FL-GOV: What is Gillum's path to victory?

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Very good summary

For reference purposes, the Florida exit polls from 2014 and 2016:

* 2014 midterm: 40% self-identified conservatives, 22% liberals
* 2016 presidency: 36% self-identified conservatives, 25% liberals.

At face value that's a shift of 3-4% each way, but keep in mind 2014 was a heavy GOP advantage nationwide. That won't apply to 2018 which figures to be a Democratic slant. So although I'm not sure we can have a 36/25 split like a Florida presidential norm, it shouldn't be too far away. And not out of the question it does resemble a presidential ideological share.

If so, then Gillum has a huge chance. Trump only managed 48.6% in Florida. Never lose sight of those numbers. The guy won despite 46% nationwide and in one pivotal state after another he did not reach 50%. If the Republican candidates mirror the Trump slice then one after another is going down. Scott only managed 48% during reelection in 2014. It's not as if these Florida Republicans have been establishing 53 or 55% and we have to shove them down a half dozen points or more.

Otherwise, racism may not be a prevalent as misogyny. I mentioned in the Florida forum two weeks ago that the white nutcases I have known for 35 years dating to Las Vegas are more accepting of voting for a scandal plagued black male than a traditional white woman. It sounds out of whack but that's the way they think. Women in positions of power are threatening to them.

Besides, the white split has been like 68-32 recently. How much lower can it go? I view it like Trump approval rating. We may wish that into the 20s but it's not happening. Likewise I'm sure right wingers wish and believe that Democratic white split into the 20s. It's not happening. If a charismatic well spoken guy like Gillum runs a solid campaign and connects with the working class whites willing to listen, he may gain a couple of unexpected points.

Keep in mind that most voters expected Hillary to win in 2016. There is kind of an under reported reflexive desire to split government. So many of those voters who ended up with Trump in 2016 without much conviction could easily shift back to Democrats in statewide and federal races in 2018, likewise without much conviction but it simply feels like the right thing to do. Not all of this is ultra sophisticated. I know that from hosting debate watching parties for many years and listening carefully to all the discussions. That split government theme came up all the time, far more often than it is touted on political programs.

Also, Hispanics need to show up. They were 18% of the Florida electorate in 2016 but only 13% during the 2014 midterm. That difference accounted for the white share at 69% in 2014 compared to 62% in Florida 2016. Blacks were 14% each time.

Hispanic women were 10% of the Florida vote in 2016 but only 6% in 2014. They outnumbered Hispanic males in 2016 but were lower than Hispanic males in 2014. And that is representative of our biggest problem by far in midterms every time -- Democratic leaning women simply don't bother to show up, especially young single women.