November 9, 2023

Is the alleged Republican presidential "frontrunner" really the frontrunner?

Or is he scamming the polls to appear that way? Or buying them? That's not out of the range of possibility at all.

Of course, those who are appearing on stage in debates are hardly better.

This is a fixation with him. He braggs about the size of crowds at his rallies where the empty seats outnumber the participants and they've squeezed half the crowd and a third of the staff into bleachers behind him. They cancelled one appearance in Iowa after a prior appearance at some county fair pavilion had a crowd that looked like a bebe in a cannon.

Has anyone credible actually been able to verify the polling data?

This is a man whose whole persona is an image. It's certainly open to consideration.

November 9, 2023

Is the media deliberately suppressing Biden achievements and emphasizing "Doom and Gloom"?

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-media-suppression-of-biden.html

All day Tuesday, I had to avoid the temptation to click on news sites just to see if anyone had any predictions, news, or insights as to how key elections were going in the states that got a lot of publicity. American politics is quite predictable, and in spite of polling data that is not very consistent, and reflects an "all over the place" kind of feeling, at least until election day, and accountability, draws close. After the weekend news about the poll results that came out, I was anxious about what might transpire in the elections that Democrats were pointing to as indicators of where things are headed in 2024, and not wanting to engage with Republicans who would be gloating over wins.

But whatever anxiety I might have had, it was relieved very quickly by Tuesday's election results.

Long before bedtime, it became apparent that the news about the weekend polls would be covered up and largely discredited by some whopping Democratic party election wins. Pollsters, and the news media, had cast a shadow of doubt over this off-year election, at least as far as Democrats are concerned, and made an effort to associate what they are claiming is the Biden Administration's unpopularity with potential Republican victories in key elections. In spite of their attempts, nothing resembling the gloom and doom they tried to spread over the weekend showed up in those election results. In Kentucky and Ohio, red states in the last several elections, Democrats won big. I was concerned, again mainly from news reporting, that Virginia might not deliver. And I wasn't expecting much from Mississippi, where we got better news than one might think in a Democratic candidate's loss. But by the time Lawrence O'Donnell came on at 9, Virginia was in the bag and Mississippi, well it's Mississippi, but it turned out much better for Democrats than it has in a long time, proving that there's potential, even there.

So this gloom and doom reporting, harping about Biden's age, coming up with unbelievable polling data and then promoting that while ignoring anything that doesn't fit that narrative (including ignoring a marketing poll in Arizona that has Biden with a ten point lead there) looks like a deliberate attempt to undermine his candidacy.

November 9, 2023

Is the media deliberately suppressing Biden's accomplishments and promoting "Doom and Gloom"?

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-media-suppression-of-biden.html

All day Tuesday, I had to avoid the temptation to click on news sites just to see if anyone had any predictions, news, or insights as to how key elections were going in the states that got a lot of publicity. American politics is quite predictable, and in spite of polling data that is not very consistent, and reflects an "all over the place" kind of feeling, at least until election day, and accountability, draws close. After the weekend news about the poll results that came out, I was anxious about what might transpire in the elections that Democrats were pointing to as indicators of where things are headed in 2024, and not wanting to engage with Republicans who would be gloating over wins.

But whatever anxiety I might have had, it was relieved very quickly by Tuesday's election results.

Long before bedtime, it became apparent that the news about the weekend polls would be covered up and largely discredited by some whopping Democratic party election wins. Pollsters, and the news media, had cast a shadow of doubt over this off-year election, at least as far as Democrats are concerned, and made an effort to associate what they are claiming is the Biden Administration's unpopularity with potential Republican victories in key elections. In spite of their attempts, nothing resembling the gloom and doom they tried to spread over the weekend showed up in those election results. In Kentucky and Ohio, red states in the last several elections, Democrats won big. I was concerned, again mainly from news reporting, that Virginia might not deliver. And I wasn't expecting much from Mississippi, where we got better news than one might think in a Democratic candidate's loss. But by the time Lawrence O'Donnell came on at 9, Virginia was in the bag and Mississippi, well it's Mississippi, but it turned out much better for Democrats than it has in a long time, proving that there's potential, even there.

So this gloom and doom reporting, harping about Biden's age, coming up with unbelievable polling data and then promoting that while ignoring anything that doesn't fit that narrative (including ignoring a marketing poll in Arizona that has Biden with a ten point lead there) looks like a deliberate attempt to undermine his candidacy.

November 8, 2023

A Lawyer's Reasoning on why polling data right now is bogus

https://pricebenowitz.com/blog/the-truth-about-polling-averages-and-how-misleading-they-are/

Marketing companies have the right to grab publicity. The surest way to get free publicity is to release a poll within two months of a presidential election. It hardly matters if the poll is accurate, because somebody will publish it.

Bad polls are put into polling averages and laundered like dirty money. The publicity encourages pollsters to produce numbers, certain that they too will get national attention if they call 600 people or say they do. Averaging polls gets publicity for those who average the polls. We won’t learn until 6 months from now who was right, if anyone bothers to look back.

Yet some in these polls must be wrong, even as the averages are used to make everyone look right. The average also creates a statistical bias towards a close race, which may or may not be correct, because it has to be based on some false data.

As I write this there are two recent polls on Arizona. One sponsored by a national broadcasting company, the other by an Arizona firm. Once says Biden is up 52-42 in Arizona. The other says Biden 47-44. Both were conducted over about the same period of time. Both will be “averaged” into various services. Both cannot be right.

November 7, 2023

I don't think bombing and destroying one of the world's most impoverished places will solve Israel's security problems

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/some-initiative-can-end-this-tragedy.html

The Hamas terrorist attack on Israel October 7th was a horrific and inexcusable terrorist attack that should subject its perpetrators to justice. Going after them, finding them, and bringing them to Israel to face that justice is justified. It's not being anti-Semitic to ask whether what is happening to Gaza right now is the best way to do that. It's certainly covering up the sympathy for Israel that the initial attack generated.

There is no going back. So, for the sake of peace, something we claim to value along with the sanctity of human life, there must be a reasonable way to stop these senseless attacks on Israel and on the Palestinians, and make peace. Terrorism must be outlawed and brought to justice, and neutralized by taking away the conditions that have perpetuated it and led it to be welcomed as an ally and a rescue operation. The rest of the world must be brought to an understanding of this. Senator Bernie Sanders, and political commentator Santita Jackson both insist that Israel's security is tied to Palestinian justice. I tend to think that's the case.

This will take a long, long time. In the meantime, someone must broker a cease-fire and use the means available to preserve the peace. The United States has that kind of power. It is time to use it to save lives.

November 6, 2023

No hand-wringing or panic, but caution and good responses to weekend polling.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/follow-up-on-weekend-polling-data-no.html

I have confidence that the Biden campaign staff, the President himself, and the Democratic party, are looking at all of this, analyzing it and figuring out how to approach the data they consider credible. Personally, I will do everything I can do, from blogging and promoting the blog, to engaging on social media, to talking to people, to making phone calls, knocking on doors and committing a percentage of my income to campaign donations, to make sure that Biden gets a second term, and the Democrats get control of of both houses. We can't let up and we have to make the right choices. There's too much at stake.

Part of that process means taking a look at what is happening, being realistic about it, and changing what needs to be changed.

I would like to see the Biden Administration, hard upon this news, become more pro-active in reaching out and resolving problems that are election sticking points. That would give those of us who are big supporters a measure of much needed confidence right about now. Trump has nothing to offer any of the constituencies where there is apparent erosion of support for Biden at the moment. They're not turning to Trump, they're asking for another Democrat to be the candidate. And the message I see in that is for Biden to become the other Democrat they're looking for.

November 6, 2023

No hand-wringing or panic, but caution and good responses to weekend polling.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/follow-up-on-weekend-polling-data-no.html

I have confidence that the Biden campaign staff, the President himself, and the Democratic party, are looking at all of this, analyzing it and figuring out how to approach the data they consider credible. Personally, I will do everything I can do, from blogging and promoting the blog, to engaging on social media, to talking to people, to making phone calls, knocking on doors and committing a percentage of my income to campaign donations, to make sure that Biden gets a second term, and the Democrats get control of of both houses. We can't let up and we have to make the right choices. There's too much at stake.

Part of that process means taking a look at what is happening, being realistic about it, and changing what needs to be changed.

I would like to see the Biden Administration, hard upon this news, become more pro-active in reaching out and resolving problems that are election sticking points. That would give those of us who are big supporters a measure of much needed confidence right about now. Trump has nothing to offer any of the constituencies where there is apparent erosion of support for Biden at the moment. They're not turning to Trump, they're asking for another Democrat to be the candidate. And the message I see in that is for Biden to become the other Democrat they're looking for.

November 6, 2023

Weekend polls are a wake up call for Democrats.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/weekend-polls-are-wake-up-call-for.html
Four years of a Trump Presidency would be a dictatorship of white supremacist Christian nationalism. That's the only way to describe it. The Constitution would be a worthless scrap of paper, as would be the individual rights of any American who was not white, rich and conservative. Crime would be a matter of definition, and those who have committed crimes against humanity and against the Constitution would be in charge. Convincing Americans this is where things were headed after Trump's first election, and where they would go if he ever gets back in the White House is the task at hand. I hope there are people in the party who see this, are up for it, and are willing to make this an ongoing theme.

All that Democrats identify as wrong with House Speaker Mike Johnson's ideology and approach to governing is exactly what we will get if Trump is elected.

Pollsters right now can say and do as they please, knowing accountability is a year away. That's why the polls "tighten up" in the weeks before election day, the final poll numbers have to come in line with election results. But this weekend's polls, showing Trump leading Biden and giving some hints as to what people are perceiving, need to be a wake up call to Democrats. Otherwise, what we get will look like everything on Mike Johnson's agenda. And that won't be good. Come on Democrats, we cannot lose the 2024 election and everyone will have to work to prevent a loss.

November 6, 2023

Weekend polls are a wake up call for Democrats.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/weekend-polls-are-wake-up-call-for.html
Four years of a Trump Presidency would be a dictatorship of white supremacist Christian nationalism. That's the only way to describe it. The Constitution would be a worthless scrap of paper, as would be the individual rights of any American who was not white, rich and conservative. Crime would be a matter of definition, and those who have committed crimes against humanity and against the Constitution would be in charge. Convincing Americans this is where things were headed after Trump's first election, and where they would go if he ever gets back in the White House is the task at hand. I hope there are people in the party who see this, are up for it, and are willing to make this an ongoing theme.

All that Democrats identify as wrong with House Speaker Mike Johnson's ideology and approach to governing is exactly what we will get if Trump is elected.

Pollsters right now can say and do as they please, knowing accountability is a year away. That's why the polls "tighten up" in the weeks before election day, the final poll numbers have to come in line with election results. But this weekend's polls, showing Trump leading Biden and giving some hints as to what people are perceiving, need to be a wake up call to Democrats. Otherwise, what we get will look like everything on Mike Johnson's agenda. And that won't be good. Come on Democrats, we cannot lose the 2024 election and everyone will have to work to prevent a loss.

November 3, 2023

Israeli Security is tied to Palestinian Justice

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/11/israeli-security-is-tied-to-palestinian.html

Bernie Sanders also puts this idea into understandable terms. "For the sake of the Palestinian people, and for the people of Israel, we must create a process which ends the hatred, the cycle of violence, and allows all to live in peace and security," he said.

Santita Jackson, daughter of civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, said pretty much the same thing.

This starts with us, here, at home.