April 4, 2024

Fed signals no rate cuts this year... DOW down 500+

Stock market today: Stocks slide after Fedspeak as oil surges, March jobs report on deck

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-stocks-slide-after-fedspeak-as-oil-surges-march-jobs-report-on-deck-200259217.html

Stocks slumped on Thursday as oil hit its highest price in six months and a key Federal Reserve official floated a warning that interest rate cuts might not come in 2024.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell almost 1.4%, or 550 points while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 1.4%. This marked the S&P 500's worst single-day drop since Feb. 13.

All three major averages reversed strong midday gains after Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year if inflation progress stalls. The positive market action also paused amid a spike in oil prices.

Not cutting rates would be devastating in an election year... inflation is stuck and home affordability is an issue.

Couple that with rising oil prices and continuing wars...

April 4, 2024

Great News... No Labels not fielding a 3rd Party challenger in 2024.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/04/no-labels-2024-presidential-campaign-cancelled

The centrist political group No Labels is dropping plans to put forward a third-party ticket in November, Axios confirmed Thursday.

Why it matters: It's a huge shake-up to the 2024 presidential race. Democrats were concerned that the group's plans to run a "unity ticket" could siphon votes from President Biden's re-election bid.

April 4, 2024

Lots of people talking or asking about "Shorting" DJT/Truth Social

It's not that easy.

Some might think... short now and pile the cash all the way down.

Doesn't work that way.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240403272/why-shorting-trumps-djt-stock-could-cost-you-500

Keep in mind that to short a stock - the act of selling a stock without owning it on the expectation it can be bought back later at a lower price - that stock first has to be borrowed from someone who owns it and is willing and able to lend it. The fewer shares there are available to borrow, the higher the cost to borrow them.

"There is very little stock available to borrow to support new short selling - less than 50,000 shares - and with demand to short this stock extremely high, we are seeing stock-borrow rates at 500% to 600% fee levels," Dusaniwsky told MarketWatch on Tuesday.

Based on that data, to short 100 DJT shares at their current price, it would cost between $24,895 to $29,874 a year. That means the stock would have to fall about 1.4% a day just to cover the cost to short it. And if the short was held for a year, the bet would still lose about $20,000 to $25,000 even if the stock fell to $1. Basically, you can be very right and still lose a lot of money.

Given the cost and the fact that there are "no sizable stock borrows available to support new short sales," Dusaniwsky said he believes "there can be no new selling pressure brought on by short sellers."Keep in mind that to short a stock - the act of selling a stock without owning it on the expectation it can be bought back later at a lower price - that stock first has to be borrowed from someone who owns it and is willing and able to lend it. The fewer shares there are available to borrow, the higher the cost to borrow them.

The risks are immense. And the return is minimal. Only 50k shares available for borrowing... that's just $2.4m in shares. The fees are sky high.

And...

A short squeeze is more likely in the short term.

You see... it's a very low volume stock. Around 3-4m shares per day. Shorts can be burnt to the ground easily... And institutional investor, like the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund can send this to 100/share with just a few million dollars a day in purchases for a week or so.

And when short sellers get burnt... it's painful. Shorts lost BILLIONS in the GME fiasco in 21.

Fortunately that can't happen here because there are only 50k shares available to short.

April 3, 2024

Zelenskyy signs law lowering age limit for conscription to 25

The AFU is fielding an army with an average age in the 40's... but as they run low of troops, they need more young soldiers. Previously, this has been controversial and the gov't hasn't aggressively pursued those in their 20's who don't show up for duty.

As Russia gains ground the pressure is on to grow the forces...



https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1775229095938253166?s=20

March 30, 2024

US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries

White House concerned about Election year oil prices skyrocketing.

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c

“Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.

March 30, 2024

Possibly more disturbing than the Biden truck tailgate decal...

When I read the headlines I wanted to see what was up. So I googled.

Found out that it's common for retailers to sell these vinyl decals that adhere to a truck tailgate that fool people into thinking something is in the bed.

Some are funny.

Most are disgusting. There are dozens for sale that show women tied and gagged, some wearing sexy clothing, some with tussled hair... total rape and kidnapping connotation.

I won't link them but it's testament to the depraved state of mind SOME folks live with...

You see, the chance of anyone kidnapping POTUS is nil... but women are raped and or kidnapped daily. And this seems to either condone it or make it funny.

terrible.

March 27, 2024

Why I don't grave dance...

After the passing of RBG... I saw the interwebz littered with knuckle dragging troglodytes talking trash about her...

A really good hearted and kind woman who served her country loyally...

If partisanship can make people so... inhuman...

I'll pass.

March 26, 2024

The irony... the same week #DonPoorleone was trending... for the first time EVER, Trump makes Bloomberg's Top 500

Decades of being a real estate shyster, errr... mogul...

And he never made the Bloomberg list.

Now launches a rather worthless social media site with probably no more users than DU... and doubles his net worth.

*however... I think the "on paper" value of DJT is purely based on his running for POTUS and winning. I don't think ANYONE can imagine this ticker surviving a November loss.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/donald-trump-joins-list-of-worlds-biggest-billionaires-boosted-by-truth-social-stake-report-c0a742b8

Former President Donald Trump has joined the ranks of the biggest billionaires in the world, thanks largely to his stake in a social-media company that soared on its first day of trading.

Trump’s net worth has surged this week, qualifying him for a spot on Bloomberg’s Billionaires list, the news outlet reported late Monday. It calculated his net worth at roughly $6.5 billion.

March 25, 2024

On an otherwise DOWN DAY on the market... Trump stock gains 40+%

Like I was saying last week... DWAC, soon to be DJT will serve as the next major slush fund for Trump.

Bottom line: Trump owns 79,000,000 shares...

When the stock goes up by $1, his net worth "on paper" goes up by $79,000,000

Earnings don't matter... or lack thereof...

As of today, Trump's stake in the company is 79 million x around 52/share...

Or 4+ billion dollars.

And it's all legal. Nothing illegal about ANYONE in the world buying US stocks.

I guaran-damn-tee you that the Saudis and probably the Russians are buying the stock.

March 25, 2024

Just my own thoughts on WHY so many people are frustrated and shocked today...

And the answer is my favorite topic.

Misinformation from pundits.

"Massive judgement DEVASTATES Trump Organization"

"In my 40 year career, never seen a more open and shut case..."

"A career wrecking prosecution... he's done"

"Donald Poorleone"...






One more time. TV, digital and print media sources EXIST to make money.

Fox News doesn't make MONEY when THEIR AUDIENCE hears bad news about TRUMP.

And MSNBC loses money when they take it easy on Trump.

Thus...

These media outlets hire CONTENT CREATORS who might be former US prosecutors with a shady history... or Harvard professors... or even a Twitter lawyer with her name in her username...

These content creators are NOT paid to provide expert advice and discussion on complicated topics like the legal system

In reality they're no different than the Doctors who sell boner pills on late night TV commercials... they use their name and title to lend legitimacy to what they're selling.

Anyway, I have to get back to my stock market trading... a busy day today. Just wanted to share these thoughts.

In conclusion, don't believe what you see on TV or the internet... it's ALWAYS about the money.