TheProle
TheProle's JournalBiden holds an edge this November, per Allan Lichtman's analysis of 13 historical predictors
For now, anyway.
Five of the 13 historical predictors of victory favor Biden, while three favor Trump, and the rest are still up for grabs, Lichtman told MarketWatch in an interview.
That leaves the Democrats praying that foreign policy and the economy will go the president’s way in the months ahead — and that there isn’t a strong third-party campaign.
Lichtman, now 77, coined the “Keys to the White House” phrase in a popular book first published in the early 1980s. These “keys” consist of 13 indicators that supposedly determine the outcomes of presidential elections. Lichtman argues they have held good since at least 1860.
At one notable moment in recent history, the “keys” predicted Donald Trump’s victory in November 2016 — against all the conventional wisdom and most polling.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/conventional-wisdom-said-trump-couldnt-win-in-2016-this-historians-keys-said-he-would-what-are-those-keys-telling-us-today-4562126e
Authoritarianism welcomed back in El Salvador
El Salvador President Bukele poised for a landslide as voters cast ballots
Bukele, 42, appears poised to become the first Salvadoran president in almost a century to be re-elected.
Wildly popular, Bukele has campaigned on the success of his security strategy under which authorities suspended civil liberties to arrest more than 75,000 Salvadorans without charges. The detentions led to a sharp decline in nationwide murder rates and transformed a country of 6.3 million people that was once among the world's most dangerous.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-el-salvador-president-bukele-145801785.html
While we are wringing our hands incessantly about creeping authoritarianism in the US, many other nations are telling us to hold their beer…
My mega blockbuster thread (172 views, 1 reply) on why we should probably keep an eye on other elections as well…
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218564906
Zelensky set to announce dismissal of Ukraine's top commander within days as rift grows over war, source says
Source: CNN
Kyiv, Ukraine
CNN
—
Ukraine’s popular army chief Valery Zaluzhny was called to a meeting at the president’s office on Monday and told he was being fired, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN, following weeks of growing speculation over tensions between Volodymyr Zelensky and his top commander.
A formal announcement has not been made, meaning Zaluzhny was still in post as of Wednesday evening, however, a presidential decree is expected by the end of the week, one of the sources told CNN, in what would be the biggest military shakeup by Zelensky since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago.
Rumors of the meeting, and Zaluzhny’s dismissal, exploded around Kyiv on Monday evening, lent credibility by a rift widely understood to have opened up between the president and his commander-in-chief following the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year.
Tensions are said to have risen in particular when Zaluzhny described the war with Russia as a stalemate, in an interview and essay with The Economist magazine in November.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html
Iran Warns It Will Retaliate After Biden Says He's Decided How To Respond To Killing Of 3 U.S. Soldiers
An Iranian official on Tuesday night warned that the country will retaliate against any attack, hours after President Joe Biden said he has made a decision on how to respond to the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/01/31/iran-says-any-attack-will-face-retaliation-after-biden-says-us-response-to-killing-of-soldiers-has-been-decided/?sh=3391efad6fc9
Scoop: State Department reviewing options for possible recognition of Palestinian state
Source: Axios
Secretary of State Tony Blinken asked the State Department to conduct a review and present policy options on possible U.S. and international recognition of a Palestinian state after the war in Gaza, two U.S. officials briefed on the issue told Axios.
Why it matters: While U.S. officials say there has been no policy change, the fact the State Department is even considering such options signals a shift in thinking within the Biden administration on possible Palestinian statehood recognition, which is highly sensitive both internationally and domestically.
For decades, U.S. policy has been to oppose the recognition of Palestine as a state both bilaterally and in UN institutions and to stress Palestinian statehood should only be achieved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Yes but: Efforts to find a diplomatic way out of the war in Gaza has opened the door for rethinking a lot of old U.S. paradigms and policies, a senior U.S. official said.
Read more: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war
Three US troops killed, up to 34 injured in Jordan drone strike linked to Iran
Biden blamed Iran-backed groups for the attack, the first deadly strike against U.S. forces since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October and sent shock waves throughout the Middle East.
"While we are still gathering the facts of this attack, we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq," Biden said in a statement.
"Have no doubt - we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing," he said.
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-says-three-us-members-164810010.html
EU Parliament will see far-right surge at election, study says
"This could have significant implications for the EU Commission and Council's ability to take forward environmental and foreign policy commitments, including the next phase of the European Green Deal," said Dr Kevin Cunningham, co-author of the study.
According to the ECFR's predictions, anti-European populists are expected to top the polls in nine member states: Austria, Belgium, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, while they are also likely to come second or third in a further nine EU countries.
Forecasts for 2024 show that the two biggest winners will be the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, with almost 100 MEPs (an increase of 40 seats), and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), with 85 MEPs (an increase of 14 seats).
https://euobserver.com/eu-elections/157959
Sundance Shut Down: Pro-Palestinian Protest Closes Main Street; Melissa Barrera Among Demonstrators
Marching halfway up Park City’s Main Street in the snow, the protesters were under heavy police surveillance and swarmed by media. With the huge media spotlight that Sundance attracts every year, capturing the attention of cameras and reporters were clearly part of the purpose of the demo Sunday.
Slamming the Biden administration’s stance on Israel and strong allegiance with the Jewish State over the horrors of Hamas’ murderous attack on Israel on Oct. 7, protestors recycled an old anti-Vietnam War chant. With signs in the crowd calling President Biden a “butcher, demonstrators screamed: “Genocide Joe, what do you say? How many kids did you kill today?”
https://deadline.com/2024/01/melissa-barrera-pro-palestinian-protest-sundance-1235799589/
Gallup: Independent Party ID Tied for High; Democratic ID at New Low
https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx
Comparatives:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078383/political-party-identification-in-the-us/
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/17/poll-americans-independent-republican-democrat
Is the President properly articulating a plan to restore reproductive rights?
The back-in-the-saddle Jezebel has posted a critique of President Biden's messaging on abortion, in response to this...
https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1745280353126789161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1745280353126789161%7Ctwgr%5E6d0cbd90702e42fe8b9d0d7bda0349b67337542f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fjezebel.com%2Fembed%2Finset%2Fiframe%3Fid%3Dtwitter-1745280353126789161autosize%3D1
Kylie Cheung has this to say:
Abortion is a winning issue: Polls show broad bipartisan support for abortion rights. Candidates even in deep red states like Kentucky have won their races by vocally championing abortion rights. Every single abortion rights ballot measure since Roe fell, from Kansas to Ohio, has won decisively. Of course Biden wants to align himself with this—but he’s yet to show any willingness to actually do the work, fight, push, and get his hands dirty to meaningfully help us.
https://jezebel.com/it-s-not-enough-for-biden-to-say-trump-bad-on-abortio-1851160170
So let's put it to a poll:
Is the President properly articulating a plan to restore reproductive rights?
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