nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018,2020,and 2022 US Senate Election- Democrats path to a supermajority w/Democrat in W.H. in 2021.
2018
Hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018. 49D 51R
Pick up AZ(Sinema-D) and NV(Rosen-D. +2D 51D 49R
2020
Hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2020 including AL(Republicans will nominate another Moore type candidate). 51D 49R
Pick up AZ special(Gallego-D),CO(Neguse-D),GA(Evans-D),IA(Boulton-D),ME(Gideon-D),and NC(Foxx-D)+6D 57D 43R
2022
Hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2022. 57D 43R
Pick up FL(Murphy-D),PA(Lamb-D),and WI(Pocan-D) 60D 40R
Could the 2018 and 2020 US Senate Election cycle be like the 2006 and 2008 US Senate Election?
During the 2006 and 2008 US Senate Election cycles Democrats picked up
1)AK(Begich-D)2008
2)CO(Udall-D)2008
3)MN(Franken-D)2008
4)MO(McCaskill-D)2006
5)MT(Tester-D)2006
6)NH(Shaheen-D)2008
7)NM(Udall-D)2008
8)NC(Hagan-D)2008
9)OH(Brown-D)2006
10)OR(Merkley-D)2008
11)PA(Casey-D)2006
12)RI(Whitehouse-D)2006
13)VA(Webb-D)2006
14)VA(Warner-D)2008
If 2018 and 2020 US Senate Election cycles are like 2006 and 2008, Democrats will pick up
1)AZ(Sinema-D)2018
2)AZ special(Tipirnini-D)2020
3)CO(Neguse-D)2020
4)GA(Evans-D)2020
5)IA(Finkenauer-D)2020
6)KY(McGrath-D)2020
7)ME(Hannah Pingree-D)2020
8)MS(Baria-D)2020
9)MT(Bullock-D)2020
10)NV(Rosen-D)2018
11)NC(Foxx-D)2020
12)TN(Bredesen-D)2018
13)TX(O'Rourke-D)2018
14)TX(Castro-D)2020
2018,2020,and 2022- US Senate Election- best and worse case scenarios for Democrats.
2018- best
Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2018
Pick up AZ,NV,TN,and TX. +4D 53D 47R
2018- worse
Pick up AZ and NV
Lose IN,MO,and ND -1D 48D 52R
2020- best
Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2020
Pick up AZ special,CO,GA,IA,ME,NC,and TX +7D 55 to 60D 40 to 45R
2020- worse
Pick up AZ special,CO,and NC
Lose AL +2D 50 to 55D 45 to 50R
2022- best
Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2022
Pick up FL,GA,IA,NC,OH,PA,and WI. +7D 57 to 67D 33 to 43R
2022- worse
Pick up FL,NC,PA,and WI. +4D 54 to 64D 36 to 46R
Democrats guide to 60 US Senate Seats in 2020.
2018
Democrats will pick up AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),and TN(Bredesen-D) +3D 52D 48R
Republicans will pick up ND(Cramer-R)+2D 51D 49R
2020
Republicans will pick up AL(Roby-R). -1D
Democrats will pick up
1)AZ special(Kelly-D) 0D
2)CO(Kennedy-D or Polis-D whoever does not win the Democratic Nomination for the 2018 CO Governors Race) +1D
3)GA(Abrams-D or Evans-D whoever does not win the Democratic Nomination for the 2018 GA Governors Race) +2D
4)IA(Boulton-D or Hubbell-D whoever does not win the Democratic Nomination for the 2018 IA Governors Race) +3D
5)KY(Beshear-D or Lundergan Grimes-D whoever does not win the Democratic Nomination for the 2019 KY Governors Race) +4D
6)ME(Chellie or Hannah Pingree-D)+5D
7)MS(Hood-D if he narrowly loses the 2019 MS Governors Race) +6D
8)MT(Bullock-D)+7D
9)NC(Stein-D) +8D
10)WV(Paula Jean Swearengin-D faces Don Blankenship-R who defeats Moore Capito-R in the Republican primary) +9D
2018/2020 MS US Senate Election- David Baria.
David Baria-D is the likely Democratic Nominee for the 2018 MS US Senate Race against Wicker-R. If Baria-D beats expectations and Cindy Hyde Smith-R wins the other 2018 MS US Senate Race against Espy-D and McDaniel-R, Would Baria be a candidate for the US Senate in 2020- assuming McDaniel-R challenges Hyde Smith-R in the primary?
2018 US Senate Election- 51 to 53 Democratic US Senators after 2018.
Democrats will pick up AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),TN(Bredesen-D),and TX(O'Rourke-D) but lose ND(Heitkamp-D) and MO(McCaskill-D) or
pick up AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),TN(Bredesen-D),and TX(O'Rourke-D) and hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018.
2018,2020,and 2022 US Senate Election- How Democrats regain control 2018/retain control 2020/2022?
2018
Democrats pick up
AZ(OPEN-Flake-R)Sinema-D
NV(Heller-R)Rosen-D
TN(OPEN-Corker-R)Bredesen-D
Democrats could lose
MO(McCaskill-D)
+2 to +3D 51D 49R
2020
Democrats pick up
AZ special(VACANT)Kelly-D
CO(Gardner-R)Perlmutter-D
ME(OPEN-Collins-R)Pingree-D
NC(Tillis-R) Ross-D
Democrats lose
AL(Jones-D)
+3D 54D 46R
2022-Democratic POTUS
Democrats pick up
FL(Rubio-R)Murphy-D
NC(OPEN-Burr-R) Jackson-D
PA(Toomey-R)Lamb-D
WI(OPEN-Johnson-R)Pocan-D
+4D 58D 42R
2018 US Senate Election- which US Senate Race is the Macaca (2006 VA US Senate Race)?
In 2006, the last time Democrats regained control of the US Senate, Democrats held onto every Democratic held seat up in 2006(CA,CT,DE,FL,HI,MD,MA,MI,MN,NE,NJ,NM,NY,ND,VT,WA,WV,and WI) and picked up MO,MT,OH,PA,RI,and VA. The 2006 VA US Senate Race outcome gave Democrats the majority in the US Senate.
In 2018- Democrats will pick up AZ,NV,and TN but lose ND and/or MO. TX(Cruz-R losing to O'Rourke-D) is going to give Democrats the majority in the US Senate in 2018.
If a Democrat wins the 2020 US Presidential Election, the 2022 US Senate Election is less hostile
than in the 2010 and 2014 US Senate Election during the Obama Presidency.
In 2010- Democrats lost AR,IL,IN,ND,PA,and WI. AR,IN,and ND are Solid Red states, IL was lost due to the Blagojevich scandal.
In 2014- Democrats lost AK,AR,CO,IA,LA,MT,NC,SD,and WV. AK,AR,LA,MT,SD, and WV are Solid Red States.
In 2022- There are no Democratic held US Senate seats from Red States up in 2022. AZ-if Democrats win the seat in 2018/2020 special election, CO,NV,and NH are purple States.
2018 US House Election- which seats Democrats will gain in 2018 and hold onto in 2020.
2018- Democrats will lose PA-14 -1D
Democrats will gain
0)AZ-2
1)CA-10
2)CA-25
3)CA-39
4)CA-43
5)CA-48
6)CA-49
7)CO-6
8)FL-26
9)FL-27
10)GA-6
11)IL-6
12)IL-12
13)IA-1
14)KS-2
15)KS-3
16)MI-8
17)MI-11
18)MN-2
19)MN-3
20)NE-2
21)NJ-2
22)NJ-7
23)NJ-11
24)NY-19
25)NY-22
26)PA-1
27)PA-5
28)PA-6
29)PA-7
30)PA-10
31)PA-17
32)TX-7
33)TX-23
34)TX-32
35)UT-4
36)VA-10
37)WA-8
38)WI-1
2020-Democrats will lose GA-6,IL-12,KS-2,MN-1,NY-22,PA-10,TX-7,TX-32,UT-4,and WI-1 -10D
Democrats will gain CA-21 and NY-24 -8D
Profile Information
Member since: Tue May 24, 2022, 10:37 AMNumber of posts: 8,617
