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In reply to the discussion: FL-GOV: What is Gillum's path to victory? [View all]ehrnst
(32,640 posts)42. Actually, Puerto Rico is socially conservative
The assumption is that Puerto Rico, once statehood is achieved, will vote Democratic.
In fact, it is impossible to predict how Puerto Rico will vote. Heres why:
Parties in Puerto Rico are different from those on the mainland. They center on the question of status. Rather than voting Democratic because their parents did, Puerto Ricans will choose the candidate who best represents their views.
Puerto Ricans are typically more socially conservative than the Democratic party on the mainland. We saw this in the recent survey of Puerto Rican voters in Florida and in the decision by a federal judge in Puerto Rico to uphold the ban on gay marriage.
Predictions about how territories will vote have historically been inaccurate. For example, it was widely believed that Hawaii would be a red state and Alaska a blue one. It is in fact the other way around.
States change their minds, too. The Southern Dixiecrats were actually a different political party from the Democrats, but the South was so heavily Democratic at one time that this was forgotten. Now, Southern states tend to vote Republican.
The idea that Puerto Rico would vote Democrat is in part based on voting patterns among mainland Hispanic voters. However, the majority of current U.S. Latino voters have Mexican roots, not Puerto Rican. Deciding that Puerto Ricans would follow the pattern of Mexican Americans is a lot like deciding that the French would be in political sync with Hatians. They might or they might not.
Parties in Puerto Rico are different from those on the mainland. They center on the question of status. Rather than voting Democratic because their parents did, Puerto Ricans will choose the candidate who best represents their views.
Puerto Ricans are typically more socially conservative than the Democratic party on the mainland. We saw this in the recent survey of Puerto Rican voters in Florida and in the decision by a federal judge in Puerto Rico to uphold the ban on gay marriage.
Predictions about how territories will vote have historically been inaccurate. For example, it was widely believed that Hawaii would be a red state and Alaska a blue one. It is in fact the other way around.
States change their minds, too. The Southern Dixiecrats were actually a different political party from the Democrats, but the South was so heavily Democratic at one time that this was forgotten. Now, Southern states tend to vote Republican.
The idea that Puerto Rico would vote Democrat is in part based on voting patterns among mainland Hispanic voters. However, the majority of current U.S. Latino voters have Mexican roots, not Puerto Rican. Deciding that Puerto Ricans would follow the pattern of Mexican Americans is a lot like deciding that the French would be in political sync with Hatians. They might or they might not.
http://www.pr51st.com/misconceptions-puerto-rico-statehood-puerto-rico-blue-state/
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Many Latinos in Florida are conservative. While Gillum does need to win a majority...
Garrett78
Aug 2018
#8
Florida in mid-terms is typically red and more purple in presidential years. So...
Garrett78
Aug 2018
#10
It's certainly to our advantage (one would think) that FL, GA, KS and OK have all...
Garrett78
Aug 2018
#37
Yes, but our turnout in presidential years is stronger relative to Republicans.
Garrett78
Aug 2018
#15