nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalUS Senate Elections in 2022 that the Democrats are most likely going to win.
37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)CT(Blumenthal-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
US Senate races in 2022 that the Democrats will win by a landslide to narrow margin.
37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)OR(Wyden-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NH(Hassan-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Mandela-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
Ranking the US Senate Races the Democrats will win in 2022 based on candidate quality.
CA(Padilla-D vs Meuser-R)
NY(Schumer-D vs Pinion-R)
HI(Schatz-D vs McDermott-R)
MD(Van Hollen-D vs Chaffee-R)
OR(Wyden-D vs Rae Perkins-R)
VT(Welch-D vs Nolan-R)
IL(Duckworth-D vs Hubbard-R)
CT(Blumenthal-D vs Klarides-R)
WA(Murray-D vs Smiley-R)
CO(Bennet-D vs O’Dea/Hanks-R)
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R)
AZ(Kelly-D vs Masters-R)
NH(Hassan-D vs Bolduc-R)
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R)
GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) Warnock’s 2022 margin of victory will be similar to his 2020 margin of victory.
WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R) Barnes benefits from Governor Tony Evers coattails.
NC(Beasley-D vs Budd-R) Budd and Beasley are generic candidates. NC is a Trump state but his margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 has decreased.
OH(Ryan-D vs Vance-R) Ryan is a stronger candidate than Vance but OH is a Trump state. Looking at Sherrod Brown’s US Senate Races. Brown won his 1st US Senate Race in 2006 against Governor Mike DeWine who was then a fairly popular US Senator by a 12 percent margin. Brown’s margin of victory in 2012 and 2018 was at 6 percent.
Ranking the US Senate Races that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a landslide to narrow margin.
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)HI(Schatz-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)CO(Bennet-D)
46)WA(Murray-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
If AZ Democrats want to replace Kyrsten Sinema. They should replace her with Kate Gallego.
The current mayor of Phoenix.
Phoenix is the largest city in AZ
Population of 1.6 million
Sinema will be replaced by a woman.
Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton don’t have to give up their US House seats if they lose.
Democrats need to gain as many US Senate seats this year in order to offset losses in 2024.
2022- There are no Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. There are 2 Biden state Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022. PA(OPEN Toomey-R) and WI(Johnson-R) Democrats are likely to pick up PA(Fetterman-D) and WI(Barnes-D). Democrats will end up with 52 seats allowing us to ignore Sinema-AZ and Manchin-WV.
2024- There are 3 Trump state Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024. MT(Tester-D),OH(Brown-D) and WV(Manchin-D). Tester and Brown will be saved by high turnout with the Democratic base. If Democrats want to replace Sinema with a Democrat, They have better chance with Kate Gallego-D. The current mayor of Phoenix and Ruben’s ex-wife. AZ will still have a female Democratic US Senator. Democratic will lose 1 seat.
2026- The battleground US Senate seats are going to be in
GA-Ossoff-D if Kemp gets re-elected in 2022 and runs for the US Senate in 2026.
ME-Collins-R if Collins retires and/or Golden is the Democratic nominee.
NC-Tillis-R if Jeff Jackson runs.
Who is likely to be the 2025 Democratic nominee for VA Governor?
US Representatives Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, or Jennifer Wexton.
Mayors Kenny Alexander or Levar Stoney.
Which US Senator will Glenn Youngkin run against?
Mark Warner-D in 2026 or Tim Kaine-D in 2030?
Glenn Youngkin-R will make the race competitive but will end up losing.
US Senate seats that the Democrats will win in 2022
37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)VT(Welch-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)
54)NC(Beasley-D)
The last Republican US Senator from
AZ- McSally-R 2020
CA- Seymour-R 1992
CO- Gardner-R 2021
CT- Weicker-R 1989
DE- Roth-R 2001
GA- Perdue-R 2021
HI- Fong-R 1977
IL- Kirk-R 2017
MD- Mathias-R 1987
MA- Brown-R 2013
MI- Abraham-R 2001
MN- Coleman-R 2009
NV- Heller-R 2019
NH- Ayotte-R 2017
NJ- Cheisa-R 2013
NM- Domenici-R 2009
NY- D’Amato-R 1999
OR- Smith-R 2009
RI- Chafee-R 2007
VT- Jeffords-R 2007
VA- J Warner-R 2009
WA- Gorton-R 2001
2023
OH- Portman-R
PA- Toomey-R
WI- Johnson-R
Last Democratic US Senator from
AL-Jones-D 2021
AK-Begich-D 2015
AR-Pryor-D 2015
FL-Nelson-D 2019
ID-Church-D 1981
IN-Donnelly-D 2019
IA-Harkin-D 2015
KS-McGill-D 1939
KY-Ford-D 1999
LA-Landrieu-D 2015
MS-Stennis-D 1989
MO-McCaskill-D 2019
NE-Nelson-D 2013
NC-Hagar-D 2015
ND-Heitkamp-D 2019
OK-Boren-D 1994
SC-Hollings-D 2005
SD-Johnson-D 2015
TN-Sasser-D 1995
TX-Krueger-D 1993
UT-Moss-D 1977
WY-McGee-D 1977
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