Conor Kennedy, the grandson of RFK, has fought in Ukraine.

Prof. Phillips Peyson O'Brien's Sunday update on Ukraine

Daily Kos update on Russia fleeing Kherson Province:

The situation appears to be rapidly changing.

Ukraine update: In Kherson 'organized withdrawal of troops of the first line is impossible'
Image of Mark Sumner, author
by Mark Sumner
Daily Kos Staff
Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 4:02:11p EDT


Over the course of the day, these withdrawals appear to have become evident on the front lines. There are multiple reports of abandoned Russian positions, some of which have even been confirmed by the Ukrainian general staff (which is usually reluctant to report anything happening near the actual front line). It’s possible that the front line in Kherson is simply collapsing. That may be particularly true if those reports that the line has been replaced by inexperienced and recently mobilized troops. As soon as those guys no longer had someone holding a gun to their back, running away likely seemed like a Real Good Thing.

Ferries are reportedly doing frequent and rapid trips across the river on Saturday night in Ukraine, with Russians hoping to get as much across they can, while keeping an eye out for incoming HIMARS fire.

As Wagner Group Telegram channel GrayZone puts it: “The situation is even worse than in the Kharkiv region after the breakthrough to Balakliya. In fact, the implementation of an organized withdrawal of troops of the first line is impossible.”

GrayZone worked this into a lengthy post that included such stirring phrases as “a tale of the city of the Scythian sun has not yet sounded in our ears, but the air has already been saturated with a familiar unpleasant aftertaste that leaves a lump in the throat.” That could be Google Translate straining at the seams. Or a lot of vodka. In any case, they also took this opportunity to complain about Russian leadership wasting drones on civilian targets, and to metaphorically roll their eyes at the scheme to blow the Nova Kakhovka dam then blame it on Ukraine. Because nobody, not even pro-Russian military bloggers, would buy that story.

Every single source now seems to expect that the end of Russian occupation in Kherson isn’t going to be measured in weeks or months. It’s a matter of days. How many days is the only question. And it’s not going to be an orderly withdrawal with Russian tanks all neatly ferried across the Dnipro. It’s going to end with Russian forces clawing, or maybe shooting, to get that last spot on board.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/22/2130577/-Ukraine-update-In-Kherson-organized-withdrawal-of-troops-of-the-first-line-is-impossible

Here's a link to all of Prof. Snyder's extant lectures on The Making of Modern Ukraine

Ukraine's operational silence is broken. The Russians are fleeing NW Kherson!

Meanwhile, at the Chinese Communist Party Congress:

The Jan 6 Oath keepers trial

I've been following it on twitter. I guess it's about half way through the state's case. This guy is a good one to follow, very detailed about testimony:

https://twitter.com/rparloff/status/1583085677041754113

To be frank, I'm not sure the case is going all that great for the government or at least it's not unfolding the way I thought it might.
The OK doesn't seem to have any contact with people in TFG's office that I have heard. They went to DC in hopes trump would declare martial law, which he never did, and were upset that he didn't. The first and only cooperating witness so far (there will be others) said he was surprised to hear people entered the capital. There wasn't any evidence of a plan in advance to storm the capital. No evidence that the OK took the lead in the initial assault. A lot of evidence of communications but not too much about specific plans. That's my take anyway
Still we're only half way thru. More to come.

Ukraine is using M30A1 shells.

I mentioned this a week or two ago. It is a shell that explodes in the air maybe 20 or 30 feet above a target. It unleashes 200000 tungsten steel fragments that rain death on the fixed infantry positions the shell is aimed at.
I don't post violent videos usually but here's a drone video of the M30A1 in action. I guess I'm putting it up just because I've grown to hate Putin and his vile army.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1583097916243070979

Yale Prof Timothy Snyder, Class 12 The Making of Modern Ukraine

Reports of heavy gunfights inside Kherson City

This guy is considered to be quite accurate.
Russians shooting each other? Partisan fighters? Something else? Now you know as much as I do.


https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1582863900847968256