nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalIf there had been a US Senate Race in MI in 2016, Would Peters-D or Stabenow-D have won?
The reason why I am asking is because during the 2016 election every state voted straight party for Presidential and US Senate Race. MI narrow went for Trump, Any chance MI voted the way PA and WI voted in the 2016 US Senate Races?
2018 US Senate Election Cycle will like the 1990 US Senate Election Cycle if Democratic wave or
2002 US Senate Election Cycle if Republican wave.
1990-Every single Democratic incumbent US Senator won re-election-especially the one from states that Bush 41 won in 1988.
Heflin-AL,Pryor-AR,Biden-DE,Nunn-GA,Simon-IL,Johnston-LA,Levin-MI,Baucus-MT,Exon-NE,Bradley-NJ,Boren-OK,and Gore-TN.
1 Republican incumbent lost re-election-Boschwitz-MN.
If 2018 is like 1990-Every Democratic incumbent US Senator from a state that Trump won in 2016 will win re-election.
Nelson-FL
Donnelly-IN
Stabenow-MI
McCaskill-MO
Tester-MT
Heitkamp-ND
Brown-OH
Casey-PA
Manchin-WV
Baldwin-WI
2 Republican incumbent US Senators will lose re-election.
Flake-AZ
Heller-NV
Unlike in 1990 when most of the Bush41 state Democratic incumbents won by a landslide margin, The Trump state Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2018 are going to win by a narrow margin (Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,Heitkamp-ND,and Brown-OH), high single digit margin (Nelson-FL and Baldwin-WI), low double digit margin (Casey-PA and Manchin-WV),and landslide margin (Stabenow-MI)
2002- 2 Democratic incumbents lost re-election (Cleland-GA and Carnahan-MO) Democrats also lost the MN-Wellstone seat.
1 Republican incumbent lost re-election in the general (Hutchinson-AR) and 1 Republican incumbent lost re-election in the primary (Smith-NH) NH seat remained in the Republican column.
If 2018 is like 2002, Donnelly-IN and McCaskill-MO lose re-election by a narrow to high single digit margin. Heller-NV loses re-election in the general. Flake-AZ loses re-election in the primary but seat remains in the Republican column.
Soon to be former US Senators before and after the 2018 elections and their replacement.
Former US Senators before the 2018 elections.
AL-Strange-R/Moore-R
NJ-Menendez-D
Scenario 1-Menendez-D is forced to resign before Murphy-D becomes governor.-A Republican succeeds Menendez-D but is likely to loose in the special election to a Democrat.
Scenario 2-Menendez-D resigns after Murphy-D becomes governor.-A Democrat suceeds Menendez-D
Could Corzine-D win his old US Senate Seat?
Former US Senators after the 2018 elections
AZ-Flake-R/Sinema-D or Stanton-D
CA-Feinstein-D/Garcetti-D
IN-Donnelly-D/Messer-R or Rokita-R
MO-McCaskill-D/Hawley-R
NV-Heller-R/Rosen-D
UT-Hatch-R/McMullin-I/R
2018 US Senate Election-Vulnerable Democratic and Republican held seats.
Vulnerable Democratic Seats
1)MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R Tossup
2)IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer-R or Rokita-R Tossup
3)OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R Slight Lean Democratic
4)MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale-R Slight Lean Democratic
5)ND-Heitkamp-D vs Campbell-R or Cramer-R Slight Lean Democratic
6)WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey-R or Jenkins-R Lean Democratic
7)FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R Lean Democratic
8)WI-Baldwin-D vs Nicholson-R Lean Democratic
9)PA-Casey-D vs Barletta-R Likely Democratic
10)MI-Stabenow-D vs Kid Rock-R Likely Democratic
11)VA-Kaine-D vs Stewart-R Likely Democratic
12)NJ-if Menendez-D resigns after Murphy-D becomes Governor. Likely Democratic
Vulnerable Republican Seats
1)NV-Heller-R or Tarkanian-R vs Rosen-D Lean Democratic
2)AZ-Flake-R or Ward-R vs Sinema-D Slight Lean Democratic
3)TX-Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D Likely Republican
Will orange be the new pink?
Mix orange and pink together,
You get an imPEACH color.
2018 US Senate Election -10 closest US Senate Race in 2018 from the most closest to least closests.
If 2018 is a Democratic wave
1)MO-McCaskill-D wins or loses by a less than 2.5 percent margin.
2)IN-Donnelly-D wins or loses by a less than 2.5 percent margin.
3)OH-Brown-D wins by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
4)MT-Tester-D wins by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
5)ND-Heitkamp-D wins by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
6)WV-Manchin-D wins by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
7)AZ-Flake-R loses by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
8)NV-Heller-R loses by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
9)FL-Nelson-D wins by a 7.5 to 10 percent margin.
10)WI-Baldwin-D wins by a 7.5 to 10 percent margin.
Democrats pick up between 0 to 2 seats.
If 2018 is a Republican wave.
1)OH-Brown-D wins or loses by a less than 2.5 percent margin.
2)MT-Tester-D wins by a less than 2.5 percent margin.
3)ND-Heitkamp-D wins by a less than 2.5 percent margin.
4)WV-Manchin-D wins by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
5)AZ-Flake-R loses by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
6)NV-Heller-R loses by a 2.5 to 5 percent margin.
7)FL-Nelson-D wins by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
8)MO-McCaskill-D loses by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
9)IN-Donnelly-D loses by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
10)WI-Baldwin-D wins by a 5 to 7.5 percent margin.
Democrats lose between 0 to 1 seat.
2020 Democratic Presidential/Vice Presidential Ticket- McAullife/Harris.
Outgoing Virginia Governor Terry McAullife is the likely Democratic nominee for the 2020 US Presidential Election. McAullife is a former Governor from the east coast, wealthy businessman, and former DNC chairman.
Freshmen California US Senator Kamala Harris should be McAullife's Vice Presidential runningmate. Harris is a US Senator from the west coast, non white female, former State Attorney General and county District Attorney General. Harris is the 2nd most progressive US Senator.
Is the pink underwear sold at a Arizona clothing store? or Do the prisoners spray paint it pink?
If Arpaio and Trump were smart, they would allow the Mexicans to enter the United States, work at a factory in Arizona for a minimum wage- making pink underwear and then provide the pink underwear to the prisoners for a price. Require the prisoners to purchase and wear the pink underwear.
Any chance Sherriff Joe Arpaio gets position on Fox News Channel?
Fox News Channel Criminal Justice Commentator on Hannity or host his own show-Sherriff Joe trumps America.
Should Seth MacFarlane produce another cartoon sitcom about a fat mean old government official?
A local sherriff/prison guard from Arizona.
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