July 4, 2019

Did Biden just realize he has competition in the 2020 Democratic primary?

Clinching the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination might be harder than former Vice President Joe Biden thought. His first debate performance was lackluster, and recent polls show his Democratic rivals are closing in on his lead. So, he's adjusting his strategies.

Bloomberg reports that "after spending the first two months of his campaign focused on attacking President Donald Trump, the former vice president turned his attention to rivals in his own party."

Biden likely wants to highlight his own moderate positions in contrast to a field of far-left candidates, and he's starting with a hot-button issue: health care. In campaign events in Iowa this week, he defended ObamaCare and said "we can't start over" with a whole new health-care system, like Medicare-for-all, which many of his closest rivals favor.

Biden hasn't outlined his full plan yet, but "he would favor a hybrid public-private system that could help the uninsured get coverage," Bloomberg reports. On Thursday, Biden elaborated slightly:

A Morning Consult/Politico survey this week found that 55 percent of all voters support a Medicare-for-all system that reduces the role of private insurers — so long as they get to keep their preferred providers. Among Democrats, the approval was at 78 percent.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/851212/did-joe-biden-just-realize-competition-2020-democratic-primary-

July 4, 2019

Warren: Trump's 4th of July Parade Is a Campaign Event

Elizabeth Warren Says Trump's 4th of July Celebration Is a 'Campaign Event' That 'Should Be Paid for by His Campaign Contributions'

President Donald Trump will hold his "Salute to America" event in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, debuting his own take on Fourth of July celebrations.

Despite the high costs of the parade, fears of damage caused by heavy military vehicles and the authoritarian connotations of such a spectacle, Trump is plowing full speed ahead with his "great celebratory military parade."
Nonetheless, his critics have been in full voice. Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren added her condemnation of the event on Wednesday night, telling a CNN reporter that the "Salute to America" is really more of a salute to Trump.
VIP guests at the event—many of whom are Republican operatives and big-ticket donors to the party—will be seated in a cordoned off area around the Lincoln Memorial. From here, they will be able to watch in comfort as jets, bombers and helicopters roar over Washington.

They will be right in front of Trump as the president delivers his speech. Though Trump has said his address will honor the U.S. military, it would be uncharacteristic if he did not use the opportunity to score political points, leaning on the military to boost his image while denigrating his opponents.

All things considered, Warren argued that the public should not be footing the bill for the "Salute to America."
"Trump is handing out tickets to his big donors," she told CNN reporter MJ Lee. "That's a campaign event. And if he's going to do a campaign event, then it should be paid for by his campaign contributions."

https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-donald-trump-fourth-july-celebration-campaign-event-contributions-1447503

July 4, 2019

A Democratic Woman Candidate Will Beat Trump in 2020

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by over three million votes and would be President right now except for blatant Russian interference in the election.

Yet this year we have been barraged with articles by pundits claiming a woman can't possibly win the 2020 Presidential race.

Well, the pundits are wrong. The results of HEAD-to-HEAD polling puts this ridiculous claim to rest.

Looking back over the last 4-5 weeks, we see Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris BOTH defeating Trump.

Tuesday, June 25 Emerson Poll :
Warren 53, Trump 47
Harris 52, Trump 48

Sunday, June 16 Fox News Poll :
Warren 43, Trump 41
Harris 42, Trump 41

Tuesday, June 11 Quinnipiac Poll :
Warren 49, Trump 42
Harris 49, Trump 41

Friday, May 24 Rassmusen Reports Poll:
Warren 46, Trump 44

Friday, May 17 Fox News Poll :
Warren 43, Trump 41
Harris 41, Trump 41

Tuesday, May 14 Emerson Poll :
Warren 52, Trump 49
Harris 51, Trump 49

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/

July 4, 2019

Warren, Harris surge into tie with Biden in new Iowa poll

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) have surged into a virtual tie with former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa after last week’s debates, according to a new survey conducted for a Democratic group.

The poll, conducted by Democratic pollster David Binder for the group Focus on Rural America, shows Warren leading the field with 20 percent of the vote, a statistical tie with Harris at 18 percent and Biden at 17 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is just off the podium at 12 percent, closely trailed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) clocks in at 4 percent, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) scores 2 percent. Ten other candidates each notch 1 percent support in the Hawkeye State.

The poll shows Warren and Harris both doubling their support following strong performances in last week’s debate, while Biden and Sanders have slipped. In the group’s March poll, Biden led the field with 25 percent support, followed by Sanders at 17 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/451520-warren-harris-surge-into-tie-with-biden-in-new-iowa-poll

July 3, 2019

Is Biden suffering from Hearing Loss?

Hear me out on this, pun intended.

In another thread a Biden supporter raised this point, noting that Biden seemed to be hesitant in raising his hand when a question was asked, much like they do themselves do because they have some hearing loss.

This would explain Biden's otherwise inexplicable answer to the question, and I paraphrase:

"What would be the first thing you would do as President".

In the debate, Biden responded "Defeat Donald Trump", to much ridicule later by pundits.

Also, consider the fact that Biden did not participate in the Spin Room throng after the debate. I suffer some hearing loss myself, and find it very hard to hear conversations when there is a lot of loud background noise, as occurs in the Spin Room.

So, did Biden not participate in the Spin Room because of a similar problem hearing?

If he is suffering hearing loss, shouldn't he just wear a hearing aid?

Many many people do. or is there too much of a stigma attached to a 76 year old Presidential candidate wearing a hearing aid or something?

Hearing loss is the kindest possible explanation I have heard yet that would explain Biden's apparent confusion at times on stage during the debate.

July 3, 2019

Vote for a candidate you are confidant can beat Trump.

Many people have said they want our nominee to be the person who has the "best" chance of beating Trump.

What polls will we use to determine who can "best" beat Trump?

The Emerson Poll of June 25th shows Sanders and Biden have identical chances of beating Trump:

Sanders 55, Trump 45
Biden 55, Trump 45

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/

So if the only criteria is who can "best" defeat Trump, Sanders should be given equal consideration to Biden. Good luck trying to sell that argument here on DU

That poll, and others, also show other candidates beating Trump.

6 Democrats would beat Trump if the election were held today, according to a new national poll
https://www.businessinsider.com/six-democrats-beat-trump-if-election-held-today-new-poll-2019-6

But do these polls tell us who can "best" defeat Trump? And aren't polls jumping all over the place?

I have already seen a few DU-ers saying the it doesn't matter who the National Polls show can best defeat trump, we need to look at polls only in swing states. And then the discussion starts about which states are swing states and which candidates can bring other states into play.

So, my personal approach is not to quibble over which candidate can "best" defeat Trump

I will vote for the candidate that I am confidant can beat Trump and whose positions most agree with my values.

July 3, 2019

Sorry all, I misread and posted incorrectly about a poll

Earlier today I posted an op "asking" if the latest ABCNews/WashPost was ratf*cked by Republican responders.

By "asking" I mean jumping up and down insisting it was.

Well I was wrong. So. Wrong. Flat out wrong.

I misread the Methodology section, and yeah the line break messed with my poor eyesight, but I rushed to post what I mistakenly thought was the poll being 37% Republican Independent responders.

Again, that was just flat out wrong.

Thanks to all of the people that replied, very politely, and pointed out my mistake. To be honest, you all were nicer to me when correcting my mistake than I have been to other people at times. I will work on that.

July 2, 2019

Which pairings would you like to see in the 2nd debate?

I would really like to see Joe Biden on stage with Elizabeth Warren and Bill De Blasio.

July 1, 2019

Some perspective on early leads in the polls

From the 2007 Democratic Primary campaigns:

Rasmussen Reports Poll
June 25–28, 2007

Hillary Clinton 39%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards 13%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 0%, Undecided 9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries


President Obama did not lead in any national poll until Feb 1-3 2008.

To date, in 2019 no candidate has broken away from the field. The 2020 nomination remains wide open.

June 30, 2019

Barack Obama in the 2007 Primary

President Obama did not take the lead in ANY major poll until Feb1-3 2008.

He did not start taking the lead permanently in all major polls until March 13-14 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

So, calm down. Stop declaring winners and losers.

No consensus candidate has indisputably emerged yet.