Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's JournalFeel safe to say we've hit linear growth in C19 deaths this week
The data from the last few days is going to be clunky because of the usual weekend lag in reporting and Easter but even given that it seems fair to say that we have successfully made the derivative of the new deaths curve constant. Maybe even close to zero. The main questions now for me: 1) how long is the plateau/descent. Long tail gets us to 100k verified dead. 2) what is the temperature effect on R? It looks to be real. Is it big enough to explain the relatively fewer cases in the American South? Can we hope for a summer respite?
This will be an informative week. We should know how good the IHME model is by week’s end.
Starting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling.
A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.
The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.
This is fantastic news. It's been clear to me for a while that the exponential trend was fading.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html
New Cases of COVID-19 in the US appear to be going linear!
About 20k added each day for the last 3-4 days or so.
We may be off the exponential growth track!
Some significant fraction of this is New York slowing down.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AMNumber of posts: 4,602
