nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US House Elections-Democrats guide to a majority.
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to get back in the majority.
Republican held Congressional Districts that have a Even or +D PVI are
1)CA-10 (Denham-R)
2)CA-21 (Valadao-R)
3)CA-25 (Knight-R)
4)CA-39 (Royce-R)
5)CO-6 (Coffman-R)
6)FL-26 (Curbelo-R)
7)FL-27 ( Ros-Lehtinen-R)
8)IA-1 (Blum-R)
9)MN-3 ( Paulsen-R)
10)NY-24 (Katko-R)
11)VA-10 (Comstock-R)
12)WA-8 (Reichert-R)
Republican held Congressional Districts that are less than +2R PVI are
13)AZ-2 (McSally-R) It would be great if Gabby Giffords runs for the House and her husband runs for the Senate.
14)CA-49 (Issa-R)
15)IL-6 (Roskam-R)
16)IA-3 (Young-R)
17)ME-2 (Poliquin-R)
18)MN-2 (Lewis-R)
19)NJ-2 (LoBiondo-R)
20)NJ-3 (MacArthur- R)
21)NY-19 (Faso-R)
22)PA-6 (Costello-R)
23)PA-7 (Meehan-R)
24)PA-8 (Kirkpatrick-R)
25)TX-23 ( Hurd-R)
Democrats could lose
1)MN-1 (Walz-D)
2)MN-7 (Peterson-D)
Democrats also need to target Republican held Congressional Districts that have a +3/+4R PVI
1)CA-45 (Walters-R)
2)CA-48 (Rohrabacher-R)
3)FL-25 (Diaz-Balart-R)
4)IL-13 (Davis-R)
5)KS-3 (Yoder-R)
6)MI-6 (Upton-R)
7)MI-8 (Bishop-R)
8)MI-11 (Trott-R)
9)NE-2 (Bacon-R)
10)NJ-7 (Lance-R)
11)NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R)
12)NY-2 (King-R)
13)NY-11 (Donovan-R)
14)NY-21 (Stefanick-R)
15)OH-10 (Turner-R)
16)PA-15 (Dent-R)
17)VA-2 (Taylor-R)
18)WA-3 (Herrara-Beutler-R)
2018 US House Elections-Democrats guide to a majority.
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats. Democrats should target Republican held Congressional Districts which Republicans carried in 2016/2017 by a margin less than 15 percent.
The Republican held US House seats Democrats have a strong chance of winning in 2018 is
1)CA-10 (Denham-R)
2)CA-21 (Valadao-R)
3)CA-25 (Knight-R)
4)CA-49 (Issa-R)
5)CO-6 (Coffman-R)
6)FL-27 ( Ros-Lehtinen-R )
7)IA-1 (Blum-R)
8)ME-2 (Poliquin-R)
9)MN-2 (Lewis-R)
10)NE-2 (Bacon-R)
11)NY-19 (Faso-R)
12)NY-22 (Tenney-R)
13)PA-8 (Kirkpatrick-R)
14)TX-23 (Hurd-R)
15)VA-10 (Comstock-R)
Democrats have a greater than 50 percent chance of winning in 2018 is
16)AL-2 (Roby-R)
17)AK (Young-R)Begich-D has a better chance of unseating Young in 2018 then Sullivan-R in 2020.
18)AZ-2 (McSally-R)
19)CA-39 (Royce-R)
20)CO-3 (Tipton-R)
21)FL-18 (Mast-R)Murphy-D should run for his old US House seat.
22)FL-26 (Curbelo-R)
23)IL-12 (Bost-R)
24)KS-3 (Yoder-R)
25)MI-11 (Trott-R)
26)MN-3 (Paulsen-R)
27)NJ-6 (Lance-R)
28)NC-2 (Holding-R)
29)NC-13 (Budd-R)
30))PA-6 (Costello-R)
31)PA-16 (Smucker-R)
32)TX-32 (Culberson-R)
33)UT-4 (Love-R)
Democrats have a 50-50 percent chance of winning in 2018 is
34)GA-6(Handel-R)Ossof-D rematch.
35)IN-9 (Hollingsworth-R)
36)IA-3 (Young-R)
37)KS-4 (Estes-R)Thompson-D rematch.
38)MI-1 (Bergman-R)
39)MT(Gianforte-R)Quist-D rematch.
Anybody watching Full Frontal with Samantha Bee?
They were showing a clip of Bernie Sanders debating Ted Cruz . The Democratic nominee in 2018 TX US House Race (O'Rourke) needs study Bernie Sanders performance in that debate and perform well as or better than Bernie.
When was the last time Democrats came close to winning a US House Race in a
Solid Republican Congressional District?
2005- OH-2 CD Special Election. Democratic nominee Paul Hackett got 48 percent of the vote in that race against Republican nominee Jean Schmidt who got 52 percent of the vote. OH-2CD is the district that Bush43 carried with over 60 percent of the popular.
Democrat(James Thompson) got over 45 percent of the vote in the 2017 US House Special Election in KS-4. KS-4 is more Republican than OH-2. Ron Estes(R-KS) is a establishment Republican, served as KS State Treasurer for 2 terms. Estes is less controversial than Schmidt.
2020 is the year when the Democrats definitely regain control of the US Senate.
2018- Highly vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats in IN,MO,MT,ND,and OH and semi vulnerable Democritic held US Senate seats in FL,MI,PA,VA,and WI will remain in the Democratic column. Democrats will pick up AZ and NV and lose TX by a high single digit margin. 50D 50R with VP Pence breaking the tie.
2020- Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats in MN,NH,and VA will remain in the Democratic column. Democrats will pick up CO and NC. GA could go either way. Expect Graham-SC and Cornyn-TX to face a tough primary challenge and lose in the Republican primary. Could KY AG Beshear defeat McConnell?
2018 KS-4 US House Race- James Thompson is seeking a rematch in November 2018.
What are Thompson's chances of winning on November 2018 with a Governors Race that is Tossup. Can Thompson benefit from Paul Davis Coattails? Democrats can also pick up more friendly Democratic Congressional district in KS-3 if Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder runs for Governor in 2018.
2018 US House Election-Democrats guide to a majority.
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats.
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-21
4)CA-25
5)CA-39
6)CA-45
7)CA-48
8)CA-49
9)CO-6
10)FL-25
11)FL-26
12)FL-27
13)IL-6
14)IL-13
15)IA-1
16)IA-3
17)KS-3
18)ME-2
19)MI-6
20)MI-8
21)MI-11
22)MN-2
23)MN-3
24)NE-2
25)NJ-2
26)NJ-3
27)NJ-7
28)NJ-11
29)NY-2
30)NY-11
31)NY-19
32)NY-21
33)NY-24
34)OH-10
35)PA-6
36)PA-7
37)PA-8
38)PA-15
39)TX-23
40)VA-2
41)VA-10
42)WA-3
43)WA-8
44)GA-6
45)KS-4
46)MT-AL
These are Congressional districts that are +4R and less.
2018 US House Election in KS. Due to the closeness of today's Special Election in KS 4, What are the
Democratic party's chance of winning less Republican friendly KS US House districts in KS-2 and KS-3
Alabama US Senate Special Election may occur sooner than November 2018.
Republican Governor Kay Ivey has until May 2017 to have a special election for the AL US Senate seat in 2017. If the Special Election takes place in November 2017, AL Democrats need to nominate a top tier candidate-the Democratic party version of Scott Brown. Roger Bedford and the Republicans nominate the lackluster Luther Strange. The AL US Senate seat goes Democratic. In 2018 Democrats win every single Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 plus AZ and NV, Democrats will have 51 seats in the US Senate on January 2019.
States which the Democrats can win the Governorship and State Legislature in 2018.
CA
CO-hold onto the Governorship and regain control of the State Senate.
CT-hold onto the Governorship and increase the number Democratic held seats in the State Senate.
FL-pick up the Governorship.
GA-pick up the Governorship
IL-pick up the Governorship
ME-pick up the Governorship and regain control of the State Senate.
MD-pick up the Governorship
MA-pick up the Governorship
Do Democrats have a veto-proof majority in the MD and MA state Legislature? What about IL?
MI-pick up the Governorship
MN-hold onto the Governorship and regain control of the State Senate.
NV-pick up the Governorship and holding onto the majority in the state assembly and state senate.
NH-pick up the Governorship.
NJ-pick up the Governorship
NM-pick up the Governorship
NY-regain control of the State Senate
OH-pick up the Governorship
OR
PA-hold onto the Governorship
RI
VT-Democratic majority in the State House and Senate is veto proof. State has 1 US House seat.
VA-hold onto the Governorship and regain control of the State Senate.
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