General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: FL-GOV: What is Gillum's path to victory? [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I hope that is understood. In fact, Nate Silver specifically emphasized about a month ago that Georgia and Texas were being overstated in terms of pick up opportunities, due to the tendency of those states to vote very red in statewide races. I agree with Nate's take:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-are-the-most-important-swing-voters-in-this-years-midterms/
natesilver: Ive become somewhat convinced, though, that the Sun Belt path e.g., picking up a ton of districts in states like Georgia and Texas is a little overrated for Democrats.
For one thing, those arent the districts where theyve performed all that well in special elections, as Nathaniel noted. But for another, theyre a bit redder than youd gather from looking at presidential elections both states are very red in state elections, for instance.