florida or NC, come through...I need my sleep.

The only possible way don't win is if we are somehow not polling enough poor whites. I think the analysis of this heretofore has been pretty sound, though.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:15 AM (4 replies)

Heads up on oppo dump and Eichenwald

I had one person tell me Eichenwald is not oppo dump, but related for it (context). I had another person tell me it is the oppo dump.

So I honestly don't know at this point.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:07 PM (16 replies)

Election Model Update 11/3/2016

Unfortunately I never got the map to work in my python code

But here's the numbers:

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 81.94 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 306.19
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 308.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 317

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.49 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 312.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 306

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 4.46

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:43 PM (5 replies)

4 NH polls today

2 are not great so far but one is ARG so can likely be completely discounted.
Other 2 dropping later. Would be nice to see a firewall there.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:34 AM (23 replies)

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